2014 Tweets by Bob

03/06/17 . . .  by Bob Karrow

MY CHARTS

  • My charts consist of all the items that Paul Desmond warned about in his paper, “The Warning Signs Of Major Market Tops”, which you can find at the following link

WAVE COUNTS

  • If you aren’t familiar with my unorthodox wave counting method, there is a simple explanation at the beginning of the glossary. The glossary also contains lots of other details (explanations) that don’t appear in the blog.

TWEETS

T-THEORY ®

  • A lot of visitors to my blog are looking for information on T-Theory ®.  The below link will take you to the index of all of Terry’s comments during the period Dec 2003 to June 2011.  There are a considerable amount of charts and audio material from Terry Laundry in this section.
  • If you are looking for the ability to make your own predictions using T-THEORY ®, I would highly recommend Terry’s Encyclopedia on T-THEORY ®

EDSON GOULD

Dec 2014 – 130 TWEETS

  I think we are in last step down since Dec 26 and most of the step is probably behind us. pic.twitter.com/ZLZhAd13Xc

Did you see  taking  that aren’t  until 2015? I saw a lot of that today. Next up, is the  over???

 – Chart 1 – recovery after 2 steps down. Chart 2 – beginning of a downtrend? Watch yen closely for trend changes pic.twitpic.twitter.com/mE4bxyp1mt

 chart looks to be in the final stages of its present decline. In 3rd step down and waterfall taking place pic.twitter.com/QGVvHc9fQl

  &  have short term lower lows. First lower low since Dec 16 pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/y0u7ip0TTl

Jeff Saut is growing cautious looking for a 1st quarter  in the . That viewpoint seems legitimate to me too.

Remember small downtrend in the  I showed late yesterday. Present look at it.  and yen in lockstep. pic.twitter.com/db8fzXijqG

Bookmark the link for the  seen below. Us this link to watch movement of the yen. It’s a great reference for our .

 click link below investing.com/quotes/japanes… This  is the inverse of MY yen charts. It moves in the opposite direction of our market

 chart in almost lockstep with our . Notice small decline late today. Need to watch for more decline. pic.twitter.com/LSiKobeONW

Likely be a continuation of uptrend for most of this week. Beginning the following week, there “might” be a small decline. More later.

Since there is not much to report on recently, I’ve been working on an automated method of trading. Something I have NEVER done before.

 has small  change & a small decline expected in . Count looks like  has 2 small steps down pic.twitter.com/qMdaoDV1R8

 chart with an   showing  at the mid-level line. pic.twitter.com/kDqiJqVgVR

Happy Holidays There is no change in the outlook since the bottom signaled on Dec 16th. The surprising result is the speed of the uptrend.

30 minute chart of  & . Trades in same direction as US . Compare 2 charts for direction & timing. pic.twitpic.twitter.com/r6T4OiydPx

No one likes information overload because it confuses the reader. If I don’t post it’s because nothing has changed, or I kicked the bucket.

Page 8 on my charts at  is new. It compares 17 sector  lines. Look at the other pages toostockcharts.com/public/1169350

Market rose today & has been rising for 5 days, yet puts dominate. Turning bearish during a strong move upward seems bold & maybe stupid

CBOE PUT/CALL WAS 1.31 (131 PUTS BOT FOR EVERY 100 CALLS) ISE CALL/PUT WAS .70 (70 CALLS BOT FORE EVERY 100 PUTS) ??? pic.twitpic.twitter.com/JqaspSmwVw

Not much to comment on since the recent bottom. No resistance at the old peak of Dec 5. This time of year is hard to beat until after Jan 1

When I say this is the end of a “3” wave count, that’s me saying that a reversal has, or will take place. That wasn’t made clear on Dec 16

After a 4% rally in 2 days, I would have thought the call/put ratio would be higher. 148 calls for every 100 puts. pic.twitter.com/ock5gmxBLk

$SPY hasn’t had back-to-back gains of 1.95% since March 2009. Could happen today.

An interesting leading  of  conditions. See how it performed at the 2007 peak & 2009 bottom pic.twitter.com/333Grhf6lB

Russell Small Cap ($RUT) is close to prior high in late November. They now have greater relative strength than Lg Cap pic.twitter.com/wN1T3OZ0LZ

I would expect resistance to appear at the old  peak (Dec 5). The wave count will determine how long the resistance will last

“If Santa fails to call . . . the  will roam on Broad and Wall.” – Lucien Hooper Now the  are running for cover on 

I nailed the   2 days ago. Compare today’s with the chart from 2 days ago (see Dec 16th) pic.twitter.com/k3neCmVGiY

Early yesterday I said, “it must break the downtrend since Dec 5” Duhhhhh, I think we broke the downtrend with Dow up 600 points in 2 days

The decline stopped today at the 38% retracement level measuring from the Oct. bottom. pic.twitter.com/ELmcERmudC

No trend break after step 3. We are in a 5 step up? But when you lose track of the count on the upside, that’s great. pic.twitter.com/6ZYx5Gdd4v

The decline after step 3 should break the trend that began from the bottom near “1”. Then should begin purple 2 up. pic.twitter.com/QunFyvqrSE

Current rally looks like other rallies that occurred on the way down since Dec 5 That’s gotta change for good bottom pic.twitter.com/RODIdlbpyz

If the rally breaks the downtrend, will it go on to new highs??? More on that later. pic.twitter.com/lzTKOaS6QY

For this rally to be the end of a completed step down, it must break the downtrend since Dec 5. Hasn’t done that yet. pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/7VPkmbBRTo

First objective is to see the  rally above yesterday’s highs. The rally is very slow & taking its time to make a higher high

Yesterday, I tweeted “We should have completed the present step down in the “. Market  after that & rallied again.

  are stronger today than  stocks pic.twitpic.twitter.com/YX7axHPvtE

 are NOT making new lows today. That’s an encouraging theme. pic.twitter.com/yO5GxxUukv

Presently, most of the indexes are trying to make new lows. We’ll see if they thrust downward or wander around near this morning’s low.

Jeff Saut  believes that we will make a   this week, which will set up the Santa Claus .

This is the completion of 3 steps down. If the rally doesn’t materialize, it would mean we will get 5 steps down. pic.twitter.com/GJTlNowXkU

We should have completed the present step down in the Failure to rally significantly would be a bad omen pic.twitter.com/qYgVMGvcBq

 (JNK) are falling at a faster rate. pic.twitter.com/AHefBwYMsB

Weekly   are not going in the right direction. In this , the claims are shown inverse pic.twitter.com/GiaxugfiCJ

An expanding triangle (), or  in the $SPX  pic.twitter.com/02CayBM37w

The  is approaching a buy zone. This signal isn’t valid until the ADX reverses direction and moves deeper. pic.twitter.com/QP6uOdutUa

The shorter term  is in the  zone pic.twitter.com/VTPSW1lUhe

The longer term  is in the  zone pic.twitter.com/1jZEdwtZHl

Today the   index made a lower low () below the October low.

If Santa doesn’t get his butt over to Wall St. soon, it’s gonna be: “If Santa fails to call . . . the  will roam on Broad and Wall.”

One more new low & we should rally. The rally should carry back to the 2055-60 area. If not, things will get worse. pic.twitter.com/RFm20E4q6G

U.A.E. Sees OPEC Output Unchanged Even If Oil Falls to $40

 indicates should have 2 more declines & then rally after the 2nd decline. It should produce a decent rally pic.twitter.com/wMtAhjuVPk

PAGE 4 CHART 3 –   Money not moving into bear funds or money market funds. Sentiment is feeling safe pic.twitter.com/UYt9HyeqgT

PAGE 3 CHART 2 – – WEEKLY UNEMPLOYMENT This weeks  report didn’t make for good reading. Jobs chart is inverted pic.twitter.com/PnyRXyt79h

PAGE 2 CHART 8 – – AVERAGE PRICE RELATIVE TO 52-WEEK HIGH from my  at stockcharts.com/public/1169350pic.twitter.com/3pWSaLCY9n

PAGE 2 CHART 6 – –  ENVELOPE, SHORTER TERM Short term  & almost over sold in long term pic.twitpic.twitter.com/iSsw0XgIAn

 warning with a non-confirmation in the  Index PAGE 2 CHART 0 – – DOW THEORY pic.twitter.com/KPPkW5jdqb

PAGE 1 CHART 9 – – STOCKS ABOVE 20 DAY MOVING AVERAGE from my  at stockcharts.com/public/1169350 pic.twitter.com/eRwZVSBMcH

 with a name similar to “PAGE 1 CHART 7” or one that has a white background means it comes from my stockcharts.com/public/1169350

PAGE 1 CHART 7 – – % ABOVE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE Lower peaks in these charts while indexes move to higher highs pic.twitter.com/PvICxX351u

Declining  line peaks versus a rising  5000 index. pic.twitter.com/0jy1KCJiBl

Lower high in the  line versus the  price Index. This  from stockcharts.com/public/1169350pic.twitter.com/gUKb2SAg3i

 prices plunging,  are worried   issuers can’t meet obligations, predicts  rate will double to 8% next year.

Some  fund’s are making money on ‘s plunge. Any large unanticipated move can cause . That can affect the entire 

The  tumbled to a record low for 2nd day, ’s intervened to slow the rout for an economy verging on recession.

The  gets very uneasy when  drops below 1%. We could be seeing below 1% figures in the months ahead.

FED should become more dovish after oil prices plunged in recent weeks. U.S. is NOT moving in the direction of its 2% inflation target.

US oil drillers idled the most rigs in two years as they face oil trading below $60 a barrel & escalating competition from suppliers abroad.

  measured by  &  show here before government figures (lagging indicator) pic.twitter.com/UrL8R0pRE3

The  has strong relation ship with  FTSE All-World ex-USA stock index. When will it get back in step?? pic.twitter.com/Sn1bdiC89Q

While the U.S. economy is in much stronger shape than foreign economies, it isn’t immune from foreign stock trends.

IEA cut its forecast for global oil demand for 5th time in 6 months. It attributed lack of demand to weakening global economic conditions.

Other central banks are beginning to throw money at their economies. See a trend yet??? As long as prices don’t decline, there’s no problem.

The deflation cure is to throw lotsa money at the problem. One hiccup, the US and Japan have been throwing lotsa money for some time.

Central banks like a “little” inflation, but when faced with a hint of deflation, they get frightened. The solution to deflation is to . . .

It’s the out of control decline in oil that has me unsettled. I don’t like looking a gift horse in the mouth, but there could be problems.

Lower oil prices is like a tax cut to the consumer and they should spend more money and create a good Christmas season for business.

BUT when prices are cut to gain market share, because they can afford it due to higher profits, others will follow to retain market share

I’m a technician and this is a fundamental problem (??) Oil has an impact on most products. Lower oil prices translates into higher profits.

Oil just keeps falling. The chart shows the last 10 days where oil fell from $70 to about $57. pic.twitter.com/yJPskV7Rlu

 is falling today & that means that our  is up today.  has been almost perfect recently pic.twitter.com/kl0konXz1a

  are still declining, probably due to their holdings in . No profits means default. pic.twitter.com/QhIqn9rHFD

Today’s    decline has not made lower lows. Smaller caps are stronger again today. pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/Y5dehyVKy7

The  is rallying & the  is declining. The opposite move relationship is not exact in time, but close pic.twitter.com/exnRvkx4mb

Oil is having a hard time finding time for a rally. It’s just keeps falling. Don’t try to catch the falling sword. pic.twitter.com/5x7Vo0SyQn

Crude could fall to as low as $40 a barrel amid a price war or if divisions emerge in OPEC, said an official at Iran’s oil ministry.

Energy accounts for as much as half the cost to produce food & metals, commodities will keep dropping, say Societe Generale SA and Citigroup

Small caps are performing better than mid & larger cap stocks. Small & Micro cap have made up all they lost on Mon pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/RVEWFhJOoY

“If Santa fails to call, the bears will roam on Broad and Wall.” – Lucien Hooper

“Think of it this way. Lower oil prices are to America what low labor prices were to the BRICs!”… Sara Eisen

  was tilted towards the put side today. 66 calls for every 100 puts. pic.twitter.com/ALhEr31q09

Small triangle showing at the close today in the  Industrial futures. pic.twitter.com/JEFBT6mw7z

60 minute ADX “may” need more decline to complete the rally signal. This ADX is less reliable than daily ADX. pic.twitter.com/pPej7pJt2K

I’ve shown this   before & still don’t know if it’s valid. It hasn’t been invalidated yet. pic.twitter.com/2UwdQJr7TG

Recent lower high in the  index,  index. Others made recent highs. pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/qdV34MrFQt

 in  since Oct low appears different & MAY only have 2 steps up. One more gasp for a 3rd step???? pic.twitter.com/oGAbo8vVxn

The apparent  in the small caps since the October lows. pic.twitter.com/WXMkKHV5yx

Daily envelopes showing the longer term boundaries of these indexes. Prior chart envelopes were 60 minute bars. pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/SsNyV0HfZq

The envelopes have done a good job of showing upper & lower boundaries of the indexes followed. pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/eNuE6cZILk

Emerging markets have not shown the same strength since the October lows, lotsa relative weakness. pic.twitter.com/Mf0FFydhjp

Upper left section of chart has symbol, time interval for each bar, price, today’s net change, today’s % change pic.twitter.com/B3gvneQumG

 &  weakness, while a nice rally is going on in  pic.twitpic.twitter.com/KELz4xlLUn

  are having lotsa weakness & are lower than their Oct low. Likely due to defaults coming in oil shale pic.twitter.com/HztzsmCmQJ

Interestingly, the    are not as weak as the pic.twitpic.twitter.com/mf6Ht9PM6K

As expected, the  is rising. Our  has had an opposite correlationship with the Yen for some time. pic.twitter.com/oPoJaO9Q29

NASDAQ doesn’t have a meaningful lower low yet. If it happens, we are only in step 2 down pic.twitpic.twitter.com/dTtuQ2qjMT

Hindenburg Omen has been unreliable at predicting tops, however it has been triggered prior to every major top. – Mike Burke on Hidenburg

High levels of new lows, relatively high levels of new highs has triggered a Hindenburg Omen for the past 6 consecutive trading sessions.

Junk bond ETFs may have a significant exposure to debt in oil shale projects, which may default on their debt because of low oil prices

Advisor who isn’t regurgitating typical market babble from Wall St. Original thinking makes him interesting to me. bloomberg.com/video/milton-b…

I’m unsure how much (if any) I will be tweeting this week. Got lotsa irons in the fire at the moment. That’s why I posted lotsa charts today

Weakness continued into the close on the smaller cap indexes pic.twitpic.twitter.com/MSxyJBXOtJ

Daily  gave a sell signal last week & is now moving away from the signal lines. See ADX rules on Page 2 Chart 7 pic.twitter.com/l38TYf5oZ1

Upper line of  for Russell micro-caps is stopping the advance pic.twitter.com/4bW17ujX4b

 are  large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap & micro-cap. Strength dwindles from larger caps to smallest caps pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/B7MFNNbicx

Many indexes gapped down today. Dow Jones Industrials didn’t decline proportionately today. Charts are  & pic.twitpic.twitter.com/fmC75Cu7jB

 made double top at last week’s high, the recent peak is below September high. Banks gapped down hard today pic.twitter.com/qIiV2Hdl5d

Junk bonds had a heart attack last Friday and today (Monday). pic.twitter.com/uUD96C8lJz

If there is going to be stock market weakness, it should come this week & next week. Seasonality has upward bias after that – Jeff Saut

Freaky Friday: More Disturbing Behavior From The  – Dana Lyons

If shoppers don’t turn out for Christmas & after Xmas sales, then Wall St can have a heart attack. Gift cards don’t count in sales figures.

Retail sales disappointed & Wall St had heart attack. Lower gas prices, more jobs means higher sales, shoppers are waiting for the good deal

Looking at charts in last tweet, waiting to see lower lows in small caps to signal something significant is happening (probable).

Small cap shows 3 steps up, NASDAQ has 2 pauses & a correction, SP500 & DJIA show an uninterrupted rally until today pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/SucU9DLLoh

Nov 2014 – 102 TWEETS

Yen is rallying & IF continues, US market should correct. They have had a close inverse relationship for couple years pic.twitter.com/6P8NCBWLcQ

Funny but sometimes true. I buy big ticket items during a recession when sales are slow and discounts are very big pic.twitter.com/1iTz0rhDtq

Scenario #2 would take years to complete. If true, a great buying opportunity equivalent to March 2009 occurs during correction after cyan 3

Scenario #2: finish yellow step 5 in cyan 3, begin 35% correction, followed by bull market cyan 4 & 5 pic.twitter.com/zYUsLWYBjd

One scenario based on the wave count, finish yellow step 5 in cyan 3 and begin a major bear market pic.twitter.com/suHk4sldgg

This is the wave count as I see it presently, beginning in 2009 pic.twitter.com/2f03eaFVCV

Last 3 days have been small fluctuations, caused by Thanksgiving. Last 3 days were inside, outside and inside days pic.twitter.com/bQ24Hrqcpz

According to Goldman Sachs, for every 0.50% slowdown in the world’s economic growth, it only affects U.S. GDP growth by less than 0.13%

Is the downward  going to hold the upper line??? Purple Bar =  Yellow Bar =  pic.twitter.com/7l9IU43KJA

The SKEW is rising again and is at warning levels for a correction. pic.twitter.com/94G7uNkfGE

My public chart link on StockCharts is: stockcharts.com/public/1169350/There are some interesting charts at this link that should be followed.

According to Sentient Trader, the Oct low was a 50 month (4 year) Hurst cycle low. pic.twitter.com/T07XBzVsz5

Sentient Trader predicts 80 day Hurst cycle low in Jan & 40 day cycle low within a week pic.twitter.com/BKCSVRzBcJ

Long Term Viewpoint U.S.  are 2nd Most  In History – Dana Lyons pic.twitter.com/0dDOxbz7b2

Interesting cycle for peaks, showing a peak anytime presently pic.twitter.com/6k2LDwRv3J

 in a downtrend, looks like 2 steps down completed. The latest & smaller decline shows 3 steps down pic.twitter.com/PV2AUoF4BX

Today  touched the  of the envelope. The  should slow more, or decline pulling back from  pic.twitter.com/8QdY7XE1Ki

When the small caps show a significant higher high above the 11/13/14 peak, it will signal step 2 up from the Oct bottom.

I was thinking about posting this chart yesterday showing small caps were oversold & could rally, today they rally pic.twitter.com/gWQpLeb26a

See the relationship of 30 year bond rates to the US  on the chart PAGE 4 CHART 6 at  stockcharts.com/public/1169350

A strong dollar creates low inflation, but does that carry over to 30 YEAR RATES, which were declining long before the dollar was strong???

After WWII we had low long term interest rates. This created economic growth & stocks that went up for decades. Future deflation or growth??

The long term cost of money indicates that historically something unusual is going to take place. What is it & when does it take place???

Would you loan money to the Treasury for 30 years @ 3% – NO. But if you thought deflation was going to take place, you would loan the money.

THE PRIOR TWEET SHOWS THERE ARE NO INFLATION EXPECTATIONS OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS.

The 2.32% yield on 10-year Treasuries compares with 0.80% on 10-year German Bunds & 0.50% on 10-year Japanese government bonds.

Small cap showing the end of a step up, while large cap shows no break in trend . . . yet pic.twitpic.twitter.com/I4tCUp26LX

Daily charts of small & micro caps are declining &  is not correcting . . . yet pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/v1Y1Vs8iNF

 daily chart with possible steps pic.twitter.com/roVj1GLWEh

Yen chart, 5th step is not complete but it may be forming, which ends larger 3 down. Yen rally should develop at 3 pic.twitter.com/kfFqOMbhoQ

 above their 200 day moving average have hit a wall and  is declining. In general most stocks have slowed pic.twitpic.twitter.com/zoHjK27s0X

New high have slowed noticeably pic.twitpic.twitter.com/mO1FBHWZMt

Other than larger caps, advance decline lines are struggling. Large caps made new highs, showing a selective market pic.twitpic.twitter.com/9U7cZtgkUu

Japanese economy slipped into recession in the 3rd quarter, a surprisingly poor performance. GDP declined by annualized 1.6% in 3rd quarter

Orange County is recycling wastewater into drinking water by 50%. The filtered water is pure, it goes straight to the reservoirs – – YUMMY

Lower gas prices couldn’t come at better time of year for retailers. They should have good Christmas season, if not, it’s big disappointment

World economy is in its worst shape in two years, with the euro area & emerging markets deteriorating & in danger of deflation – Bloomberg

 &  are losing their relative strength in the last couple of days pic.twitter.com/kvTGf5EPUX

Current average price relative to the 52 week high low, expressed as a percentage – This index is still trending down pic.twitter.com/YanC5vb1ni

Current deterioration in the number of stocks above their 20 day average  &  pic.twitter.com/5BdVka3Jrr

 &  indicators high / low and high – low for each index pic.twitpic.twitter.com/r4oTkT186Q

Showing dwindling upside momentum in the new highs for various indexes. This is “PAGE 1 CHART 5” of my charts. pic.twitpic.twitter.com/NJaQp6HBdw

My charts on  is at stockcharts.com/public/1169350 I update the pertinent red, green alerts &  about once per week

4) Thursday’s 0.93% loss in the Russell 2000 was the 4th worst ever on a day the Nasdaq 100 made a 52-Week High – @JLyonsFundMgmt

3) On Thursday NYSE Breadth was the 3rd worst ever for a Dow Jones Industrial Average 52-Week High – @JLyonsFundMgmt

2) On Thursday breadth on the Nasdaq was the 2nd worst ever for a 52-Week High in the Nasdaq Composite – @JLyonsFundMgmt

1) On Thursday breadth on the NYSE + Nasdaq was among the worst ever on an up day in the S&P 500 – Dana Lyons

My thoughts are that the   could  on Sun – Mon one more time & then correct. But nobody bet the farm on that 

Indications that we could get a small  in the first half of next week  is so strong that predicting a correction is crazy

@Stock_Trend_Chg  30 minute chart looks like it’s in a 5 step 

  index in both charts with a RSI on #1 and a stochastic indicator on #2 pic.twitpic.twitter.com/SKy3kMg2QC

Possible wave count on the falling  The Yen has been falling in perfect tandem with our market rising. pic.twitter.com/Ff3xPRWpNx

I’m cutting down the number of charts that I have in Sierra Charts. If I don’t have the time to look at each chart every day, it’s junk.

An    for buy and sell points. pic.twitter.com/vOkEm6hfw4

A “possible” wave count, which is probably step 1 of 3. The trend break will determine when this step is broken. pic.twitter.com/KxNn7hKcFv

A disparity is occurring presently. A slowing of the advance is enough to cause this small non-confirmation. pic.twitter.com/kOvs7UNl1A

I posted this chart some days back. When prices met the max envelope line, the advance slowed considerably. pic.twitter.com/hwUWMcqS6K

Not a month since blastoff on Oct 16 & the  has gained more than 12% Not tweeting much lately as I wait for something new & significant

No MAJOR divergences in my charts, but the market is VERY overbought Jeff Saut is cautious short term, but very bullish for the long term

The Yen is falling again. This has translated into higher prices for our market. QE has shifted from USA to Japan. pic.twitter.com/2Q5NmBQBov

Friday was day 17 of the buying panic that began on Oct 16. Buying panics “normally” last 17 to 25 days. Trading top is due – Jeff Saut

Yen chart 1, SPX chart 2 Yen is moving up today. If it continues next week, watch our market’s response. pic.twitpic.twitter.com/R5t7QBt8hJ

Ukraine Liveblog: Intense Shelling In Lugansk Region. interpretermag.com/ukraine-livebl…

Ukraine’s MFA: Russian invasion — 30 trucks, radar equipment, 32 tanks, & 16 howitzers entered Ukraine near Lugansk bit.ly/1wCcCya

DJ Transports have achieved their measurement level from the inverse head and shoulders formation formed since 2007 pic.twitter.com/WikL01jl4H

Short term  of SPX futures pic.twitter.com/D7A55Bnlys

“& buy an asset in the 2nd currency” They would buy stock & bonds denoted in the 2nd currency. This is important buying power for our market

Carry trade is like shorting the yen. One way is to borrow the yen, trade the yen for another currency, & buy an asset in the 2nd currency.

Large caps are pushing ahead and smaller caps are farther behind. We’ll see if the market can breakout and make significant higher highs???

Long inverse head and shoulders in the transports is almost at the projected level. pic.twitter.com/7h4U7iVVBS

 in recent minutes failed to make new high. “IF” market closes for a loss today, we would have a reversal day

Today’s comparitive market action between   and futures. pic.twitpic.twitter.com/Bbp78AFf7D

Two possible gold wave counts. Yellow wave counts see an end in sight, but cyan count says bottom is long ways off ?? pic.twitter.com/IkA4ZCX52a

 fan line based on 2000 peak and 2003 low pic.twitter.com/1lGzi11BH4

 Russell small cap chart with possibly valid trend line. pic.twitter.com/z4FCGTCHol

Won’t be clear if we are are ending step 3 for awhile. It ain’t over until its over. pic.twitter.com/6P9iW2uGpq

 chart #1,  chart #2 Touching upper envelope means slower going upward or down. pic.twitpic.twitter.com/kych4vvvVg

Measurement prediction after recent lows. Almost made it to the predicted high & missed by 3  points pic.twitter.com/Zse5RJJCxp

Going into a small 3rd step up in  . We’ll see if breakdown takes place afterwards or something lesser. pic.twitter.com/hkTJRRsW4d

Junk bond recent weakness. Junk bonds have always been the canary in the coal mine. pic.twitter.com/wbako4kMBu

 chart #1,  chart #2 Smaller caps are edging downward quicker than the larger caps pic.twitpic.twitter.com/6VJVKjrweZ

Our QE program has ended, but Japan’s QE still goes on with a recent boost upward on 10/31.

Yen chart #1, SPX chart #2 The  and  since late 2012. Oct 2012 saw the end of a correction. pic.twitpic.twitter.com/EUn6Do52Bk

On a positive note, the  is still falling making a new low today. Falling yen is positive to a rising market here pic.twitter.com/Wp76HiQlO5

Junk bonds are falling again. Most indexes haven’t made significant new highs, some haven’t made new highs. Meaningful? Maybe, but be wary

A correction could finally take place in the market. But it’s possible we could be having a high level correction presently. We’ll see later

1st chart is SPX, 2nd chart is SPX futures Look at 2nd chart, the advance has made little or no headway since 10/31 pic.twitpic.twitter.com/lXxIfcx7MG

Lots of pessimism after the strong rally. Ratio calls/ puts was 81 or for every 100 puts bot, there were 81 calls bot pic.twitter.com/9mF4sv39PK

Explaining Quantum Mechanics, with more weird stuff ???sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/…

“emotional low” followed by rally, then 6-8 weeks of consolidation, SPX declines & tests the low & sometimes breaks below low – Jeff Saut

V-type bottoms are rare, & that’s what we saw on Oct 15/16th. Typically what happens is a decline into an “emotional low” – Jeff Saut

Nikkei with downtrend line and 2009 pitchfork. Recent uptrend in Tokyo attributed to declining Yen pic.twitter.com/3tigZQXWnd

Look for Republicans to win back Senate leading to upside blow off in the market, which I would use to take some profits – Jeff Saut

 always repeats, only the details change –  Edson Gould’s  articles stock-market-observations.com/category/2-eds…

Super Secret Indicator DJUA participated in correction. Previously it rallied during a correction. Attention needed. pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/9orc4G2Pcu

Super Secret Indicator DJTA participated in correction. Previously it rallied during a correction. Attention needed. pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/EkDmOC3pFO

Super Secret Indicator DJIA participated in correction. Previously it rallied during a correction. Attention needed. pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/Dx0saoG30F

Maybe we will have a blowoff phase (lasting months) before we have a market correction. Money trumps EVERYTHING.

The Yen (green area) is shown INVERSE to match the stock market direction. The YEN could be a BIG deal in our market pic.twitter.com/Ytp9pHPOD1

Previous tweet – you can see that the falling yen affected our market for a lot of months. This “could” mean our market will rise for months

Keep your eye on the Yen for direction in our stock market. Yen fell after BOJ increased monetary stimulus 10/31/14 pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/b8Q0IVrUXY

Oct 2014 – 320 TWEETS

One of the measurements targets today’s level. pic.twitter.com/mdT168v7a3

Russell lg to micro cap are on the envelope limit or exceeding the limit. Beginning of slower rally or minor reversal pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/KeM24KxjxH

Hard to count rally so I’ll resist trying to count because it’s been wrong. The channels are trying to tell a story pic.twitter.com/dvSimeXkTl

Upper yellow trend line was tested and crushed. Blue pitchfork midline is still in force. pic.twitter.com/uKnNEBn2c2

Dow Theory Buy signal occurred today. Does this mark a parabolic phase or blowoff? We won’t worry about that for now. pic.twitter.com/BrzwAWsYVg

Smaller caps still leading off of the bottom. They lead market down and now lead upward. pic.twitter.com/k2qH2U6SjP

 is still relevant, penetration of trendline today wasn’t important. Now we’ll see if top line is in force pic.twitter.com/HSj0YCL11v

Since the close today, the   have been making lower highs and higher lows. Definitely a triangle and it’s nearly at the apex.

Nighttime activity for   pic.twitter.com/Tlw4txM3qN

Comments indicates confusion on how I count steps. First, it’s NOT Elliott Wave. Read the link to understand. stock-market-observations.com/category/3-rea…

 ended the day with 2 steps down. Lg caps only have 1 step down. More steps to come? pic.twitter.com/XYJNgxrcU6

How the chart ended the day that I was watching closely today. Support came where expected. What happens tomorrow??? pic.twitter.com/4sMEXylu1a

Support on the  line pic.twitter.com/q1486v7xDv

So what happened with the FED? We are “possibly” in a downtrend but unproven until we see lower lows. Presently, it’s a sit and wait game.

Market could rally and then correct, or correct after FED statement without a rally. Market does everything to fool you. That’s way it works

Failed to draw trend lines on prior chart. pic.twitter.com/I7XlMBjMxG

Junk bonds (JNK) fails to participate in rally recently. Obviously forming a triangle. Watch for breakout, up or down pic.twitter.com/RGCS0Y7siU

What is unexpected price action??? Lower lows and lower highs are very good ones.

All reasons to be careful, but don’t abandon ship yet. Wait for a good reason to take your profits and that means unexpected price action

The  is very close to the peak before the recent meltdown. Trading with a lower high at the moment. pic.twitter.com/ywBpla3kWy

1st chart , 2nd chart , 3rd chart . Failure today to make high on 3rd chart. WATCH CLOSELY TOO pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/CkTS9F3CCf

A chart I’m going to watch very closely today. If there is disappointment in FED statement, chart will be important pic.twitter.com/yHzRMF3qVu

@taxfreelt I don’t use Elliott 4 my counts. I count the thrusts up & down. Translating into Elliott, we are probably in short term 3 of 5.

Does the present advance show we are only in 2nd step up??? A real possibility. pic.twitter.com/WBvMACvk8X

 breaking last downtrend  lines, showing uptrend  lines are now relevant pic.twitter.com/znxNCd2OYW

Sweden’s Decision to Cut Key Rate to Zero Shows Low Inflation Is Trumping Financial Stability Concerns

Financial Sense website, Chris Puplava recently quoted central bankers who expressed view that ending stimulus right now could be premature

If market continues advancing up to FED announcement, expect market to advance after announcement. Sometimes the post advance can be brisk

A nice breakout to the upside for the micro cap and small caps. DJ Transports at a new high today. JNK is lethargic pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/Xg3M9uN4rp

@Stock_Trend_Chg The uptrend may not be finished yet. Another knock on last week’s highs and then correct. Significant highs not expected

Jeff Saut has a very good record, but my question is where is he at & who is doing his updates ???? I hope everything is OK with Jeff.

advise some caution here and it may make sense to wait for a better entry point for any new purchases – Jeff Saut

Due for another round of selling, but not all the way down to the recent lows if current strength is to be believed. – Jeff Saut

What happens if Republicans win the Senate? Voters are pissed & anything is possible. It might be one of the problems bothering stock market

Good looking 2 steps down in   pic.twitter.com/Z8tLDCnhlr

Elon Musk said “With artificial intelligence, we are summoning the demon.” Biblical said MarketWatch, I say he realizes the future problems

In the small cap wave count below, we would expect the rally after step 2 to be higher in time and price than what occurred in step 1.

At the moment the symmetry looks good in the small cap wave count, but that can be destroyed easily. Presently, it’s just a “what if” idea.

Smaller cap possible wave counts??? pic.twitpic.twitter.com/mSpX20Bl0B

Large caps wave count pic.twitpic.twitter.com/D8nXdrhsS1

Smaller indexes show more than 1 step down. Large caps show 1 step. Meaningful? We’ll find out soon enough. Charts follow in next tweet

If market slogs through here without SIGNIFICANT new recovery highs. It could represent 3 steps up and then we might resume the decline.

The volume is falling, the volume is falling This happens every time after heavy liquidation & doesn’t mean anything. pic.twitter.com/tUpTAZIOOQ

Today the smaller cap step count is easier to determine than larger caps pic.twitpic.twitter.com/UGIlOxWrr8

Larger cap step count is harder to determine than smaller caps pic.twitpic.twitter.com/DU1q3qF466

Market is having problems making a significant . This is exactly where we would expect resistance to occur pic.twitter.com/vIrlaSFFNO

Downtrend  fan lines is still working and has turned market down pic.twitter.com/VTjk4HHhbG

Market is breaking short term uptrend channel – ending the count for this wave pic.twitter.com/QiY1MjHlFh

Since rally began, market hasn’t traded below mid-line, today it broke thru & has resistance to mid-line on upside pic.twitter.com/j6q5sKa9OJ

True  is a huge problem to overcome. Japan represents a modern problem in deflation, while the US in the 1930s was the standard

True deflation turns into the opposite of inflation. Consumers wait to buy because they know they can buy for less in the future

Deflation from a lower demand, like the EU – can be big trouble. Deflation from a boost in supply, like the U.S. gas boom is beneficial.

My early investment history on my blog. Some of it’s goofy because all newbies screw up badly – sooner or later. stock-market-observations.com/2013/12/05/124…

 writings on my blog. These articles probably can’t be found anywhere else on the internet stock-market-observations.com/2014/07/20/eds…

‘s ® lessons on my blog courtesy of T-Theory® Foundation. stock-market-observations.com/category/terry…

Terry Laundry’s T Theory® lessons on my blog courtesy of T-Theory® Foundation. stock-market-observations.com/category/terry…

Edson Gould writings on my blog. These articles probably can’t be found anywhere else on the internet stock-market-observations.com/category/2-eds…

History repeats because people remain the same & continue to make the same mistakes over & over. On Wall St, fear & greed rule forever

Perfect example of an old book being pertinent today. “One Way Pockets” written in 1917 and as true today as then. amazon.com/ONE-WAY-POCKET…

Don’t make the mistake that if a book isn’t relatively new, it isn’t pertinent. I made that mistake early in life and it was a big mistake.

“Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.” is free because the copyright ran out (1852). Great History book.

Download a free book about crowd behavior. “Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.” books.google.com/books?id=NmEOA…

CNBC ratings match public participation in market. Naturally novice will follow CNBC & eventually lose in long run pic.twitter.com/S2l65TMC3V

Thankfully not everyone follows CNBC & find it to be nothing but Wall Street gloss and cheerleading. Good for them. pic.twitter.com/0MJLPFXDvF

Why do so many listen faithfully to talking heads on CNBC? Only a couple of talking heads know what they’re doing. The rest are THE CROWD

If you bought the rally as directed, hold on tight. The hardest part of a bull market is staying on. – Anonymous

The market had it’s best week since January 2013. That was a kickoff surge in the market. Is it true again?

Individual people have all the rights, the masses have none – at least the NJ ebola scare nurse thinks that’s true.

Nurse at N.J. Airport Criticizes Ebola Reaction – USA, when I was a kid with measles, health dept. posted our house with red QUARANTINE sign

Why did the EU just do a bank stress test? USA been doing that since 2008. But we all know in similar situations, they’ll fail, test or not

These banks must/will raise capital quickly as the EU is in danger of recession. Bank failure’s can only make an EU recession worse.

France & Spain had no bank stress failures, while Germany had 1 bank fail. Greece, Cyprus, & Italy had the most failures.

EU – 123 banks in 22 countries went thru stress test, 24 banks failed but should have been 34. Weakest EU countries had the most failures.

What the FED will do next week by Mohamed A. El-Erianbloombergview.com/articles/2014-…

Major correction from the peak would carry back to the peak of large step 2 (May 2011). That has good symmetry to it pic.twitter.com/yl7lVB25Er

I can’t discount that we just finished step 4 and not step 5. More upside to go if we just finished step 4. pic.twitter.com/UYHZdwA4NH

Strongest period of the 4 year Presidential Cycle, starts late October of the 2nd year running through August of the 3rd year – Mike Burke

65 month  from important bottoms pic.twitter.com/ajjPnYKnfI

An interesting  showing all of  3 since 2011 pic.twitter.com/IUy485HX3X

One example showing the possible ending of the  with a 5 count in the   pic.twitter.com/hEVjck7JqU

Notice when an  is penetrated, it doesn’t stay long on the other side of the .

Look at the   go on a tear to the pic.twitter.com/jFkuZ2ktBy

 taking a time out too pic.twitter.com/DdOrvoXJMi

 for  since 2009 bottom pic.twitter.com/aLUo7TcQyu

  lines since March 2009 bottom pic.twitter.com/a69FSH4KeP

A possible  containment in the  pic.twitter.com/OklV9J7vkZ

We have to wait and see if  catch up to the   or if the reverse takes place. Lots more decline if that happens.

 &   appear weak compared to lg cap. Lg cap recent correction looks like a blip in pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/go7EEW66O9

Upside  levels from recent bottom pic.twitter.com/8TBuAdBIEG

 levels from prior  may still create resistance on the  pic.twitter.com/aXLmJ6rGDL

 lines from   that may cause resistance in the   pic.twitter.com/KlEa3TnXKt

 &  levels match at present price. Obvious consolidation level after 5  up pic.twitter.com/YVwWFiHc3T

 in this chart for micro caps with a declining RSI line. The declining line could be setup for a correction pic.twitter.com/1jT2ItzbT8

Notice the   line in this  for the pic.twitter.com/6XduLiQm6T

Fibonacci lines that appear valid as they are support and resistance. pic.twitter.com/FFc7NOHVFi

2 steps down tonight. Good sign if market won’t retrace & allow another good buy point. Be aware of all alternatives pic.twitter.com/WI1egNYhuJ

THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE OVER NORTH AMERICA OF OCT 2014live.slooh.com/stadium/live/t… pic.twitpic.twitter.com/yCmCmd1Mcz

Chart 1 – large caps, chart 2 – micro-caps. Small caps don’t have as much rally power as large caps. pic.twitpic.twitter.com/7n5L91tdqM

Bears are surprised at the rebound as they fail to understand how ADDICTED the market has become to liquidity.

@Stock_Trend_Chg Uhhhhh . . . mostly less than 3 days. If this market breaks further away from the the Tue top that would be a good sign.

@Hoefgeest that was made famous in the USA during the Vietnam era

Multiple 90% Down Days Since 2012 Post: tmblr.co/Zyun3q1SpBoNtpic.twitter.com/X2pUcqfAZ2

I think I failed to mention that today’s correction is probably not finished. It should be done in 3 days or less.

My gut says this isn’t the end of the , it’s an example of “what if” thinking. The  peak is probably several years away

@wekim77 My gut says this isn’t the end, it’s just an example of “what if”. I think the megaphone peak would be several years from now

If worst case  scenario is correct, things don’t go to hell immediately. Hell takes awhile to arrive & tops take time to evolve

If purple 3 is correct, cyan 3 is automatically generated & white 3 is automatically generated. Purple 3 is important pic.twitter.com/GSSdN3jWlI

 with worst case scenario for the  showing is over?? Count to purple 2 is correct then??? pic.twitter.com/XWk4kCw1KQ

The sky is falling . . . the sky is falling pic.twitter.com/rQjveQZjFw

SP 500 has hit a Fibonacci retracement level. These can be levels for the market to take a breather. pic.twitter.com/h4gHuPVVZz

Potential support and resistance 2nd chart shows levels above current prices pic.twitpic.twitter.com/ZqHPUjSf5y

“With central banks more concerned about a return to recession than about asset-price bubbles, they have little choice but to step back in”

PAGE 2 CHART 4 – – SPX ENVELOPE SHORTER TERM OSCILLATORS Short term oscillators hit overbought, but we know market doesn’t have to turn now

The upward angle of the rally changed today. It has a much steeper angle presently. We’ll see if that’s meaningful pic.twitter.com/1NGfA8kUt9

Well that looks like a good rally Rally began last Thursday & it’s more than 3 days old, we “could” not should, have a short correction here

Investors in $3 trillion of assets have been warning of the potential for “stranded assets” — oil projects that turn unprofitable.

Roughly 3 million more barrels a day are being produced now in the USA than in 2011.

Most shale regions are profitable below $80, including the Bakken & Eagle Ford formations. Eagle Ford would still be profitable at $50 oil.

Bond holders who have loaned money to oil prospectors are getting worried they won’t get paid back.

Crude prices near $80 a barrel, about 25 percent of the synthetic crude produced from the sands is no longer profitable,

Sweden’s Submarine Whodunit Brings Cold War Back to Baltic Sea

Oil at $80 a Barrel Muffles Forecasts for U.S. Shale Boom

. . . become the biggest oil producer in the world by 2015 When pigs fly.

International Energy Agency predicted in Nov, the US would pass Russia & Saudi Arabia to become the biggest producer in the world by 2015

Oil dropped to $79.78 a barrel on 10/16, the lowest since 6/12. At that level, one-third of U.S. shale oil production would be uneconomic !!

We had mini retest on 15th & 16th, but larger one “could” take place. I will be ready for anything on another retest pic.twitter.com/QmUTQY0IGC

Now I’m more interested in the quality and probable longevity of this rally. Seems OK so far. Hasn’t finished step 1 up yet.

We could have more downside, steps 4 & 5, but it doesn’t seem likely at the moment. It’s more likely that this phase of decline is finished.

Lotsa damage done to this chart that had formed higher lows for a little over a year. We’ll see the quality of rally pic.twitter.com/BSWbfmABBN

Watching to see if we get higher highs in this index. That would indicate better things ahead. Otherwise . . . pic.twitter.com/k5aLS64C8i

A pitchfork to watch because of the diversity of this index. pic.twitter.com/7nGJ2q50Xx

Money market funds zoomed upward in assets but bear funds never got in gear. Wonder why, raises other questions?? pic.twitter.com/5LMBAoxmXv

Smaller caps continue to outperform as they lead the bounce upward. pic.twitter.com/9nHQUQskUg

Volume spike on Wednesday. Climactic day is probable. Only question is how far does rally go? For now we won’t worry. pic.twitter.com/KaLFd9XsVG

Deepest longer term oversold in volume since 2012, same oversold in advancing issues since 2013 & 2012 pic.twitter.com/8jbzZZaHJd

@wekim77 Count got goofy at purple 2, cuz chart shows purple 3, which automatically generates green 3 & end of bull market. Don’t like count

Looks like we are getting the typical bounce around the +-500 level in the summation index. pic.twitter.com/MWYXN5CxIQ

Wave count using stochastics pic.twitter.com/2ZnE9SrVYY

The bounce above 20 day MA has been quick in the NASDAQ and NYSE. It has a way to go before reaching the “norm” pic.twitter.com/JgTCvYtkI0

Put call ratio has worked itself in buy territory and has been there a few days. pic.twitter.com/COMBHsuvf9

The downside count for the recent decline showing the SP 500 during trading hours only. pic.twitter.com/ol9REWWrsZ

Prior tweet count, the count after purple 2 could all be one correction. That looks good at the moment.

Long term count since 2009. Count gets odd at purple 3, which generates green 3 (bull market end). Possible, but??? pic.twitter.com/RYZl9ovwJg

Potential pitchfork trend lines on the SP500 futures. pic.twitter.com/tR4XAmrTZc

Prior tweet shows the possibility that another step up could take place, step 5. I’m not fond of that count, but it’s certainly possible.

Pitchfork gave support near the bottom. pic.twitter.com/0yFy6MpQW6

SPX consolidating at 200 day MA line. pic.twitter.com/beBc6w15Vf

Lotsa RV stuff to do next couple of days, so I’ll post later (after close likely). Lotsa stock stuff needs my attention, but market OK temp.

ADX red/green lines have turned, a buy zone had occurred. If lower price should occur, it’s probably not meaningful pic.twitter.com/BWWSy4Wbky

I’m BACK I had no cell signal for the last several days, no Verizon or ATT, had no idea what happened in the market. Nuthin’ to say yet.

A neutral reading on put calls from ISEE. I don’t like it. pic.twitter.com/ylBxHdvsU1

I have Sierra charts & a data feed. Lotsa nice charts, but too many & the obvious can elude me. I eliminated some charts to focus better

For any newbies out there, click on the chart to enlarge it so you can see the detail

Significant indexes have penetrated lower line of envelope indicating rally soon pic.twitter.com/SpS3TO8aPQ

Significant indexes have penetrated lower line of envelope indicating rally soon – one more envelope chart next tweet pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/tBPkIIglXz

Significant indexes have penetrated lower line of envelope indicating rally soon – more envelope charts next tweet pic.twitpic.twitpic.twitpic.twitter.com/iMwXEc1TDo

Small caps led this market down and should lead the market up. We’ll see.

Just saw Russell small cap (RUT) & it indicates decline may be finished for now. It has higher highs. pic.twitter.com/HRRTZqxPSp

1st higher high is 1893 (futures). Meaningful higher highs is at 1970 (futures) and should be a channel break pic.twitter.com/QJ91BvjQr8

Current step only shows 4 steps down. Channel break determines when step is finished though. Watching carefully pic.twitter.com/KiWhvpyHN2

I’m looking for higher highs which will indicate that a step is finished & a channel break has taken place. A higher high is way up there

A different downside measurement. 2nd chart is further downside projection on the same measurement settings pic.twitpic.twitter.com/ODH0eHKfmj

One downside measurement pic.twitter.com/2LqqCYewxC

Wonder if market is more worried about ebola than government. Think what ebola outbreak in USA & EU would do to trade. Restriction galore.

The 30 minute ADX peaked & began falling indicating a rally The daily ADX has not begun falling & no rally indicated pic.twitpic.twitter.com/kTHyMIOZWM

Intraday put call figures, CBOE and ISEE. They aren’t heavily tilted towards the puts, just leaning that way. pic.twitpic.twitter.com/T5SSrawd2N

I’ll be looking at todays put/call figures. They should be lopsided towards the puts. CBOE Futures Exchange Reports Busiest Week In History

One thing is for sure . . . It ain’t over until it’s over. I’ll work up some measurement charts for where we might go on the downside.

Prior tweet shows the possibility that there is more to go after this step is finished. Strap your helmet on tight & batten down the hatches

This chart shows that we are possibly in larger step 2 down. If true, 3rd step could be a waterfall or double bottom pic.twitter.com/54il3uMHmi

1st chart is JNK bonds, 2nd chart is TLT bonds Abandoning junk bonds & taking refuge in T-bonds during this fiasco pic.twitpic.twitter.com/ygspefm4gz

The 1st chart shows 2nd step down. Large cap charts are messed up for counting. See 2nd chart of SP500 pic.twitpic.twitter.com/TcU08VuYGF

The daily chart is probably the best place to look for the correct count. Likely we are in 3rd step down, BUT if “could” be in larger step 2

Often times I’ve seen Fibonacci lines crushed in waterfalls. I usually have to redraw steeper lines after normal looking lines are ruined

But this is a happier looking chart becuz it shows that we MIGHT have a downside target for the moment. (more) pic.twitter.com/9PFxCgMUlU

I remember that day in #1987 & the FACES of the floor traders! Many were wiped out & couldn’t believe it. I wasn’t even in on that day.

HISTORICALLY, in 1987 market fell over 20% in 1 day after several large daily declines prior to climax day. 1987 was a disaster for market.

Can you spell WATERFALL? And this might not be the worst part, logically we should rally after today, but logic doesn’t always win out.

Not quite as many bears as yesterday, but still heavy shorting by way of the puts. pic.twitter.com/vh5qQXBmA3

John, what did you think of the team’s execution (Tampa Bucs)? “I think it’s a good idea” – John McKay Gotta love that sense of humor

@PelicanPierre @spirocks And the Rams executed that game plan perfectly.

Risk management to me has always meant run like hell when you’re convinced the bull market has ended. Gotta arrive at that conclusion timely

@taxfreelt I don’t label like Elliott, but using that terminology, we “could” be ending 5 since March 2009. Too early to be definite

And now I’m going to go outside & play with the other kids. Maybe a game of kick the can – did you ever see that particular “Twilight Zone”

Look at the big rally in bonds. This is why junk bond sentiment has been declining since January. pic.twitpic.twitter.com/TbaEmhdMSP

Another junk bond etf with no sign of a bottom showing. pic.twitter.com/CQdAfMgX11

Junk bond decline since late June peak pic.twitter.com/m24lEEyN80

NASDAQ pitchfork beginning in 2009. Notice the common overthrow prior to the end pic.twitter.com/N3bzq2apoL

On prior tweet , a decline to the lower line would be a 20% decline. Lower line begins contact points at the March 2009 low.

Channel defining bull market since March 2009. It’s common to have an overthrow surge at final stage of bull market. pic.twitter.com/AlHpTYaZlh

Pitchfork on the SP500 since June 2012 defining step 3 of step 3 since March 2009. pic.twitter.com/QMruwQRptR

ADX extreme levels, red on red & green on green are rally points. Dissimilar color contacts signify a decline pic.twitter.com/1qJEnbxKfD

If market takes out recent bottoms by signifiant amount, we could have waterfall finish? Lotsa blood & panic on the street when that happens

If step 2 bottom is completed, these are possible rally stopping levels. pic.twitter.com/3BEep4Nkvh

Chart indicates another step down before the fun is over. If step 2 is finished a bigger rally than 1 will take place pic.twitter.com/ZGuvCZB21G

A couple of nice looking pitchforks. pic.twitter.com/tN0lkPrN0e

If it’s a 3 count decline, we could have several bottoms before a real rally takes off recovering 62% of the decline. pic.twitter.com/LGZ1A1BGYv

Fibonacci fan from peak of 9/19/14. This chart could be a 5 count decline with more to go. But let’s say it’s a 3 pic.twitter.com/0fKwvQklcN

Interesting, but crude cycle chart. If correct, the pain might not last too long before a large rally begins. pic.twitter.com/SCk0uXfQN1

Also keep in mind that I’m a rambling’ senile old man that can barely put a thought together in a coherent sentence. Just a stupid old fart

I gotta stop, cuz I’m starting to sound like perpetual bear Robert Prechter These charts are just theoretical possibilities not fact – yet!

Now let’s look at a chart from 1928 to present. I have to stop this or I’ll have a heart attack pic.twitter.com/bG0iR2t038

That was a pretty scary chart from 2009 to present! Now lets look at an even scarier chart!! I’ll never sleep again! pic.twitter.com/CRLIPCgJkN

Oct is Halloween month & let’s look at somethin’ scary. If count is correct on this chart, it’s means trouble ahead pic.twitter.com/07lJkmgzDc

I certainly like the idea of a rally occurring on the heels of Dow Theory sell signal from 10/13/14. In 2007 the rally was 62% of decline.

All the reasons that I used for a rally yesterday worked out for today’s rally. Accidents do happen and I can get things right occasionally

Lotsa bears out there. 54 calls bought for every 100 puts bought today. pic.twitter.com/He3l7u8c02

Waterfall declines can easily occur in this climate. If we have a big washout the chances of the decline being finished are good. BUT . . .

 is showing a ton this morning. If I see a bunch of shorting on this bounce, I’m going to turn very . – Mark Young

The uptrend for  50 is not broken yet. Big caps are late to the party. pic.twitter.com/ydy6oXZNoN

Sequoia fund is on or near a buy point. Sequoia is closed, I recommend it about 2 weeks before the fund closed pic.twitter.com/Fnh80pnRiI

Cook’s tick indicator says we have entered an area of a possible rally. This index can go deeper before rally occurs pic.twitter.com/YEbcW1ScJK

 are fearful enough to move more money into money market funds, but bear market funds are not in vogue yet. pic.twitter.com/lGpAeD4DGx

The  indicator has crossed into extreme territory. Buy signal isnt generated until the red & green lines reverse pic.twitter.com/W35vN7tZzT

The  has penetrated the lower edge of its envelope. This is the deepest penetration since Aug 2011. pic.twitter.com/lORnZYi6Dz

These longer term  are at the same level as Nov 2012. pic.twitter.com/BPD9RV9bSn

Summation index has hit minus 500 & that’s an area of a possible rally. Remember it’s an imprecise target for a rally pic.twitter.com/XL9fZcQeJq

More internal signs that the decline is slowing. pic.twitter.com/gB4Fg29UWO

Is that green I see on the chart for the last week? Maybe it’s showing a “possible” rally. Size of the rally??? pic.twitter.com/Rin43eCcoI

After 2007  sell, market rallied & regained 62% of the short term decline. If rallied similarly today, expect rally to 16,914 ???

 sell signal in Nov 2007. Chart is similar to present. Immediately after  sell signal market rallied. pic.twitter.com/16OFbxOIFu

 Sell Signal, but of what magnitude? Jeff Saut says 10-12% decline & no more, based on rising earnings (??) pic.twitter.com/9F5OsxUwXV

Raymond James’ research of 1025 stocks says that average stock was down 19% from its 52-week high with many stocks down a lot more than that

 1000  making contact on Aug 2011 bottom (significant bottom). Other times it just gets close to edge pic.twitter.com/yRBPuB5PuE

 1000  nearing a contact with envelope. This  doesn’t make contact except on a significant bottom pic.twitter.com/JkkiVsOCKx

Past    contacts with envelope. Contacts were 2011 & 2012. A contact doesn’t happen very often pic.twitter.com/v8SF0pIYK6

   in contact with lower envelope. pic.twitter.com/67kyQgBS2x

Past envelope contacts of   . Volatile penetrations of envelope “can” denote a final bottom. pic.twitter.com/W8iQhr4olQ

   touching the lower edge of envelope. pic.twitter.com/t7TPlobcWV

Past example of     touching lower edge of envelope. pic.twitter.com/TF9Q0JZx6D

Example of contact    with lower envelope. Contacts don’t denote final bottoms, just a bottom pic.twitter.com/qwxpzZ1wNl

 recent example of lower envelope contact. Notice that it doesn’t stay long below the lower edge before rallying pic.twitter.com/1lY18qwKTo

 stock index is on the lower edge of its envelope.  begin on or near the lower edges. See next tweet. pic.twitter.com/XPpOBCPBay

 on the  small caps () that looks valid at the moment. pic.twitter.com/o9khTYyE9y

NASDAQ  fan that is also working well since 9/19 pic.twitter.com/ADt5tXbr4M

 fan that is working well for the entire decline since 9/19/14 to date. pic.twitter.com/IhHHZvz6Z4

I wonder when they will panic and announce the next round of QE. – from Mike Burke

It was an explicit admission that, among QE objectives, were manipulation of the equity and forex markets. – from Mike Burke

The Fed governor replied that QE had been successful because the dollar was down & the stock market up. This statement was revealing because

Everyone on TV saying they are “buying this dip” but no one asks if they raised cash in advance. Can’t buy a dip unless you sold some.

Watch Mon & Tue for panic & reversal signs. The larger decline will spend much more time on downside, but market zig zags B4 the big bottom

Is a panic waterfall decline ahead for the market? Could a panic be like a 800 point day? Panics usually occur nearer the end than beginning

Nearing the 200 day moving average. Coincidentally at the same time the lower edge of the envelope is approached. pic.twitter.com/xctEEZRznr

Close up of envelope for SP500 pic.twitter.com/iRyFVNW1xO

Nearing lower edge of envelope for SP500. Historically a penetration of lower envelope generates a rally. pic.twitter.com/EKPXbfnQTJ

Head & shoulders formation broken in German Dax index. pic.twitter.com/l0gWLLhVmM

Head & shoulders formation broken in Russell small cap index. Maybe a move lower & return to neckline in a rally. pic.twitter.com/DYx30Mczdn

@Stock_Trend_Chg Oil target may be as low as $50 based on wider interpretation of converging symmetrical triangle. Takes time to accomplish

No news on Fri except import prices & 4 FED speakers. Futures are down and almost making a new low. Pivotal moment here, go lower or rally?

Check out PAGE 5 CHART 4 – – ENERGY – – ADV DEC + UP DN VOL + HIGH – LOW + BULLISH % At link stockcharts.com/public/1169350… So ugly may bounce

Oil broke to the downside with an eventual target of $65. Sounds great as long as deflation isn’t part of this chart. pic.twitter.com/Kj1Fc2M2zI

$ are moving into money market funds but little interest in bear funds. These will be at peaks near the price bottom pic.twitter.com/arzraag8DT

Junk bonds are canary in the coal mine with the economy. Economy is great & getting better??? Other than QE ending, anything else in play???

Junk sentiment turned down in Jan & TLT (T-bonds) have outperformed junk bonds since then pic.twitter.com/rXqDCAc1aW

The Yen is telling the Nikkei where to go. The Yen is inverted in this chart to match market direction. pic.twitter.com/ARwWoXKZP4

Volatility is still leading prices to the downside. After we get a rally we’ll see what volatility will tell us. pic.twitter.com/yXf71KH0jV

Perhaps this is the best picture of the wave count. We’ll see later if it’s true. pic.twitter.com/UxYjNFRaCu

Tiny penetration of Russell small cap (RUT) head & shoulders. Need larger break down to be sure. pic.twitter.com/qVkZk68XYW

IGNORE EARLIER TWEET ON WAVE COUNT. I POSTED THAT BEFORE LOOKING AT ALL MY CHARTS. Senile old farts are allowed to make mistakes! Right?

Over 90% declining issues, but declining volume was about 81%. Not a 90% day but bad enough to “possibly” warrant a day or so of rally

And ditto on this chart PAGE 1 CHART 9 – – STOCKS ABOVE 20 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

While this chart is showing resistance PAGE 1 CHART 8 – – PERCENTAGE ABOVE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE On following linkstockcharts.com/public/1169350

Check out this chart PAGE 1 CHART 7 – – PERCENTAGE ABOVE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE On the following link stockcharts.com/public/1169350

Dow Theory chart. The early August low is what we are watching closely. pic.twitter.com/Si5JSsZuFA

Dow Theory has more to do before a signal of consequence takes place. The Transports are near Aug lows, but Industrials have further to go

NYSE high low are taking a breather for the moment, no follow through today on the lows. pic.twitter.com/IvyaWu5jJw

Advance decline line is still leading prices downward. A/D line is below early Aug A/D bottom pic.twitter.com/pQRuMeJTHi

Yesterday was the best day of the year & today was the worst day of the year. Déjà vu all over again cuz this happened in last bad market

The decline in SP 500 futures since Oct 6th to today. Can you see the wave count mentioned in the prior tweet? pic.twitter.com/RQzkDfyyO0

This small part of the overall decline began on Oct 6. A nice channel break after 3 steps down (one of the steps sub divided into another 3)

We’ll see if Mr Market wants to do damage quickly or slow & deliberate. Both usually have a waterfall ending, which can be fun for shorts

Microcap & small caps made new lows today, but large caps fell short of new lows. If Lg caps make significant new lows expect lotsa damage

Looks like 4 steps down completed and we’re probably declining presently into 5th step down for today’s decline. pic.twitter.com/Rjl7tFhMZ1

A “possible” cyclic low is forecast for the first quarter of 2015. I’ll run Hurst Cycle software to see what major bottoms it’s predicting

BUT, market “could” muddle around a series of insignificant lower lows. I wouldn’t expect that to be take place. (More)

If market takes out recent lows, it means another leg down is underway & it would be step 2 of 3 steps. If true, more damage is “possible”.

SOME indexes made moderate channel breaks of the recent decline, but MOST didn’t have a channel trend break. (Continued)

Looks like 3 small steps down this morning. Should have a rally from here. That’s not assured until channel break. pic.twitter.com/pKokTviRwe

Go Chargers! 31 – 0 winners today against the Jets Chargers finally have great coaching, a great general manager & it’s beginning to show

@wekim77 If a complex formation ends the market decline that began in 2013, it will take lots of time to develop. Patience advised long term

@wekim77 Yes on end step 1, but smaller cap indexes show 3 stabs downward for a WEIRD finish?? OR there’s more to go for a complex finish

@Stock_Trend_Chg An uncompleted head and shoulders turns into a consolidation pattern, instead of a negative breakdown in prices.

Russell small cap (RUT) came close to completing its head & shoulder top. Projected low would be June 2013 bottom pic.twitter.com/0gpjXSGdhf

If the larger steps down are valid, we could have another decline before we attempt new highs. That decline would not begin for awhile.

Some of the indexes look like we have only completed 2 larger steps down. Larger step 1 down began in March 2014

Beginning on Sept 19th, the decline appears to be over. A subdivision into steps 4 & 5 could mess up this forecast. No sign of 4 & 5 yet.

Looks like one continuous step down in the broker dealer index. Similar look in bank index pic.twitter.com/4sbBOBLnP0

3 nice steps down in the semiconductor index pic.twitter.com/eUW8bF1T8Q

3 well defined steps down for SP 500 & DJIA, expect more rally to come pic.twitter.com/Y86IZUHoPK

Another nice pitchfork for Russell small cap index ($RUT) pic.twitter.com/IgYGfxL03m

Really well defined pitchfork in automobiles pic.twitter.com/op3IlirNyk

Mike Burke says: Seasonality turns positive next week May see another low early next week, but, if lows decline a bottom will be in place

This is an interesting relationship, palladium divided by gold. Why it works takes a little research. Think about it pic.twitter.com/8IYtvG74Mc

Yen started rising and Tokyo Nikkei fell out of bed, 2.6% yesterday and .5% tonight.

Since June 2013′ London has formed a pattern of higher lows. Today it broke below an important low. Significant!!! pic.twitter.com/620sviRV7s

I show all of these charts of small & mid-cap indexes that have weak prices & weak internals. While the large cap indexes refuse to follow.

Investors aren’t rushing into bear funds or money market funds. Both of these rise during a decline, but not yet. pic.twitter.com/KJ6fXxFGQO

SP 500 is touching its 100 day moving average. This MA has contained all declines since late 2012. pic.twitter.com/lntu7b9Ije

McClellan summation index & it’s oscillator. Surprisingly oscillator is not at an extreme level like the end of July pic.twitter.com/s2Mz5WHQp4

Up down volume for small caps looks precipitous pic.twitter.com/h2hbE9W9fH

Emerging markets are getting killed. pic.twitter.com/K7G33sYccw

Percentage of stocks below the 200 day moving average is getting low. This chart is the small and mid-cap indexes pic.twitter.com/VZu80tGzKy

Showing larger wave count to downside. Haven’t gotten to the other charts yet, may be more goodies later. pic.twitter.com/cJOrpGyAi5

ISEE call put ratio was 48. For 100 puts bought, 48 calls were bought. Year’s low was on 8/1 & the ratio was 43. Bearish attitudes are high

Market is oversold and staying oversold. That is the direct opposite of what had happened on the way up, overbought and stayed overbought.

Still in larger step 2 down. This chart gave a warning yesterday of more problems ahead. pic.twitter.com/Hex29riZWA

Sep 2014 – 278 TWEETS

That’s all my charts and comments for now. youtube.com/watch?v=gBzJGc…

Long term declining  for Tokyo. pic.twitter.com/7O4IBKMcew

Chart of London  since 1998 with an upward wedge beginning in 2008 to the present. pic.twitter.com/zzUbhSdCaH

Value Line index since 1980 showing triple top, current pitchfork, and descending line for bottoms. pic.twitter.com/dRYRu8YD1U

Long term chart of  since 1980 with the wave count from 1982 to 2000. Large steps green III, IV & V are labeled pic.twitter.com/vzuEMPyzRH

Either a long consolidation pattern, or the epitome of a sawtooth top. pic.twitter.com/VpMr117Khk

 () has a possible  formation with the neckline a little below present prices. pic.twitter.com/8MYrlyjbJp

 on bottom line of pitchfork. Breaking of this line “could” denote end of step 3 since Oct 2011 ??? pic.twitter.com/ngymzayzgw

Internals on utilities sector is not as weak as prices indicate. Strength ahead for utilities??? pic.twitter.com/dRB1eY3qcF

Internals on materials sector is much weaker than the price indicates. More weakness to come in materials??? pic.twitter.com/C2TKE7DEYS

But some investors are moving into money market funds showing a little fear. pic.twitter.com/6pJqdTOCM6

Chart shows what investors are doing with their money. They are still  and refuse to move to  funds pic.twitter.com/XGaS6Gatme

GE is still leading the way down amongst the blue chips. pic.twitter.com/618pNTVZxB

Small caps are still leading the way down. I would expect this trend to reverse when we have a good bottom. pic.twitter.com/kwMV1qiWQh

New low without a new low in prices. Negative Divergence. pic.twitter.com/mFMaDYGwSb

 keep going below 200 day MA while having a tepid  is percentages of stocks below MA in an index pic.twitter.com/Gv1N3EBJXH

High low difference got better today instead of following advance decline line down. My Charts stockcharts.com/public/1169350pic.twitter.com/2PLltWr7Nc

New lows in adv dec line today without price low in large caps. A negative divergence between adv dec line & prices pic.twitter.com/pVckTtddpG

“Futures on U.S. and Asian stock indexes fell after a slump in oil prices and the worst quarterly drop for global equities since 2012”

It is important to remember that all market cycles have two halves. streettalklive.com/index.php/blog… pic.twitter.com/kYptY0ftcn

We’re now exactly 1 month away from the Oct Fed meeting & end of QE3. Most saying it’s diff this time (from QE1/2)… pic.twitter.com/ckYbgWVFDs

My favorite reach for yield indicator under more pressure after Gross announcement, still much more to go IMO. $PHK pic.twitter.com/JUaXliJwG6

Absolutely stunning reversal in Brazil this month. 20% peak to trough decline. $EWZ pic.twitter.com/ojytf2ZDaf

perspective matters pic.twitter.com/hFKB00TSrl

We had a lower low in small & mid-cap indexes today. Could be showing we haven’t finished current & larger step down pic.twitter.com/VDOO89V56L

Be Aware and Be Cautious – until you know otherwise.

But if we break the decline’s lows, you’ll know step 3 down is underway (scenario 2). It could be a waterfall event. pic.twitter.com/eFvRseeVIe

We haven’t made new low since 9/25 (Thu). The rallies have been muted, but until step 3 up is finished, we are in rally mode. (continued)

2 scenarios likely. 1. We rally up to old highs 2. We have completed ONLY 2 steps down and will decline into 3rd step (continued)

Hmmmmm, I have this decline counted as 3 steps down (double bottom 3rd). No new lows since 9/25 (Thu). (continued) pic.twitter.com/veV5YGko8H

 always repeats, only the details change –  Many Edson Gould’s   articles are on my blog

NOT A GOOD TIME, BUT I MAY BE BUSY WITH OTHER THINGS FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS I’ll try to tweet important stuff after each day’s market close

“it is worth mentioning that a stronger dollar is an effective tightening of monetary policy.” – Jeff Saut

Headline: “U.S. Stocks Drop Amid Hong Kong Protests”. Why would the  decline because of Hong Kong. Bad reasoning for headline.

Look at difference between the wave count on SP500 futures (here) versus SP500 chart (actual index) in prior tweet. pic.twitter.com/rLwoPMP1oY

SP500 chart shows 4 steps down. The 4th step could be a double bottom. Failure on upside means 5th step coming. pic.twitter.com/20Y3dNP2Hd

“Might” be the end of step 3 down since 9/19. Higher highs needed for confirmation of step 3 ending. 5 down or worse? pic.twitter.com/53OpV0HetX

Since 9/19, large caps have 3 steps down & the small caps are missing a step. That means maybe one more step down of differing consequences

The history of the crash of 1929. The years leading up to 1929 and the stock market’s influence on the country youtube.com/watch?v=_YgzVt…

FED paper called “A Brief History of the 1987 Stock Market Crash with a Discussion of the Federal Reserve Response” wp.me/a1DRwF-32f

The two video clips posted of stock market crashes has NOTHING to do with the present I posted them because I like stock market history

Crash of 1987, news clips throughout the trading day of the largest percentage drop in the stock market since 1914. youtube.com/watch?v=UO-mD9…

Charts & audio from the pits for the Flash Crash of May 6 2010 Fun to listen to the emotional breakdown of narrator youtube.com/watch?v=njwf1F…

During QE3: US National Debt: $16 to $17.7 trill. Fed Balance Sheet: $2.8 to $4.5 trill. Both up $1.7 trill. pic.twitter.com/5bgwDnUpXm

Senator Elizabeth Warren called for congressional hearings into allegations that the FED has been too deferential to the firms it regulates.

9/27/14 – Mike Burke Seasonally there is often a bottom after the 1st week of October.

9/27/14 – Mike Burke New lows are all that matters When a bottom has been reached, new lows will diminish quickly No sign of that now.

9/27/14 – Mike Burke For the past 40 years average returns for the coming week have been negative by all measures.

Short sellers have a 12 million share position in Alibaba, a week after the company priced the world’s biggest-ever initial public offering.

Put in $25, Get $10,000 Back. Your Bank Becomes a Casino US banks of all sizes could start tempting savers with savings promotion raffles

Goldman Sachs is changing a policy addressing conflicts of interest to bar investment bankers from trading individual stocks and bonds.

Trend channel break will indicate that step 3 in larger step 3 (began in Oct 2011) is finished. Significant correction will then take place.

An alternate wave count for larger step 3. If true, this count indicates a return to old highs would take place. ???? pic.twitter.com/QQoetTSUmH

A long term wave count since 2009. The only question is whether larger step 3 is finished. pic.twitter.com/HfWTTlcN2F

Fibonacci lines in effect presently for the SP500 and a wave count pic.twitter.com/rMzkgfOkt2

Russell micro cap decline since July 1. Apparently finished step 2 down, it’s not conclusive with a trend break yet pic.twitter.com/uxUqslEtq9

That should conclude the decline that begin on Sept 19. Rally now to new highs? That’s the big question??? More later pic.twitter.com/fVQRi1vFik

Collusion between the FED & Wall St in “The Secret Goldman Sachs Tapes” Article bloombergview.com/articles/2014-… Audiothisamericanlife.org/radio-archives…

Majority opinion pic.twitter.com/qWkMLypCAA

.@TheCreditBubble has requested this cartoon from the Summer of 1987 pic.twitter.com/OhrdZVcXuq

No fear without a rise in assets of the bear funds or a rise in assets in money market funds. Both rise in bad times. pic.twitter.com/iVp0AMTD3B

The wave count since July Read about my wave count method at stock-market-observations.com/2011/07/02/odd… pic.twitter.com/zvp10ezq0w

If this cycle stays in gear, we should rally soon. The predicted low date is tomorrow, but it’s not unusual 2 B early pic.twitter.com/4iz4ZfXdPl

90% of total volume was declining today Declining stocks were 83% of the total traded Should bounce after an extreme day, if not, watch out

Sometimes it’s all about perspective pic.twitter.com/BK5TNHcRSd

How to make the stock market go up pic.twitter.com/Uljr5aCuNG

How to make the stock market go up pic.twitter.com/35YfsoF1Cf

Wall Street research materials pic.twitter.com/7cuARdKa2i

Mark Twain and his stock market advice of when to buy pic.twitter.com/UoTE5JZiTR

Which light is lit right now??? pic.twitter.com/L5PTG1wBMo

Is he on now??? pic.twitter.com/xfDgJWGjd5

How Wall Street operates pic.twitter.com/EHX76oT4Wi

The short term wave count & did we finish step 2? It’s possible. Notice the Fibonacci lines are providing resistance pic.twitter.com/LQpZBz5T7W

Jeff Saut has support at 1965 – 1970 for the SP 500. We bounced off that level today.

Was the decline ending in Aug step 1 down? Smaller caps show it was step 1 down. We started step 2 down Fri 9/19/14 pic.twitter.com/sgMwMUZFaM

The first step was Fri to Tue & we are in second step down of 3 steps. My method of wave counting can be read here: stock-market-observations.com/2011/07/02/odd…

Surprise, I woke up & saw the market had crashed, I hadn’t been stopped out, but was making money again. Lucky trade on a chancy wave count

Yesterday I counted a poor looking 5 steps up, so I went short again after the close with a stop above the high. My expectations were low.

60 minute envelope in a bottom area early this morn. Rallies usually take place when the index hits bottom envelope pic.twitter.com/8iJOthzhgi

SP 500 futures have recovered 38% of the decline, while the NASDAQ futures have recovered 61% of the decline. Lotsa strength in the NASDAQ.

Triangle formation in oil has been forming since 2011. Downside projection could be $65. That smacks of deflation pic.twitter.com/dg3aLTmEFo

The wave count since last Friday pic.twitter.com/uVRmB4yZQn

Looking at the percentages, small caps are doing better than the larger caps pic.twitter.com/wxW5e67jZF

We’re obviously breaking the downtrend that began last Friday. If we don’t make new highs, this decline becomes step 1 down (of 3 or 5).

@focus1234567 Show off

@focus1234567 Yeah I’m going to bed now & reading my Kindle until I fall asleep. I have a wrist lanyard to keep it from falling on the floor

@focus1234567 I’ve been tending in that direction for a couple of years. Jeff Saut says this bull market has years to run.

@focus1234567 makes a man healthy wealthy and wise. You’re getting up and I haven’t gone to bed yet.

@focus1234567 You ever sleep? Don’t say 2008, it scared the crap out of me the 1st time. But someday large 3rd step down will take place!

50 day moving average of the SP 500 is only about 5 points lower. Doesn’t mean much though.

$65 oil in a couple of years??? I’ll post the chart tomorrow that shows the possibility.

Shorter & longer term oscillators oversold. Only if in a serious decline would I expect the oscillators to go lower, otherwise rally soon.

ES futures look like 4 (of 5) steps, but a trend break is the deciding factor whether the complete step is finished pic.twitter.com/PA6u6wMWOf

Large caps have no steps down & if an intermediate term decline has begun, 3 steps down are coming. This matches the prior chart’s count.

The count in this chart shows 3 more steps down. 3 more steps down puts large caps in gear with this chart. (cont.) pic.twitter.com/kGXEU9OraQ

One of these days, the uptrend is going to end and stocks will slice right through oversold readings. Until then, the trend is your friend.

@focus1234567 I’m watching a small time frame decline (Fri to Tue), which could morph into a larger decline. If true, this is step 1 down.

NASDAQ has rallied off of their lows, while DJIA and SP 500 are on their lows of the day.

Market is breaking down and sub stepping into more steps down. I’ll update the count later in the day.

The indicator in the lower window indicates a rally should be expected. pic.twitter.com/5MWhz3I5GE

The NASDAQ Composite is one of the stronger indexes after hitting its 3 count. pic.twitter.com/Yc7yNHAcfd

The DJ Ind may have just finished their 3 count. We’ll see. pic.twitter.com/HNBOdZWkEw

The 3 count as I see it presently in the SP futures. These are 12 minute bars. pic.twitter.com/FASrwh9hAX

Market weakening and we may be sub stepping into 5 steps down instead of 3. Won’t know for sure until we make a lower low.

We don’t have an end to the recent decline until we break the trend line for this decline. This hasn’t taken place yet.

I count 3 steps down in the futures. If “true”, a rally should take place. If we are in a larger decline, this marks the end of step 1 down.

Lots of trend lines on pages 6 and 7 stockcharts.com/public/1169350

First 2.5 pages of my charts have the best indicators. Lesser indicators follow, not bad or unreliable, just lesser. stockcharts.com/public/1169350

Read about the Elder Impulse System, which is used on my index charts.stock-market-observations.com/2012/01/30/eld…

Page 6 of my charts are daily & 2 hour. Page 7 is monthly & weekly charts. All are displayed in Elder Impulse System stockcharts.com/public/1169350

My charts are shorter & if you’re only interested in indicators, see the first 5 pages. For charts, see pages 6 & 7. stockcharts.com/public/1169350

Gann said that markets tend to top on or around Sep 22nd more often than any other day. This is also the date of the Autumnal Equinox

SP 500 trend line since Mar 2009 bottom. This is not a log chart. pic.twitter.com/Z1z3FPUGvR

Jeff Saut says “I think Dow Theory “trumps” everything because it tells us the primary direction of the equity markets,”

@spirocks If you have a multiple personality disorder, you can lie to both of us

@Stock_Trend_Chg Decent record getting MAJOR inflection points correct

All of the charts displayed today can be seen at My Charts linkstockcharts.com/public/1169350 I have also reduced the number of charts

Trend lines and cycles for Value Line Index since 1980 pic.twitter.com/JX9BIlN4VO

SP 500 trend lines, cycles and wave counts since 1980. pic.twitter.com/7QTgJVMht2

Possible trend lines for Russell micro cap index pic.twitter.com/cARWjtqiT9

Short term Pitchfork for bank index pic.twitter.com/LYvbIxqvBB

Russell top 50 trend lines Index is the 50 largest cap stocks pic.twitter.com/dKPk7MpmKA

Russell 1000 trend lines Index is the largest 1000 stocks pic.twitter.com/VJrVySpcII

Russell mid cap trend lines pic.twitter.com/XXuUPtohNe

Russell micro cap Pitchfork trend lines to the downside pic.twitter.com/KRxCqO7ZIS

Semiconductor index Pitchfork trend lines pic.twitter.com/hSdHoNMJIp

The weekly unemployment claims continues to strengthen. The job claims is inverted from its normal downward trend. pic.twitter.com/WTtczpm7CH

Is GE leading the market lower??? pic.twitter.com/kK4FMiuct7

Smaller caps went from leaders in July to extreme laggards. Smaller caps are ready to go negative for last 4 months pic.twitter.com/2wdtWR7cc0

Russell index weakness is spreading from the micro caps to the larger caps pic.twitter.com/UGiKM2HfUe

Emerging market stocks are warning of impending weakness pic.twitter.com/GzjMsfOAOZ

Volatility warnings of an impending market decline. The most recent warning was last week. pic.twitter.com/Te1Td0yuV5

This chart says we are in 2nd step down. See this link for an explanation of my wave counts stock-market-observations.com/2011/07/02/odd…pic.twitter.com/nX5yNbZLjw

Percentage of today’s declining volume and declining stocks was about 85% each. 90% represents an extreme figure.

Longer term overbought oversold oscillators are nearing an oversold reading. pic.twitter.com/couNsIDF98

Lotsa weakness in the NYSE stocks above their 20 day MA. The decline just began, but this is closer to recent bottoms pic.twitter.com/AdROQipslE

Finally weakness is showing in the SP 500 average price relative to its 52 week high low pic.twitter.com/oZoRY0nWH9

Also weakness in the SP 500 for stocks above their 50 day MA. pic.twitter.com/EPev2bcFkI

On the recent peak, the SP 500 was showing signs of weakening for stocks above their 200 day MA pic.twitter.com/NXDkkG9G1G

Stocks above 200 day MA on NASDAQ are growing weaker. Ditto for ALL small cap indexes showing 200 day MA weakness pic.twitter.com/cHFl082AXm

The put call ratio isn’t in sell territory. Is it infallible, no, but it has a decent record of getting calls right. pic.twitter.com/zi4SxLXkv9

NASDAQ high low ratio has been in a correction mode for the last 2.5 weeks also. pic.twitter.com/TyUfL17awA

NYSE high low ratio has been in a correction mode for the last 2.5 weeks. pic.twitter.com/veJ5DHZaip

Cumulative advance decline is now leading the market lower. pic.twitter.com/Vom5uM9fTB

Was last week’s breakout a bull trap?? We’ll find out if we break significant lows. If not a trap, we’ll see more upside before a reversal.

Alibaba’s PE ratio is 60 (at $90). Google PE is 31, Amazon PE is 504, Netflix PE is 165. Is Alibaba in the same class as these stocks???

Alibaba IPO price was $68, reached $97 opening day & now trades at $90. Julian Robertson loves Alibaba. Remember when Google IPO was $85????

Breaking the trend since Oct 2011 is the big Kahuna, after that, a significant market correction can take place. When does that happen???

@taxfreelt Hard to tell, large caps are stubborn, small caps are already in decline. When we break trend since Oct 2011 the rout will be on

Not a good day today. The DJIA is down about half of the decline in the SPX. Smaller the cap, the bigger the decline pic.twitter.com/NkIGoZKABO

Do my charts mean the market is going to decline immediately? No, but . . . And markets usually go much higher than thought possible

Is Emerging Market Currency leading the stock market to the downside??? pic.twitter.com/oai0wmzQ3V

Is GE leading the market lower??? pic.twitter.com/V1u7fZgSI7

Weekly unemployment claims (inverse chart) are moving lower as economy strengthens. QE ends soon & what happens then? pic.twitter.com/YISi3hNYk3

Japanese Yen and the US bond market are almost in lock step. pic.twitter.com/C51vyqm1x5

McClellan Summation Index has been falling while large cap indexes are making new highs. pic.twitter.com/jDlNc9IsM9

New highs in the large cap indexes, but stocks above their 20 day MA were falling instead of confirming indexes pic.twitter.com/BfLvWTDzdb

Bearish divergent action between cumulative advance decline & large cap indexes, AD line failed to confirm new highs pic.twitter.com/EPMaMjqAFi

Breadth indicators very negative, seasonality for the next 2 weeks is negative. Conditions are in place for a cycle top. – From Mike Burke

Hindenburg Omen occurred on Thu & Fri. Signal not been valid in recent years, but conditions are similar to previous significant declines

The SKEW index has been in an uptrend since late 2013. As the index goes up, the odds of a correction go up too. pic.twitter.com/dy2gfS5UQc

Since Nov 2012 SP 500 has had corrections of -8%, -6%, -4% and -4.5%

My Charts can be seen at: stockcharts.com/public/1169350

My Charts are showing that small & midcap stocks are performing poorly Seasonality suggests that they may outperform in Nov & Dec???

Greed and Fear of Markets The excitement over the Alibaba IPO is in direct, opposite proportion to the fear after Lehman’s failure

Russell 1000 (top 1000 stocks) New intraday high with a loss and an outside day – both potential reversal formations pic.twitter.com/zYi0r4Lv92

Today I’m seeing an outside day on many stock market indexes. Some indexes had new intraday highs signifying – reversal day. Double Whammy!!

NO wins in Scotland and that’s carrying over to Wall Street tonight.

Patience is good in the stock market, but some never learn to wait for the right moment. pic.twitter.com/TIM0mlyqbe

In 2008 stocks were a good buy . . . Goodbye Mercedes, goodbye yacht, goodbye vacation home, goodbye . . . Ed Hart (modified for today)

Market Correction – The day after you buy stocks. – Anonymous

Money talks, but all mine ever says is “goodbye” – Anonymous

Those who can . . . do Those who can’t . . . teach Those who can’t teach . . . work for the government. – Anonymous

P/E ratio – The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing. – Anonymous

Often times WHEN you take a position can be more important than WHAT you take a position in. – Anonymous

The public is right during the trends but wrong at both ends. – Humphrey Neill

Nobody is more bearish than a sold-out bull. – Anonymous

A buy and hold strategy is a short term trade that went wrong. – Anonymous

A bubble is a bull market in which you don’t have a position. – Anonymous

The hardest part of a bull market is staying on. – Anonymous

This is expiration week for Thursday & Friday. We don’t get the crazy volatility like in the old days, but some volatility is expected.

Market is oversold & should rally more, but SP500 is finding it difficult to rally at the moment. pic.twitter.com/en0doAFVWX

4 day Fibonacci fan is working very nicely showing resistance and support on the SP 500 futures pic.twitter.com/GXYfJDv09Z

Close up view of the John Murphy chart immediately below. pic.twitter.com/NL1siwkqtK

John Murphy Favorite for long term signal Above the zero line is a bull market, below the zero line is a bear market pic.twitter.com/GL3NN0PZWT

Stochastic buy/sell signals for the Russell 2000, ETF is IWM pic.twitter.com/TRYgep49pp

Total market cumulative advance minus declines versus the SP 500. Negative divergence taking place presently pic.twitter.com/44yxufeNMC

Putt / Call Ratio showing moving average extremes for a buy or sell point. pic.twitter.com/4BTnl5nzb8

All of the preceding charts seen here are available at the following link:stockcharts.com/public/1169350

Stocks making a 52 week high in S&P 1500 are in a bearish divergence with index prices, slow topping indication pic.twitter.com/cUife90OTT

Stocks making a 52 week high in S&P small cap index are in a bearish divergence with prices, slow topping indication pic.twitter.com/4jbaL1kcjC

Another chart showing loss of upward momentum in the number of stocks above their 200 day MA in the SP 600 index pic.twitter.com/vbGCVWOJB8

Showing loss of upward momentum in the number of stocks above their 200 day MA on the NASDAQ, slow topping indication pic.twitter.com/RSCXZpBtcJ

Follow my blog – Find some different ideas, papers written by Edson Gould, Terry Laundry, unique wave count theory stock-market-observations.com

Paul Desmond wrote an article on market bottoms, which won the Market Technicians (MTA) Dow Award in 2001. mta.org/eweb/docs/2002…

Paul Desmond’s of Lowry Research lowryresearch.com wrote an article on market tops. stock-market-observations.com/2014/05/27/527…

If interested, you can read about the Elder Impulse System at the following link stock-market-observations.com/2012/01/30/eld…

Usually, the first warning sign that a Bull market is losing upward momentum occurs when the % of stocks rising to a 52-Week High contracts.

Tell your friends, neighbors, relatives, enemies, psychos and the homeless to become a FOLLOWER OF MY TWEETS.

Dow Theory Buy Signal – this is 2 days in a row for a buy signal. It’s not yet a significant new high for the industrials

Dow Theory Buy signal will occur today if the industrials & transports close somewhere near present price levels. It seems to be sure thing

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible. – Bernard Baruch

If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. – Bernard Baruch

I made money by selling too soon. – Bernard Baruch

Men, it has been said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, & one by one.

Emotions are your worst enemy in the stock market. – Don Hays

Stock are bought on expectations, not facts. – Gerald Loeb

If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks. – John (Jack) Bogle

The chart possibly shows 3 steps up. What appears to be 2 close steps is likely 1 step. Step 3 may still be ahead??? pic.twitter.com/JX7NHXEU9l

Yup, that’s me staying at the cardboard box suites behind the Four Seasons pic.twitter.com/gLbhKlDLos

“This time it’s different” was prevalent during the bubble of 2000. In 1929 it was called “New Economics”. – Bob

The four most dangerous words in investing are “This time it’s different”. – John Templeton

The rally today was due after completion of a 3 step decline. Rally may see new highs, but significant new highs??? pic.twitter.com/qm2mzhmapN

Today was unusual prior to a FED announcement. Normal is a flat market. If tomorrow morn. is STRONG to upside, expect more of same after FED

Today was a good bounce for large cap stocks. Smaller caps had half of the large cap gains. See – PAGE 5 CHART 7 stockcharts.com/public/1169350…

Dow Jones Industrials and a Fibonacci fan since the 2000 peak pic.twitter.com/tn7uDDEymG

Dow Jone Industrials since Oct 1928 and the overall wave count since 1929. pic.twitter.com/vdKcCzXTKf

Dow Jones Industrials since 1966 and the wave counts during that period. pic.twitter.com/OOlquAPSJ7

HIO junk bonds has been in a downtrend since Jan 2013 pic.twitter.com/8lzp5MmwcT

Junk bonds (JNK) since 2009 bottom, converging triangle since 2011. pic.twitter.com/pNHnUK9VYU

Trend lines, wave counts, Fibonacci lines for Russell 2000 since late 2009 pic.twitter.com/WEuB7zdiOb

Trend line channel since June 2012 in the SP 500 pic.twitter.com/LHxnfeunkt

Trend line channel since 2009 bottom pic.twitter.com/5uIyxzrpkb

Gold ETF & we’re looking for a “possible” break of the current trend channel, beware subdivisions extending the trend pic.twitter.com/kwk9iy5wkk

The count since Aug 8. FED announcements can make counts difficult to follow by wild swings in both directions. pic.twitter.com/9ap9f3rUQI

The Russell micro cap index has a downside trend line still intact. pic.twitter.com/KSeAqfTmlo

A “possible” new trend line? Will the top line hold over next few hours. FED announcement may shred this trend line pic.twitter.com/LslqjW0Lev

SHORT TERM CYCLE Recent cycle lows have occurred 1 day earlier than designated. Yesterday’s cycle low was 1 day early pic.twitter.com/byoQrssNcO

Same cycle as below in present. Cyclic lows have been shallow since 2009. Next cyclic low anticipated around May 2015 pic.twitter.com/tOFBx9gaCo

HISTORY: Crude intermediate term cycle of market action before 2007 peak & after the 2009 bottom. RELATIVELY accurate pic.twitter.com/vittPW3W0u

Rule#1: Never lose money. Rule #2: Never forget rule #1 – Warren Buffett

Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets. – Old French Proverb

The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell. – John Templeton

The market prior to FED announcements consist of (1) FLAT TREND (2) Decisive & CONTINUING moves usually carry through after the announcement

The declining channel that existed since Sept 3rd has been broken on the upside. Fireworks begin for real at 2pm Wed. pic.twitter.com/cITxRHLsea

Cell phone only lanes in China Ever wonder if USA is falling behind technologically & isn’t innovative anymore?? LMAO pic.twitter.com/Mf0cOxbSPm

“The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.” – Benjamin Graham

Not good odds for this month. When the SP 500 was up more than 3% in August and at 12-month high, September was up only 8% of the time.

I know old traders, and I know bold traders, but I know no old and bold traders! – Anonymous as retold by Jeff Saut

Minor breakdown on these trend lines today pic.twitter.com/ReA76BcXTS

Very short term count for the SP 500 Several possible trend lines for the current decline (blue and green lines) pic.twitter.com/6WOV9Xn33N

Stocks fell as investors speculated FED may raise interest rates sooner than estimated cuz retail sales climbed at fastest pace in 4 months

The NASDAQ is not really in a down trend. This is a horizontal formation presently. pic.twitter.com/2fU4nUseNA

An early trend line possibility, we’ll see if it holds up for awhile. pic.twitter.com/FmE1pp5Nc5

Credit above tweet to John Murphy at StockCharts

Stocks favorable with strong $ $ – green area SPX / World Index – black line 1999 decline was from asian money crisis pic.twitter.com/BnFbZwkIei

Credit the above tweet to John Murphy

DOLLAR APPEARS TO BE FORMING MAJOR BOTTOM RISING DOLLAR IS BEARISH FOR COMMODITIES STRONGER DOLLAR FAVORS U.S. STOCKS pic.twitter.com/IQLaORwU1z

A long trend channel for the SP 500 pic.twitter.com/L8FpMXcIIT

Is gold extending down into a 5 count, or making a double bottom? 5 count reinforces deflationary scenario in Europe pic.twitter.com/GaaU1ttObb

Russell micro cap index stopping a decline at the lower pitchfork level pic.twitter.com/ASzWWmtagw

SP 500 over the last month with a 5 count and a correction pic.twitter.com/GcopgmQOI2

NYSE index over the last month But many other indexes have gone to new highs well above the prior high. pic.twitter.com/4YoScLQvcg

Junk bonds (JNK) over the last month pic.twitter.com/PuuowOTTFN

Banks over the last month pic.twitter.com/NVwW8hrKQj

DJ Industrials over the last month pic.twitter.com/ygElDF8xou

Jeff Saut remains cautious & we’re in a secular bull market. His “but” is we could have a correction. He mentions things that bother me too

Shallow trend line in the micro cap Russell index pic.twitter.com/ysVDTwAeNb

Worst case scenario is that the megaphone could be ending soon. No clue which long term scenario is in place.

OIL BREAKS TO NEW LOWS AND TAKES GASOLINE WITH IT. More higher dollar repercussions.

“75% of American Adults are concerned about inflation.” – Rasmussen, August 24

“Eight-Year Loans Fuel Car Sales as Debt Warnings Ignored” “On a 96-month loan it takes 80-plus months before you are back in the money.”

“New-home prices [in China] fell last month. In Wenzhoa, 56% of the homes were abandoned due to falling values.” from Bloomberg, August 20

“We have more leverage and more derivatives risk than we’ve ever had.” from the Financial Times, August 20

Historical steps since 1928. Today we are in a very large megaphone formation. This formation “may” take years to end pic.twitter.com/Xl3pCM9MsE

A significant decline within the bull market channel could label the bull market since 2009 as a large step 1. Followed by steps 2 & 3.

A couple of years ago I became aware of a possibility of a significant decline and still continue the prevailing bull market. (continued)

Recent step history. It would take a large decline to break the channel for the 2009 bull market. (continued) pic.twitter.com/fHIGn62hPc

This looks like a bad news is really a good news event. Bad news means FED might not end QE.???? The step up since Oct 2011 is geriatric.

The count up since 8/7/14 “could” be as pictured. Without a channel break there’s no trend break or reversal pic.twitter.com/ldbKgrk91M

Action by the ECB to weaken Euro to combat deflation would push the dollar higher. This would push commodity prices even lower – John Murphy

Look at the plunging Euro. Euro zone has lotsa problems, wondering how their problems will affect USA (trade) ??? pic.twitter.com/2wBbWTfjGf

John Murphy was showing today how the rising dollar is lowering the price of commodities (including oil) pic.twitter.com/BgGA3at17F

“My Charts” – Indicator Explanation – Page 1 has been posted to my blog, use the link below wp.me/p1DRwF-30N

(Putin’s) . . . reminder that Russia is a major nuclear power. To me, it is pretty eerie our markets can ignore such rants. Says Jeff Saut

“My Charts” – Indicator Explanation – Page 1 wp.me/p1DRwF-30N

Aug 2014 – 81 TWEETS

“Don’t mess with Russia. We’re a powerful nuclear nation” – Putin Republican response is defense $. Given our problems makes it probably OK

I’ll publish the first page of My Charts definitions on Tuesday. Nobody is interested in the stock market this weekend.

I’m going to a do a blog update for the chart definitions one page at a time. This way I can take my time completing the definitions. YEAAA

I’m writing a blog that explains My Charts. What have I gotten myself into? This is going to take a lot of work & I don’t like work. Woe.

John Murphy says: EUROZONE STOCKS ALSO WEAKEN ON UKRAINE TENSIONS AND LOWER RUSSIAN STOCKS

John Murphy says: FALLING EUROZONE BOND YIELDS PULL HIGHER-YIELDING TREASURY YIELDS LOWER AS DEFLATION THREAT WORSENS (continued)

J. Murphy says: RISING DOLLAR & PLUNGING EURO REFLECT WEAKER ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN EUROPE (continued)

Our “peace dividend” from the 90s is finished. The US’s fantastic & expensive Gee-Whiz weapons are now headed for development & deployment

Gold I thought the June bottom was good, but maybe not. We’ll see after the correction is done. Double bottom??? pic.twitter.com/87OW5yHVd1

Unsure which trend line is valid, yellow or purple? We’ll see. pic.twitter.com/NkSRNfkccR

Looking at this pic, which shows larger cap down to micro-cap. The smaller the cap the better its doing today. (???) pic.twitter.com/cspx088SEo

No newer high and no step up on this index (micro cap). Micros are sensitive to trends pic.twitter.com/xuO2l5orcq

Yesterday said: Wave counts completed with an alternate count showing another step upward??? Got another step upward. Correction now.

@Stock_Trend_Chg Lower lows determine if the count is finished or has one more rally left.

Have a merry Labor Day? Have a happy Labor Day? Have a lively Labor Day? Have a 3 sheets to the wind Labor Day? Have ’em all & stay safe

It will take several days to finish the chart explanations. I rearrange charts occasionally, so a chart you like may change its location

I’m preparing a blog update that will explain My Chart entries. Someone said they didn’t understand My Charts and suspect they aren’t alone

Wave counts completed with an alternate count showing another step upward??? Cycle shows a bottom sometime next week pic.twitter.com/O3hQXMA3vI

Needing a more descriptive name, I’ve changed my username to Stock_Trend_Chg. Followers should be unaffected & continue following new name.

Chart showing all of step 3 up. Remember that step 3 began with a fake-out low in Oct 2011. pic.twitter.com/lLxDFCHTMj

Chart showing part of step 3 up pic.twitter.com/u6hUgO9cWF

Jeff Saut sounds more bearish than tentative today. He doesn’t like the continuing failure of another Dow Theory Buy signal.

Putin knows we can’t outspend Russia into self-destructing this time (oil). Putin could possibly do that to us & that might be his end game

“U.S. official says 1,000 Russian troops enter Ukraine” Return to the Semi-Cold War days can’t be good for the deficit.

Dow Industrials and Transports have not made new closing highs. They are close to their July peaks. Many other indexes have made new highs

There are a LOT of people looking for a decline to occur soon. Those people (me too) are almost never right when they become the majority

Presently both the Dow Industrials and Transports are shy of their prior closing highs. In Dow Theory, only the closing numbers are counted

Interesting cycle timing chart. Simple but effective enough. pic.twitter.com/di0R3zJ3t0

If we don’t break through prior highs with a significant rally, Jeff Saut could become bearish. Right now, he is very tentative.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see a replay of the last significant rally. Another Dow Theory buy signal followed by a decline. (continued)

The 5-year to 30-year US yield curve is the flattest since the 2008 crisis, so the bond market is worried about something. says Jeff Saut

We should know if the alternate wave count was correct very soon, because a small decline has begun.

I’m not a Ron Paul supporter or a Libertarian, but I thought this article was interesting. …arketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/fergus…

“it will just temporarily deflate those bubbles that represent the greatest distortion of asset prices”

“QE never created viable growth, it just inflated asset prices. Likewise, the winding down of QE will not manifest growth,” (continued)

Plunging bond yields prior to 2007 were a mystery. Did they anticipate the 2007-2009 recession?? But global bond yields are plunging again

Here is an alternate count to the same SPX chart below. I’m watching the trend breaks for clues to which is correct pic.twitter.com/Mi2EZc0Z5M

No trend break and we’re in 4th step up in the SPX. New highs are being made on this late rally beginning on 8/7/14 pic.twitter.com/fjGyD7j9lv

In 3rd step up & watching for TREND BREAK with lower lows. Beware of possible 5 steps up. Trend break tells the tale pic.twitter.com/PcqZEqPdVQ

How much does a dollar buy in your state?? pic.twitter.com/R84c4FE6fc

The fan is still working on Thursday. @bobswavecounts

Smaller cap stock are underperforming large caps. Picture shows large, mid, small and micro cap indexes. Note % pic.twitter.com/zJF1SV4w3i

A short term Fibonacci fan that worked well today. This will possibly stop working during the night hours. pic.twitter.com/3cI8dDUosT

The downward blip passed & it was panicky investors reacting to the FED Minutes. We never had lower lows to make us think about selling

Watching for lower lows and lower highs. The count is off slightly for a peak but I never argue with lower prices. pic.twitter.com/cKm36KXLY9

Cycle bottom for May 2015. Cycle has worked onlyl since 2009. Bottoms on 2/2014, 11/2012, 8/2011, 5/2010, & 2/2009 pic.twitter.com/CJJz43dAsH

Fibonacci fan from 2000 peak to 2009 bottom. The 2nd highest line pegged the 2007 peak. Will it call the next peak?? pic.twitter.com/32R4qHD4fi

Another interesting chart. It begins in Oct 1928. The early dates are wrong and should be in the 1900s not 2000s pic.twitter.com/z7Sohibppd

Possible target price chart. pic.twitter.com/ubacgMdfvG

Junk bonds bottomed on Aug 1 and have rallied nicely. pic.twitter.com/bROovj7f8c

Jeff Saut said: A decisive breakout above 1950 would suggest at least a test of the all-time highs and likely more.

You can see the 4th step beginning in the Russell micro cap index. This index is weaker than the NASDAQ Composite. pic.twitter.com/aiN9Z5qYmV

NASDAQ shows 3rd step up, while smaller cap Russell charts show the count as 4th step up. I would probably go with the count on the Russells

The NASDAQ is at new highs and that usually portends well for the market. Need to check the Russell Micro, Small & Mid cap for confirmation

In retrospect, I don’t have a clue where I got that “completed 3rd step”. It was actually a completed 2nd step. pic.twitter.com/62XCaaq9Zu

You can double click on any of the Twitter charts to enlarge them. You don’t need to be stuck looking at the tiny charts inside the tweet.

SKEW index going up again & adds to the prospects of another decline. SKEW doesn’t tell you when market will decline pic.twitter.com/Q7svEbCZgk

It looks like 3 completed steps up. This could be the beginning of 3rd step down, projected to end around Sept 1st pic.twitter.com/lfxoeLlv7A

SKEW is declining quickly indicating a reversal is likely taking place. Another buy point possible on Mon or Tue ???? pic.twitter.com/w85e6W4jt5

SPX retraced 50% of rally beginning in April. DJIA stopped on 200 day line. Outside bar today (one day reversal) pic.twitter.com/mLjuZyRHHr

Dow Jones Industrials shown stopping on 200 day moving average. Penetration should come on a later step. pic.twitter.com/W2P4D3Z54a

Showing the Mickey Mouse cycle chart again. It worked, what more can I say??? I first posted this chart on Aug 7th. pic.twitter.com/hDL88TNKrh

Rising wedge in the last step up is a big warning sign for lotsa downside activity when the wedge is broken pic.twitter.com/Pmd0FgiNW0

Pitchfork dating from late 2012 is still in force. When the lower line is violated the rally from Oct 2011 is over. pic.twitter.com/ahL7B3LwCA

SPX retraced 50% of rally from 4/14 to 7/24. SPX stopped on 200 day line. Tweeted cycle chart on 8/7 showing bottom Thu or Fri & was perfect

“Probably” got that Thu or Fri bottom I mentioned yesterday. “Possible” another step down could take place, if so, no problems on downside

Ragged rally last night and today we’re on the downside again. Check out the chart looking for a bottom Thu or Fri ?? pic.twitter.com/g6c4HzzgfP

Market is struggling trying to get over the yellow line. When it makes it above, market could take off to the upside pic.twitter.com/6diCTZI13C

Market looks sold out and ripe for a rally. We’ll see in a short while.

The decline that began on 7/24 is likely finished. More should follow at a later date. The Fibonacci fan worked well pic.twitter.com/9PCkAtz0PS

NASDAQ is tearing up to the upside with much greater relative strength over the large caps. I wouldn’t bet against small caps presently.

Only a SMALL penetration of the prior low. I’m dismissing the new low cuz of tiny penetration. Only large caps were weak with new lows

This “could” be the steepest decline of the prior two steps. Step 3 can generate waterfall declines and we’re in step 3 down.

Rally finished, DJIA made new low today. SPX & NASDAQ will follow. This should be 3rd step of this decline & end of larger step 1 down.

I finished the last tweet and 1 minute later, market broke out to upside.

I wouldn’t be surprised by breakout to the upside soon. If doesn’t happen, not good sign – or I have the count wrong, always a possibility

Market is significantly oversold, see page 2 chart #1 and #2 (longer and shorter term oscillators) stockcharts.com/public/1169350…

NASDAQ is moving ahead of the larger cap indexes presently. That’s a good sign for the rally. It’s a warning if that changes

A Fibonacci Fan for the decline using the SP futures. I would expect these lines to still have power over any rally pic.twitter.com/JWZu6LTHwU

That last tweet is what you call bottom fishing, but for the moment it’s doing OK.

Looking for a short term rally (3 days??) beginning Friday. It MUST move up with vigor to qualify, better than any rally since 7/28 to 7/29

Jul 2014 – 54 TWEETS

Russell 2000 Then & Now wp.me/p1DRwF-30l

I’m not saying it’s 1987 all over again, only that similarities would exist if Friday we lost more than today. It’s just IF IF IF

As expected, we did get the minor Dow Theory Sell Signal today.

Only IF Friday lost more than 300 points tomorrow, it would remind me of 1987. In 1987, the days got worse until Monday lost 22.6%.

NASDAQ made its low of the day about 30 minutes before the close. The large cap low came just before the close.

And it looks like it’s trying to close on the low of the day. We’ll see how that turns out in another 40 minutes.

We’re probably gonna test the bottom now. Another step down coming or a successful bottom test???

Gold is in 3rd step down since a short term peak on July 10. Reversal in gold possible if it’s not in a 5 step up pic.twitter.com/Y9J4j77Aqa

NASDAQ still stronger than the large cap indexes. Rally has further to go. pic.twitter.com/lL5olHayj1

@bobswavecounts This indicator didn’t CLOSE at an extreme level and that nullified the earlier call for a rally.

Simple 13 day cycle. Next low should be around 8/7 (plus or minus a day or two). A T high is slated around 8/11 pic.twitter.com/nQv7wxS39i

Better rally presently in the NASDAQ than the large cap indexes. That means the rally temporarily might have legs.

An oscillator I follow gave a BUY signal on May 8th and REMAINED a buy until today. This is based on a close in this area of decline.

Did anyone ever tell you that bottom fishing is very dangerous??? Been there, done that.

Small & mid-cap indexes are very weak today. When they show relative strength, we will probably have a genuine rally. No sign of that yet

This decline is sub-stepping and my rule is to beware sub-stepping markets (up or down), because they go for awhile before stopping.

A 3rd version of lower stopping points. All 3 have similar stopping points, but this one is based on bigger bottom. pic.twitter.com/siSjhXls3y

Possible rally coming??? How big will it be??? First of the month is always good for a rally point.

Another version of stopping points during the decline. This version could be more likely pic.twitter.com/awMJ2OVnAZ

If we close in the area where the market is presently, we’ll get a minor Dow Theory Sell Signal. But a minor sell could lead to a major sell

Duhhhhh . . . do you think there is something wrong with the market Possible stopping points during the decline pic.twitter.com/lavPyyfqpp

The small and mid-caps are stronger than the large cap today. An indicator is showing extreme condition today & market has rallied day after

FED announcement is 2:00 PM EDT. More fireworks. The FED can only disappoint the market with its QE schedule. QE is what propels the bull.

What ails the market? GDP was great at 4%, better than anticipated by 1%. Market convinced FED will remove QE as expected, or earlier.

I put a new chart up today. It’s Mark Cook’s Cumulative Tick Indicator and it’s on Page 1 Chart 4. An earlier tweet referred to Mark Cook

A substantially lower GDP would prompt the FED to keep QE going longer than the recent announcements. GDP is 8:30, FED is 11:00, FIREWORKS!

Not saying it’s going to happen, but what if the 2nd quarter GDP comes in well below expectations of 3%??? GDP comes out at 8:30 AM EDT Wed

This is an interesting article. Doesn’t mean it will happen immediately, but it could. Who knows for sure?? marketwatch.com/story/stock-tr…

John Murphy Says SMALL CAP DIVERGENCE IS TROUBLING wp.me/p1DRwF-304

The market has set itself up on Monday to go up or down depending on the prevailing winds. That’s deep stuff there. pic.twitter.com/IWtwFPFQ1H

@cgoodman14 Costco OLD FARTS get out of the way, go home and go to bed.

Record high for Transports but no new high for Industrials. SP500 made high today. Upper line in chart still holding pic.twitter.com/kFfh60QOqA

Took me 3 tries to get that last tweet right . . . duhhhh

% above 200 day MA, top is NASDAQ, small cap, mid cap, SP500, Dow Jones. Damage begins @ small cap & rises to Lg cap pic.twitter.com/sqsG4Zj3m0

My Most Important Discovery by Edson Gould wp.me/p1DRwF-2ZU

2002 MTA Award – Identifying Bear Market Bottoms & New Bull Markets by Paul Desmond wp.me/p1DRwF-2Zu

40 year old articles written by Edson Gould are on my blog, these papers are available EXCLUSIVELY on my blog stock-market-observations.com/2014/07/20/eds…

Internal erosion of large cap stock indexes won’t be seen until near a market top. Erosion small caps can continue up to a year B4 breakdown

Small & mid-cap internal erosion taking place as Desmond explained in his paper “Warning Signs Of Major Market Tops” stock-market-observations.com/2014/05/27/527…

See internals on PAGE 1 CHART 5 to CHART 8stockcharts.com/public/1169350

Large caps might make closing highs today. Internals aren’t keeping up with prices, but internals don’t tell when a breakdown will occur

Watch upper red line, if restricts upward move in DJ Industrials, it’s upward wedge, break below lower line bearish pic.twitter.com/cKzi0h0bpH

Where Now – The 3 Step Rule By Edson Gould (1976) wp.me/p1DRwF-2YP

The Market Now – The 3 Step Rule In Action By Edson Gould (1974) wp.me/p1DRwF-2YA

EDSON GOULD ARTICLE INDEX wp.me/p1DRwF-2Yj

Bonds – Written by Edson Gould (1975) wp.me/p1DRwF-2XS

Oversold bounce is obviously in effect today, perhaps Monday too? It’s not engraved in stone that the correction is underway. Well see.

This is an important wedge to watch for a downside penetration. pic.twitter.com/wnFjkbicrL

Market is oversold and a pause or rally could begin on late Friday or Monday(???). See Page 2 Chart 0 and Chart 1 for chart oscillators.

Since today’s close SP500 futures are down another 10 points. If that doesn’t change, we will have a gap down opening tomorrow. We’ll see

“Intraday” new high in both Dow industrials & transports today, but will close with significant losses for today. Looks like a reversal day

Got the Dow Theory Buy Signal today. If the small caps like Russell 2000 ($RUT) turned up, the outlook would be bullish, otherwise bearish

We could get a Dow Theory Buy Signal today & begin the correction. That’s really perverse, but it’s what I expect, or something close to it

Jun 2014 – 21 TWEETS

6/30/14 – Super Secret Indicator, Cycles & Gold wp.me/p1DRwF-2WF

I think gold may have finally made a good bottom. We’ll see soon. I’m going to trade GDX, GOLD & GLD, gold mining & physical gold.

Page 5 is a new addition to my charts. It’s internals on various sectorsstockcharts.com/public/1169350

Check out “PAGE 4 CHART 2 – – JUNK BOND SENTIMENT – DAILY – ENTIRE STEP 3” to see the obvious count in junk sentiment.

I’m watching to see if the futures continue with lower highs and lower lows.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=…

Terry almost exclusively used the Best Bond strategy for his clients and had excellent yearly returns. My Charts stockcharts.com/public/1169350

On My Charts check out “PAGE 4 CHART 1 – – BEST BOND PERFORMANCE” using tools from Terry Laundry”. Terry had returns of 20% with “Best Bond”

We’re in rally mode after having an apparent 3 step down. The rally “should” stop short of the prior high and have more decline. But . . .

Classic reversal day today (Tue). Now watch support & resistance. First up is the June 12th low. After that, we’ll wait & see

The jury decided to have a correction. The channel of last few days is broken, but is that it, or is there more to come? We’ll wait and see

My recent bout of bearishness was because it looked like we had completed a recent small step up. The jury hasn’t decided that one yet.

Not much of a reversal is taking place today. Let’s wait and see what happens tomorrow.

A reversal is taking place today. The reversal would be more meaningful if the depth of the loss were to deepen. pic.twitter.com/dMKNxZMlhS

My super secret indicators (SSI) show Ind & Trn are in good shape, but the SSI utilities is showing problems. Unsure why or what it means

You need to watch the next reversal to see if it’s going to turn into something bigger. Probably won’t be it might be interesting.

One of John W. Thomason drawings of my grandfather taking company roll call, 5th Marines, China. pic.twitter.com/mLJ2zY2vll