04/18/12 – Last Post For A Few Days © ™
- WHAT’S HAPPENING?
The overall trend in the market is down for the next several weeks/months. That will remain my view until otherwise stated in the category “SELL/BUY ACTION UPDATE”. Overall downtrend doesn’t preclude the possibility of a good rally.
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Since I’m going to be busy, this will likely be my last post for a few days.
Today’s rally carried the Nasdaq Composite back to the 50% retracement point (see earlier post for chart). To date the rally hasn’t been enough to break the “look” of the downtrend and if that continues, I would interpret that as a significant negative.
The market is no longer oversold but is at best neutral. Neutral allows room for more rally but that isn’t a reason in itself to rally.
The market rally has some problems as many of the indexes haven’t participated. Many peaked on April 12th and have formed a lower high as of today. Higher or lower highs is split 50-50 on the 10 indexes that I watch. I think that we could muddle around awhile longer before a real breakdown occurs.
I didn’t seem to point out anything positive in this update so I’ll say that I think its “possible” (didn’t say it was going to happen) that we could rally back to the prior high on April 2nd. An upside failure should take place at that time (no meaningful new high). We have price projections to about 1407 in the SPX. Overall I’m not a bull and any long position that I have has my finger resting on the trigger.
The chart below shows the June SP 500 futures since April 8. As you can see we have a small double top (today and April 12). It probably isn’t meaningful but we’ll watch it to be sure.
04-18-12 June SP 500 Futures !5 Minute Bars
MY CHARTS This is the link to my charts on StockCharts. Vote below and tell me how I should arrange the charts on page 1.
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Stock-Market-Observations 
April 19, 2012 at 12:55 PM
After the almost 200 Dow point rally, there was ample reason to take profits and when the downside didn’t have a nice orderly containment, I was gone. Stops work nicely when you’re busy.
It looks like 2 steps up since April 10, so we might get another rally (if I didn’t miscount).
CORRECTION: I see 3 steps up. Third step was earlier today (Thurday) before the market opened.
As I’ve said, I’m principally a bear for now and hit and run on the upside is best until things are clearer.
I keep wondering when TXX is going to take a breather (like other stocks did). Another new low today (Thursday) for TXX. If we get the 3rd step rally, maybe TXX will participate at that time. Seems like a reasonable possibility, but we have to get the 3rd step rally and sometimes that doesn’t happen. (SEE CORRECTION ABOVE)
Bob
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April 19, 2012 at 12:16 PM
Still holding longs Bob?
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April 17, 2012 at 11:14 PM
Thanks Bob another good call.
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