Stock-Market-Observations

MY CHARTS

LONG TERM, SHORT TERM – WHAT’S BEST???

Recently I have made a few correct short term calls probably because I know our position in the wave structure.  When things become confusing (they always do), I may not be able to make short term calls with a degree of certainty.  And due to the fog normally associated with the short term, one should aim for more reliability found in the intermediate to longer term.

Another part of my message is aimed for investors that stocks are to be sold, not held forever.  During a bull market peak when greed reins supreme, that message usually falls on deaf ears.

Today I want to look at the intermediate/longer term outlook for the stock market because it’s of prime importance.  My short to intermediate term sell signal of April 3, 2012 was based on my longer term interpretations.

WHERE WE’VE BEEN

Only after we make a significant new low below April 10, 2012 will it be safe to say that we have begun a significant correction.  So far all we have is a completed 3 step down.

The market could do many things from this point, such as rallying to a new high or beginning a multi-step down.  There is no proof at this point which scenario is in play.

It seems to me that we have not had a large enough correction to break the “look” of the rally since late November 2011.  Of course if I have miscounted and we have not finished that rally, we should have one more step up before beginning the correction.

At this time I believe that we began a significant correction on April 2, 2012.  This outlook doesn’t preclude the possibility of significant rallies, but the overall trend should be downward.

WHAT’S HAPPENING?

It appears that we have a head and shoulders forming in many of the indexes.  A break above the prior high will negate this formation.  But a break below the neckline will also validate the head and shoulders formation.

Is it possible that we are repeating the timing of last year????

Many indexes peaked in February 2011 while others peaked slightly higher in May 2011.  This was followed by a correction that lasted until early October 2011.  Today there are “some” similarities taking place in the indexes.  One of the main differences in 2012 is that the indexes have been weaker to this point than in 2011.

Canadian blue chips have been warning for over a year that there was something wrong in their market.  They are heavily dependent on oil, gold and commodities.  Commodities and the stock market have been locked together for several years and this could be a major warning to our stock market.  Below is the TSX Canadian index compared to the SP500.  It’s very obvious that the TSX has lagged badly in 2012 and its telling us something is wrong.

Here is a 15 week comparison chart of the SOX, COMPQ, TXX and SPX.  You can see how the SOX was warning of an impending problem well before the others by forming almost a double top.

HURST CYCLES – PRESENT

The following is one of the more extensive Hurst cycle studies that I’ve done.  It includes the near future and the period approaching the March 2009 bottom.

The first chart shows the period, September 2011 to February 2013.  There was a cycle bottoming from late March to the first week of April 2012.  It’s safe to say that the April 10, 2012 bottom was that predicted cycle bottom.

The next cycle of importance is expected around June 2012.  As we approach that date, the wave count plus the Hurst cyclic data should fine tune the expected date range.  Whether the June 2012 bottom is the end of the correction that began on April 2, 2012 can’t be answered at this time.

A more important cycle date is due from mid-November to January 2013.  This cycle is the same one that bottomed in October 2011, which provided us with a sizable rally.  If we are undergoing an extensive correction, it’s conceivable this cycle could be the bottom of the current correction.  Notice that the November elections is within the window for this cycle.  But as usual we’ll wait and see.

The next chart shows the period, January 2009 to April 2014.  This gives you a broader view of the cycles expected between now and 2014.

The cycle that bottoms from September 2013 to January 2014 is the same cycle that bottomed in March 2009.  Obviously this is an important cycle given the importance of the 2009 bottom.

I have stated repeatedly since 2003 that I was anticipating the end of the bear market that began in 2000 to end in 2018.  Does the Hurst cyclic data support that supposition???

The following chart shows the period from 2006 to 2030.  Previously, we had seen the important cyclic bottom for late 2013.  The next cycle on this chart is late 2017 to early 2018.  That certainly gives credence to the “possibility” of an important bottom in 2018.  But a very important cyclic date ranges from late 2026 to late 2028.  This is the same cycle that last bottomed in 2009, before that it was 1990 and 1974.

Here is a possible scenario; we could have an important bottom in 2018, which would be comparable to the 1974 bottom.  The next important bottom in 2027 would be the kickoff point for the next bull market, which would equate to the 1982 bottom.  So 1974 and 1982 represent bear market bottom and bull market kickoff point, while 2018 and 2027 would be the bear market bottom and bull market kickoff point of the future.  Who knows what might happen, but that’s one fantasy prediction.

The same picture as above only with more detail, 1972 to 2033.

HURST CYCLES – PAST

I didn’t have the software that produces these charts prior to the March 2009 bottom.  I have often wondered how well it would have anticipated the 2009 bottom.

The first chart seeking the March 2009 bottom shows the period of 1990 to 2014 and the data stops on August 31, 2008.  In this chart the software believes that a significant bottom has occurred during the 3rd quarter of 2008.  It’s looking for a major bottom sometime from 2011 to 2012.  Looking back we know this is incorrect.

We could have stayed out of trouble in August 2008 because the wave count wasn’t complete.  At that time, staying out of the market was important because there were lots of rumors of Lehman Bros demise (and many other companies too).  Lehman filed for bankruptcy on 9/15/08 and the market collapsed upon itself due to this event.

The next chart shows the period of 1965 to 2014 and the data stops on March 31, 2009.  In retrospect we know the bottom has already occurred and a very snappy rally is underway.  The chart now indicates that it expects a significant bottom from 2010 to 2011.  The dates are moving backward towards the present but not enough to say a bottom has occurred.  The rally that has taken place by March 31 is not enough for the software to recognize that THE BOTTOM has occurred.  In fact many of us at that time didn’t know that the bear market of 2007 to 2009 was finished.

Sometimes if you look at a close-up view of the time in question, the smaller cycles may provide a clue to whether a major bottom has occurred, or will occur soon.

The next chart shows the period of August 2006 to December 2012 and the data stops on March 31, 2009.  This chart also isn’t much help.  It believes that the last significant cyclic bottom occurred in September 2008 and has no useful information for the immediate future.

The next chart shows the period of 1974 to 2011 and the data stops on 07/31/09.  At this point the market has had a good rally with higher highs but the software hasn’t recognized March 2009 as THE BOTTOM.  That result was a little surprising.  I think that the rally was significant but not enough TIME has passed to award March 2009 the title of THE BOTTOM.

The next chart shows the period of 1974 to 2011 and the data stops on 12/31/09. Finally the rally and the time element are enough to recognize March 2009 as THE BOTTOM.  By December 2009 the market hasn’t even completed step 1 up from March 2009.  There is a long ways to go before this bull is finished.

So what did this study tell us about the software for Hurst cycles?  Primarily it told us that if a cyclic bottom is not occurring reasonably close to its predicted date, we must wait for a rally of large enough significance to countermand the predicted date.  This is probably true all of the time for major bottoms.

Next I want to try a smaller dataset instead of the 1950 dataset.  A dataset that begins in 1998 may be an appropriate choice.  All I need to do is find the time to run the data and write about it.

A lot of time went into the creation of this blog update (2+ days).  I’m glad its finished.

PRINCIPLES OF HURST’S CYCLIC THEORY

The Principle of Commonality – All equity (or forex or commodity) price movements have many elements in common (in other words similar classes of tradable instruments have price movements with much in common)

The Principle of Cyclicality – Price movements consist of a combination of specific waves and therefore exhibit cyclic characteristics.

The Principle of Summation – Price waves which combine to produce the price movement do so by a process of simple addition.

The Principle of Harmonicity – The wavelengths of neighboring waves in the collection of cycles contributing to price movement are related by a small integer value.

The Principle of Synchronicity – Waves in price movement are phased so as to cause simultaneous troughs wherever possible

The Principle of Proportionality – Waves in price movement have an amplitude that is proportional to their wavelength.

The Principle of Nominality – A specific, nominal collection of harmonically related waves is common to all price movements.

The Principle of Variation – The previous four principles represent strong tendencies, from which variation is to be expected.

HURST CYCLE SOFTWARE

You can find further information about Hurst’s Cyclic Principles here.  There is lots of good Hurst info at that link.  If you want up to the minute info on the Hurst Cycles, consider subscribing to their service at the following link, Hurst Signals.  It’s a very good service and I’m a subscriber too.

The software to generate the cycles is expensive but Hurst Signals is more reasonable and the charts and comments are constantly updated throughout the market day.  One reason that I subscribe to their service is that it can be accessed quickly.  For me, I don’t have time to update my data files and boot up Parallels, a Windows virtual OS running concurrent inside Apple OS X.

Hurst Signals gives me the answers I need quickly and straight to the point and it’s reasonably cheap.  Hurst Signals operates inside your browser, hence the speed.  This service has confirmed my thoughts on an approaching bottom on more than one occasion.  Hurst Signals subscription price is $135 quarterly (less if you pay by the year).

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JEFFREY SAUT

The following recording is about 8 minutes long and first up on the recording is Jeff Saut answering one my emails.  I asked about the possibility of a multi-leg, multi-year bear market similar to 1965-1974.  He begins my answer with a typical “Hey Jeff”, and then moves on to comment about an excellent book “One Way Pockets”.  The book is great and the recording is worth the listen.

Jeffrey Saut’s Verbal Comments Regarding My Letter From 12/06/05

I emailed Jeff my question shortly before December 2005.  This was about 2 years after the end of the 2000 crash, and about 2 years prior to the October 2007 peak.  As you can tell from my letter I was thinking of the really BIG picture.

The book Jeffrey remarks about is highly recommended and it’s $10 at Amazon “One Way Pockets”.   I have both the print and eBook version (iPads rule).

Sorry about the quality of the recording but at the time I didn’t have the nifty Mac “WireTap Studios” capability of recording directly from “line in”.

Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James is a very savvy guy and one of the few people that I follow.   I found Jeff among the talking heads on CNBC, which is normally filled with worthless bobble-headed people. When I saw Jeff the first time, he was  telling the audience different ideas than what everyone else was regurgitating.  Immediately this catches my attention because I’m ALWAYS interested in anyone that has a mind apart from Wall Street.  After listening to him over time, I realized this guy is smart, insightful and normally right on the mark.  I find people like this very infrequently.

And here is the website for Raymond James Investment Planning

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FEAR, HOPE & GREED

Due to its importance, the following chart has become a constant in my blog.

The driving force of how the stock market arrives at a price is emotions and the primary of these emotions is “fear, hope and greed”.  It’s difficult for people to understand this principle because it doesn’t seem logical.

A comment I hear frequently is that the earnings of a company are still going up and the stock price MUST continue rising too.  That “can” be true depending on a lot of factors but it might not stop the market from cutting the PE of your stock in half.

Rising earnings and dividends were an ongoing theme throughout the 1973-1974 bear market.  Normally earnings suffer at some point during a bear market, but 1974 was the exception.  An over-priced market (remember the “Nifty 50” from 1972) plus an unstable political climate coupled with rising earnings came together in the perfect storm cutting the PE ratio of most stocks in half.

Mentioning the “Nifty 50” gives you some idea of the old fart that’s writing this blog.  I can make it even worse by asking; Do you remember President Kennedy jawboning the steel industry over their price hike in 1961?  There were consequences for those actions as President Kennedy was widely viewed as anti-business after the jawboning incident.  Naturally the stock market didn’t like that and since it was already ripe for a correction, it willingly obliged.  The market decline began in November 1961 (I think?).  But I remember very well the climactic plunge in May 1962 when the Dow Industrials lost 35 points in one day.  The Dow average was only 612 at the time and a loss of 35 points was huge.  It was a 5.7% one day plunge.  I thought the world was going to end as I had never seen anything similar.  I was a naive kid at the time and now I’m not naive, just an old kid.

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WISDOM

“In my own experience the largest profits we have ever taken have come from stocks purchased while they were making a new high in a market which was also momentarily expecting the top. As I have already pointed out the absolute price of a stock is unimportant. It is the direction of the price movement that counts. It is always probable, but never certain, that the direction of the price movement will continue. Soon after it reverses is time enough to sell. You should sell when you wish you had sold sooner, never when you think the top has arrived. That way you will never get the very best price—by hindsight your individual transactions will never look daring. But some of your profits will be large; and your losses should be quite small. That is all that is necessary for a satisfactory, enriching investment performance.

Stock Profits Without Forecasting – by Edgar S. Genstein”

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WAVE COUNTS SIMPLIFIED

Sometime during the period that I was subscribing to Edson Gould, 1973 to 1979, I changed Gould’s method of wave counting to my 3 steps up and 3 steps down theory.  It was also during this period that I noted a wave extension where a 3 step could turn into a 5 step (not a 4 step).  I got better at calling the waves as time elapsed, which is understandable as practice makes perfect.

I think Elliott’s ideas self destruct frequently in the stock market and his wave complexities are so extreme that you can manipulate the count to say anything you need.  I have seen Robert Prechter use Elliott Wave effectively at times but not consistently.  For me, consistency is important.

• My wave counts are not Elliott Wave!  It’s different, simple and functions without a maze of exclusions.

• There are 3 peaks (or valleys) to a completed wave count. A reversal of trend takes place after a completed wave count.   Often times it’s as simple as counting 3 bumps (or dips) on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy.
• In a downtrend the same rules apply except you are counting 3 dips instead of 3 bumps.
• 3 steps must stay confined to a channel.  Laying a straight edge on the chart will help you visualize the channel.
• As the larger trend progresses, all of the steps that make up the trend will also be confined to a larger channel.  Sometimes a channel doesn’t become clear until the surge phase (vertical move) has ended and the market settles into a methodical uptrend.
• When the market breaks its channel (regardless of the perceived wave count), the step has terminated.  This may often be your best indicator that a wave count has been completed.
• Sometimes ONE of the 3 waves will sub-divide into another 3 waves.  I call this an extension.  When this happens (1) the trend is still intact, (2) the overall channel will widened and (3) instead of a total of 3 steps, there will be 5 steps.
• There are always trends within trends from the short term of a few days to the super long term trend that may last centuries.  Fitting it together gives you remarkable market perspective.
• The correction following the second step is normally larger than the correction that followed the first step.
• Usually I will use the terms “step” and “wave” interchangeably.  I frequently think of a step as shorter in duration and a wave as longer term; such as there are 3 steps to a wave.  But the steps/waves are all kinda the same as they fit inside one another like a matryoshka or Russian nesting doll.

• THE FOLLOWING IS ALSO AN IMPORTANT CONCEPT

• At the conclusion of a 3 (or 5) step move, their will be a counter move.  This counter move MUST be of sufficient strength (or duration) to BREAK THE CHANNEL of the prior move.  Breaking the channel has the appearance of breaking the “LOOK” of the prior move (channel).
  
• If a channel break doesn’t occur after ALL of the counter trend steps have evolved, you have miscounted the steps and the previous trend is not finished.
  
• Breaking the channel is a very important concept because this may be the only clue you have that your count was incorrect.

• Reading the glossary helps in the understanding of this blog.  There are many other important facts in the glossary.
• GLOSSARY

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WAVE COUNT

The following shows my interpretation of the wave count over the last 40 years.  The chart number refers to the chart placement on the first page of MY CHARTS.

SUPER LONG TERM IS UP, (1974 to Present)
Chart Number 10.9, Dark Green Wave Count

Super Step #I Up = 1974 To 1976
Super Step #II Up = 1978 To 1981
Super Step #III Up = 1982 To 2000 – (Conventional peak)
Super Step #IV Up = 2003 To 2007 (wave extension)
Super Step #V Up = 2009 To present (wave extension)

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VERY LONG TERM IS DOWN, (2000 to Present)
Chart Number 10.9, Red Wave Count

Very Large Step #1 Down = 01/00 To 10/02
Very Large Step #2 Down = 10/07 To 03/09

Very Large Step #3 Down will be the longest and largest of the 3 steps, possibly ending in 2018.  For now we will enjoy the bull market, which will make new highs.  We won’t worry about Very Large Step #3 Down until it actually threatens us.

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LONG TERM IS UP, (03/09 to Present)
Chart Number 10.8, Black Wave Count

Large Step #1 Up = 03/09 To 05/10
Large Step #2 Up = 07/10 To 05/11
Large Step #3 Up = 10/11 To Present

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INTERMEDIATE TERM IS UP, 10/04/11 to Present
Chart Number 10.6, Blue Wave Count

Intermediate Step #1 Up = 10/04/11 To 10/27/11
Intermediate Step #2 Up = 11/25/11 To PRESENT

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SHORT TERM IS UP
Chart Number 10.4 , Black Wave Count

Short Step #1 Up = 11/25/11 To 12/06/11
Short Step #2 Up = 12/19/11 To PRESENT
Short Step #3 Up = NA

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VERY SHORT TERM
Chart Number 10.4, Red Wave Count

Very Short Step #1 Up = 03/06/12 To 03/19/12
Very Short Step #2 Up = 03/22/12 To 03/27/12
Very Short Step #3 Up = 03/29/12 To 04/02/12

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VERY LONG TERM COMMENTS

We have 3 possibilities for the future.

• We have entered a very wide swinging market (megaphone formation) similar to that of 1965 to 1974. During that era we had three bear markets with two intervening bull market rallies.  Each bear market had a lower low than the previous bear.  The intervening bull market rallies saw new all time highs before the next bear market began.
• We also have formed a huge head and shoulders formation since 1998.  If this formation is valid, the downside measurement calls for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1,000.
• We began a long term bull market in March 2009.

• I favor the megaphone formation as the most likely scenario.

Since 2000 we have had two bear markets, 2000 to 2003 and 2007 to 2009. Like 1966 to 1974, the recovery from the first  bear market saw a new all time high (2007 peak). It’s possible that we may experience another all time high during the present recovery period.  This would support the megaphone formation.  A failure to make new highs would support the head and shoulders argument.  In both formations the conclusion of the present recovery would call for a third and final bear market. An estimated time for the conclusion of the final bear market is approximately 2018.

The lesser downside target of both formations is the megaphone formation as it likely calls for a bottom 1,000 to 2,000 points below the 2009 low, which would be around Dow 5,000.

In the head and shoulders formation the measurement calls for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1,000.  This is almost an unimaginable event regarding the possible fundamentals to create this scenario.  If this did happen, everything that could go wrong would have to go wrong.  This scenario is so dark that it doesn’t seem possible but nevertheless, the head and shoulders formation is there and will be waiting until we pierce the all-time highs of October 2007.

Remember these are simply possible scenarios and are not embedded in fact.  Whatever the outcome, it never hurts to be a little cautious with some of your money.  But in the worst case scenario, everything that we take for granted as being safe . . . .  would not be safe.  This is something to never forget in the event things go very badly.

In these days of government manipulated economies, the FED and the government would fight with everything they have in their arsenal to stop a worse case scenario.  Only after there are no bullets left in their guns will the worst case come to pass.  This lumbering monster, which is our economy will take forever before the worst case arrives.

Very long term thinking is almost not practical for investment strategies.  In most cases, following the long term strategy should be adequate. 

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EDSON GOULD

• Edson Gould, Premier Stock Market Strategist – Edson Gould had a profound influence on the development of my techniques and  indicators.  Prior to me subscribing to his advisory service, I was just one of the crowd.
• After 40 years I still have many of the publications from his advisory service, “Findings & Forecasts”.  Fearing the loss of these hard copy reports I have recently scanned and created pdf files of these reports.
• One of the prime indicators that I use (series #1) was mentioned by Gould only once in his market letters.  If you didn’t catch its importance, too bad, because he only gave you a peek.  I believe that he used this tool extensively and never told the world it’s importance.  Prior to Gould writing about this indicator I had been looking for one that had similar characteristics without success.  Thus when Gould wrote about it, I recognized instantly that I had struck gold.  I have modified this indicator and researched it back to 1939 for the Industrials, Transportations and Utilities .  This was a lot of work as it was before computers and online data (remember when Barrons was available only on paper, still is for the distant past).
• Edson Gould was truly a legend in his own time.  It’s too bad that today many people have forgotten or never heard of him or his discoveries.  This is a man that deserves to be remembered throughout technical analysis market history.  Below you will find the first page of some of his reports.

• My Most Important Discovery by Edson Gould
• It was also my most important discovery, for it explained the irrational volatility of markets that had mystified me in my early years.  During those early years I found nothing worked in predicting these irrational market swings.  But the fog lifted after reading this report and I began to understand how to begin predicting the market.  The book “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” is very useful in explaining crowd behavior.  This book can be downloaded for free in pdf format from Google Books “Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”

• Edson Gould Profile by MTA
• Edson Gould Concepts by William Scheinman

• Decade Cycle by Edson Gould
• Decade Cycle Update by Ned Davis

• Swing Principle by Edson Gould  – A measuring indicator
• Utilities by Edson Gould – A forecasting indicator
• Dividends by Edson Gould
• Bonds by Edson Gould
• Speed Lines by Edson Gould
• Sentimeter by Edson Gould
• With companies failing to pay dividends commensurate with their earnings, this indicator has failed.  As the market deteriorate in the coming years, I would expect dividends to return to their former levels and this indicator will once again become useful.  Prior to the late 1990s, it had 100 years of success.
• Bottoms by Edson Gould
• This was written and directed at the upcoming bottom in 1974 but it applies to all major bottoms.
• Three Steps by Edson Gould
• Edson Gould’s 1974 Forecast
• Gould’s 1974 forecast kept me bearish and short throughout 1974 until the week before Christmas 1974, during which I began making long term purchases.  After that it was ride the bull phases that transpired from 1975 to 1982.  1982 to 2000 was the greatest bull market of all time.
• Edson Gould’s 1975 Forecast
• Edson Gould’s 1976 Forecast
• Edson Gould’s 1977 Forecast
• Edson Gould’s Five Year Forecast 1977 to 1982
• This was a remarkable forecast in 1977, where the Dow Industrials had never been higher than 1,000. NO ONE had predicted a rise of this magnitude in 1977.  Most were waiting for a resumption of the bear market.
• Sign Of The Bull by Edson Gould

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TRANSACTION SIGNALS

• All actionable signals are only for short term time frames.  These signals are not designed for intermediate or long term time frames BUT . . . . .

• After a short term buy signal, long term tax status  can be achieved by a continuation of the upward trend, which causes short term actions to morph into long term holdings. 
  

• See more details in the GLOSSARY under “Taxes, Futures Contracts” and “Money Management”.

TRANSACTION RECORD

• In this blog a warning of an impending bottom (or top) is often issued well in advance of the formal buy or sell date.  This allows thoughtful consideration prior to a formal action signal.  To get a sense of how this works, you should read the days prior to a formal buy/sell signal.  I often buy/sell in my personal account based on the early warnings.
• The transaction record near stock market bottoms will show that I am very skittish and usually remain so until the new direction is well underway.

• BUY – APRIL 26, 2012
• SELL – APRIL 3, 2012
• STOP BUYING – FEBRUARY 6, 2012
  QUALIFIED BUY – DECEMBER 15, 2011
• QUALIFIED BUY – DECEMBER 12, 2011
  
• QUALIFIED BUY – DECEMBER 5, 2011
  

• ACKNOWLEDGED BOTTOM – OCTOBER 16, 2011
• PREVIEW TO A BUY SIGNAL – OCTOBER 2, 2011
  
• BLOG SUSPENDED ON 9/27/11

• This blog was suspended the first time on 9/17/11 due to a death accompanied by a family illness. It was suspended a second and longer time on 9/27/11 due to an extremely serious family illness.  Blog resumption with comments and charts began again on 11/27/11. Unfortunately due to illness I clearly missed issuing a formal & important buy signal closer to the 10/4/11 bottom.  Hopefully this error will not be repeated.
  

• SELL – SEPTEMBER 9, 2011
  
• BUY – AUGUST 30, 2011
• SELL – AUGUST 30, 2011 – Stopped out, re-bought quickly
  
• BUY – AUGUST 29, 2011
• SELL – AUGUST 25, 2011
• BUY – AUGUST 23, 2011
• SELL – AUGUST 1, 2011
• BUY – JUNE 23, 2011

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