Stock-Market-Observations

8/15/13 . . . 

READ ME FIRST

to help you understand my unorthodox wave counting method.

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MY TWEETS

MY FACEBOOK PAGE  – All my Tweets and Blog updates will appear on this page.

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Are you keeping up to date by reading MY TWEETS ???  I haven’t published a blog update in recent days but I have been tweeting.  We have an important decline underway and where it fits in the big picture is going to be interesting.  Meantime, we have a Hurst time objective for an important low to occur from Oct to Jan.

We have a rally (finally) and it stopped right below the highs for Monday.  Next up is to watch for the breakout above the Monday highs.  That should be a decent signal that a more extensive rally is underway.

The worst case scenario is that instead of just completing step 3 down last night. we have only completed 3 of 5.  Failing to rally above Monday’s high should tell us a lot about that.

I really dashed this sucker off fast today as I got things to do, people to see.

I’m late!
I’m late!
For a very important date!
No time to say “Hello”, goodbye!
I’m late!
I’m late!
I’m late!

Said the white rabbit

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JEFF SAUT – AUGUST 19th

The call for this week: Over the weekend a portfolio manager told me that 10% corrections in a bull market are few and far between. Historically, that’s correct, but in recent years history has not mattered much. Consider this, in 2010, 2011, and 2012 I recommended raising cash in the spring with the strategy of putting that cash back to work during the summer. Following those “cash calls” the SPX declined, on an intraday high to intraday low basis, by 16.9% (2010), 21.4% (2011), and 10.9% (2012). This year I opined that “sell in May and go away” was not going to play. However, I do think it plays here. Indeed, we are still in that “dead zone” where there is a void of catalysts – no Fed, no earnings, summer holidays, etc. – which should leave the SPX vulnerable. That said, the McClellan Oscillator is pretty oversold in the short-term, and there are some positive energy points coming in on Tuesday, so some kind of rally attempt should be in the cards. Still, I think rallies are for selling on a trading basis, but remain quite bullish on the longer-term given the 7.4% earnings yield on next year’s estimated earnings.

Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James is a very savvy guy and one of the few interesting people that I follow.   I found Jeff years ago among the talking heads on CNBC, which is normally populated with talking heads spouting popular opinions. When I saw Jeff for the first time, he was  mentioning different ideas than everyone else was regurgitating.  Immediately this catches my attention because I’m ALWAYS interested in anyone that has a mind apart from Wall Street.  Following the crowd will get you killed on Wall Street.  After listening to him over time, I realized he was smart, insightful and normally on the mark.

Jeff reminds me of Robert Farrell of Merrill Lynch fame (1970s and 1980s), who achieved a large following and was frequently on target.  Bob Farrell was one of my favorites.

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This entry was posted on August 20, 2013 at 11:53 AM and is filed under JEFF SAUT, UPDATE. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.