November 2004 – T Theory® Update
Update November 5 2004
The last few days are providing technical strength needed to confirm the new Short Range T sketched in the chart below. Click on the image for a larger view.
As per my earlier comment, the real power of any rally starting from the center of a new is usually crammed into the first few weeks. Thus the new uptrend needs to establish its longer-term momentum during the November period if the rally is going to develop meaningful investment potential into mid 2005. I expect this will be the case but the only way to demonstrate strength is to punch the S&P through the adaptive channel upper bound noted by the red dashed line.
In the recent past, rallies halted at the upper bound and corrections followed. To break that pattern a bullish case must force the upside thrust of the S&P very high and hold it high so the adaptation process can readjust the channel slope and width to a more bullish state. I will comment further as more data comes in but the trend should remain persistently strong for a few more weeks if a long-term uptrend is to be established.
Terry Laundry
Update November 12 2004
The S&P is showing satisfactory strength and should advance through the right side of last weeks T construction well into the New Year. Gold is trying to breakout of a 6-year top zone around $430/oz and expect this will be successful. More data is need for both markets but I would be bullish in both outcomes. Terry Laundry
Update November 19 2004
The current rally has the momentum to carry through the right side of the current as noted in the chart below. Click on the image for a more detailed view.
In the days ahead the S&P is likely to work erratically higher, but it is overbought and generally any new buying will not be justified until the S&P 500 pulls back to the 55 day MA, now at 1132, but rising a bit each day.
If one waits for the topping pattern to run out of short term upside momentum, which may take a few weeks, the S&P will dart back down to the MA in a brief correction that provides the next best buying opportunity.
Terry Laundry
Update December 3 2004
The uptrend started by the current Short Range T detailed in my prior update has run up to the 39-week Adaptive Channel nominal High Extreme around S&P 500 1194 where resistance would be expected. The Short Range T however projects continued strength into the first half of March 2005. Click on the image for a larger view.
This is normally resolved by a steady but choppy rally that gradually pushes the S&P further into the red dashed line. How strongly the trend can push into this resistance will depend on how well the A-D Line in the lower portion of the chart can sustain its long rise.
Note the red A-D Line was already rising during the 2004 correction phase even as the S&P bounced along the 39 week MA represented by the black mid channel line. Thus I would expect a positive trend to be sustained. As is common, the A-D Line is a good leading indicator. Any weakening of its uptrend would most likely warn of any important top.
The upside resistance provided by my adaptive channel concept will cause periodic correction to the uptrend, however these nearly always end at the 55 day MA as noted in my daily chart in the prior update. Currently that level is at 1143 on the S&P and it rises about a point each week.
At some point this choppy behavior will allow the S&P to slip down to the 1143 or so level where it will find renewed support and a sharp rally will carry this index back up to the High Extreme which will probably be somewhat higher that the current 1194 level. This may take six weeks or so to evolve. Terry Laundry
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I claim no credit for the material found under T Theory® on this blog. All of this material is the creation of Terry Laundry and was downloaded from Terry’s free blog site (TypePad). I have created a mirror of Terry’s original material and now there is a second site containing Terry’s T Theory®. One or both of these websites hopefully will survive through time as Terry’s material is too important to be lost to the ravages of time. This site is simply a memorial to his lifetime work.
The page content re-blogged here is exactly as Terry created on his original webpages (saved on my computer with ScrapBook)). Nothing has been left out from the period Dec 2003 to June 2011. From Terry’s site, I made a lot of formatting changes, creating a more easily readable webpage appearance. The PDF chart duplicates of the JPEGs have been omitted for ease and speed of recreating Terry’s pages. References to PDF charts should be ignored (but no chart was left out).
After June 2011, Terry created a paid subscription website. None of that material is found here.
There were many many, many hours spent on this project; downloading Terry’s individual charts & audio files, followed by the uploading of Terry’s charts and audio to my WordPress blog library, after which I had to insert the uploaded material into my new T Theory® webpages (hopefully in the correct places). This was a dull and arduous project and I hope you enjoy it. I don’t believe there remains any more of Terry’s material in free domain, so my T Theory® project is probably finished. If I’ve missed something, you can leave me a comment.
If you find an uploaded reference error (chart or audio in the wrong place), please note the month and year of the webpage, plus the exact name of the referenced error file. Include any other info that will help me locate the problem file and where it occurs on the webpage. Leave a comment for me with the info and I’ll fix it.
Terry’s material is very long and will take many weeks for you to finish. Don’t hurry, it’s not a marathon and you will absorb more if you go through it at a reasonable rate. This is especially true for those who don’t invest in the T Theory® reference encyclopedia. The encyclopedia is a written reference for T Theory® and includes everything of importance for Terry’s T Theory®. Without the reference encyclopedia you must depend on your memory and Terry’s method carries some rules that you could easily violate. The encyclopedia also includes new information never seen on his website.
You are welcome to save any or all of my blog material to your computer. You also have my permission to re-blog my information, but you must (1) credit me and my blog in an obvious manner and (2) don’t change my material.
FYI – I find the best way to save a webpage is using “ScrapBook” (it’s an add-on for the FireFox browser). ScrapBook saves a webpage to your computer EXACTLY as it appears on the day you saved it. You can’t tell the difference between the internet webpage and your ScrapBook saved webpage. The saved pages are not pictures. Instead the pages consist of HTML and page functionality remains identical on your computer. There is also a second method for using ScrapBook, where you can save all of the webpages down to a defined link depth. This optional method means all links will function on your computer to the link depth specified (meaning you can click on links on your saved webpages and tunnel down into pages within pages). Saving the normal way will only save the top webpage but the links that exist could continue to function by taking you to the website on the internet instead of on your computer. But sometimes the linked website doesn’t exist anymore. I’ve had this happen on some very good webpages with unique information (they just disappear into the internet void). That’s a bummer when you lost some really good info and thus rose my need for ScrapBook. You can also filter the pages saved using the optional ScrapBook method, which can exclude all pages not coming directly from the specified website (filtering is recommended using this method otherwise you wind up with a LOT of useless stuff).
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