11/13/12 – Messages From StockCharts (complete)
The following are the complete market trading messages from chart #10.0 (first chart). If you have been following my comments, you have already seen these. This is basically a record of my rambling comments.
StockCharts limits my comments and when I exceed that limit, everything disappears. It takes awhile to recreate the comments and is a big pain.
As with all real-time messages, there is a lot of USELESS TRASH INCLUDED in these comments.
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MARKET MESSAGE
1. Message length is limited by StockCharts. Everything just disappears when I exceed their limit and I have to recreate (lotsa work)
2. Wave Counts and Bressert Money Management System are explained at: https://stock-market-observations.com/2011/07/02/odds-n-ends/
3. Copy and paste are not possible in the charting area but you can copy from the notes at the bottom of this group of charts. Internet addresses are duplicated in this area for copying.
4. Always use STOPS. They allow you to sleep better and make early decisions without stress or emotion. Emotion is not your friend.
5. All times are Pacific time.
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11/13/12 – TUE
@10:11 – The SOX on #10.6 seems to think that the decline finished.
@10:01 – The futures were down about 14 points last night before reversing, forming a double bottom (Friday and today). Rally has run out of steam and is falling back in a correction. The count “appears” to be in step 4 down but that is ALWAYS dependent on not breaking the downward channel. See what I think the count is since 9/14 at: https://stockmarketobservations.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/11-13-12-sp-futures-since-sep-14th.jpg
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November 16, 2012 at 11:32 PM
Thanks Bob.
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November 15, 2012 at 11:42 AM
Hi,
I had mixed feeling about the first step (Oct 2011) in real-time, but after confirmation from so many different indexes, I had to call the first rally during Oct 2011 as step 1.
Often times you need to locate (verify) the count on the preceding decline to verify the following rally count. That will often clear things up as to where the rally count begins. Without this you can begin at the wrong place (been there done that – crap, I’ve done it all over the last 56 years of trading).
See all the charts on #10.3, 10.4 and 10.5 for step clarity. They all seem to say the same thing.
You could be right and I hope so but . . . (???)
I should have called an outright sell signal when we peaked on step 3 of 3 recently. I saw it happen and knew it in real time but I sat idle. If I had made the call it would have been the same relative count sell as my signal in April/May 2011 (end of a 3 step), but I failed to do it becuz I didn’t want it to be true.
May 2011 was a protracted correction and was a very typical step 2 correction. The step 1 correction was a non-event in comparison. This lends credence to my step count.
I think we have a “possible” chance of declining below Oct 2011, stopping “somewhere reasonable” and then rising again. All from March 2009 could then become step 1 up in an enormous bull move. This forthcoming decline would be a “mini” bear market breaking the trend from March 2009. It’s possible and we’ll wait and see. Wishful thinking is free.
Naturally we can get 5 steps up and I have genuine hope that a 5 is in the mix. As I said, 2013 was my target date for termination but that’s a guess and worthless in the end. Guesses don’t count.
Before the world ends, it’s not unusual that you get a last chance to sell but most never take it. The Oct 2007 peak was a perfect example. The bear market was under way (that summer) but no one recognized how serious the situation was.
Well that turned out a LOT windier than I expected but I’m busy throwing ideas against the wall trying to make something stick.
When the going gets tough, the tough go to lunch with friends and that’s where I’m headed soon.
Bob
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November 15, 2012 at 10:55 AM
Bob,
I think we still are in Large step 3 up. We have finished step 2 of 3 at 1474. Wave 2 corrections can as you say be very deep, so I expect the final 3 of 3 after this 2 correction ends.
So can you examine Wave 1 and see If my count is correct.
Boel
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