Archive for June 2012

06/29/12 – BUY THE DIP – QUALIFIED BUY © ™

June 29, 2012

INDEXES & INDICATORS

CHART LINK – at StockCharts.

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TWITTER UPDATES

MY TWEETS – If you follow my blog you should also follow my tweets as I’ll make important tweets in between blog updates.  My tweets will contain buy/sell signals and up to the minute comments.  If necessary, I’ll use multiple concurrent tweets to make my point.  My twitter name is @BobsWaveCounts

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LAST BUY/SELL SIGNAL

Buy the next dip

Sold on ???

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LONG TERM – Up in black 3, chart #10.8

INTERMEDIATE TERM –  Up in blue 3, chart #10.6

SHORT TERM – Up

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WHAT’S HAPPENING

Last time I said: “If we don’t significantly break the prior low (June 4, 2012), we should be in for a good rally back to the prior highs (or higher).”

We didn’t break the June 4th low and we didn’t work off the overbought.  If we continue to rally in an overbought situation, we could be in for one of those lengthy constantly overbought advances.  Those are the really good ones.  If this turns out to be the case (???), we could rally straight to the election and then start a big correction (or worse).  Lotsa bad things are possible but that’s a long ways off.  If we are going to rally into the election, there is a possible target figure on chart #30.9 of 1555 or 17% above yesterday’s close.  This is all a possibility until we are assured that the advance is solid.

On my last update, I was intrigued by the bottom that was posted on the next to last Fibonacci line.  I have often seen this take place and expected the decline to finish on this line.  The only thing that held me back on the last update was the overbought market.  It now appears “POSSIBLE” the we could be entering an extended overbought advance.  We should know the answer to that possibility soon.  If the market turns and fades too far, too fast, the whole buy signal will be negated.

We do need to overcome the 1355 to 1360 SPX closing level.  Until then this is a qualified buy the dip scenario.

If we see only two good looking steps down before resuming the advance, that’s  what I call “I can’t wait advance”.  It doesn’t form a completed 3rd step, or often the 1st step will be a higher high before turning down into lower step 2 and step 3.  When this happens, it solidifies the idea that we are in a strong advance.

06-29-12 SP FUTURES 19 MINUTE BARS

Looking at the above chart, it appears that we completed 1st step up which was followed by a double bottom June 25th and June 28th.

06-29-12 SP FUTURES 155 MINUTE BARS

The above chart shows the complete decline and wave count since April 1st to the present.  We likely have only completed step 1 up from June 4 through June 19.  We should be entering step 2 up.

JEFFREY SAUT

Listen to Jeff’s Friday comments.  We’re in agreement as usual.

Be patient, it’s almost 9 minutes long and take awhile to download.

06-29-12 Jeffrey Saut

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Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James is a very savvy guy and one of the few people that I follow.   I found Jeff among the talking heads on CNBC, which is normally filled with worthless bobble-headed people. When I saw Jeff the first time, he was  telling the audience different ideas than what everyone else was regurgitating.  Immediately this catches my attention because I’m ALWAYS interested in anyone that has a mind apart from Wall Street.  After listening to him over time, I realized this guy is smart, insightful and normally right on the mark.  I find people like this very infrequently.

The website for Raymond James Investment Planning

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CONTACT INFO

Bob@Market-Trend-Observations.com

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