12/18/13 – Sequoia Fund Is Closed
12/18/13 . . . by Bob Karrow
——————————– SECTION ONE ——————————–
WAVE COUNTS
- If you aren’t familiar with my unorthodox wave counting method, there is a simple explanation (KISS) at the beginning of the glossary. The glossary also contains ideas and details that don’t appear in the blog.
CHARTS
- Pages 1 and 2 – are of the same indexes (groups #1 through #5). These charts consist of monthly, weekly and daily charts. The monthly charts have a wave count beginning with the bear market bottom of 1974 through the present. Each set of succeeding charts consists of smaller time frames. The sets range from a 33 year view to 1.5 years.
- Page 3 – are charts of my key indicators.
- Pages 4 and 5 – are charts of 10 different market sectors. Page 4 are daily charts and page 5 are weekly charts. Each sector chart shows the following key indicators.
- Price chart
- Cumulative line of advances minus declines
- Cumulative line of up volume minus down volume
- New highs minus new lows
- Pages 6 through 8 – are various indicators. Don’t let these indicators confuse you. They simply are an indication of the general health of the market. Watch for a divergence between the indicators and prices. Some indicators consist of oscillators where you watch for extreme overbought or oversold conditions.
- Some of these indicators have the ability to predict future market action. The interesting indicators have an * in the title bar.
TWEETS
- My tweets are frequent and my blog updates are infrequent.
- Tweets are very short and may contain a link to a chart that will explain my point.
——————————– SECTION TWO ——————————–
I wrote about Sequoia fund on December 5th. It closed to new investors on December 9th.
I knew the close was coming, but I didn’t realize it was so near. Successful funds usually limit their size because it becomes difficult to invest huge amounts of money (many, many billions).
If I had written about Sequoia when I first became aware of it (mid-November), it would have given readers more time to digest the info and possibly open an account.
I wasn’t aware that Sequoia was already closed until a reader notified me that it was closed and she was unable to open an account. Sorry about that.
I am hopeful that an excellent buying opportunity will occur sometime in 2014. That would be the time to add cash to your Sequoia account (if you had acted quickly and opened an account).
The Sequoia news release follows:
December 9, 2013
To our Sequoia Shareholders:
Effective immediately, we are adopting a harder close for Sequoia. The Fund will be closed to new investors, except for new accounts opened with us directly by existing shareholders of the Fund or existing clients of our firm, or members of their families. The Fund will remain open to contributions from existing shareholders, though we reserve the right to reject any order to purchase Fund shares.
This change will make Sequoia consistent with the separately managed portfolios under our management, where we stopped opening accounts for new clients earlier this year. The objective of this change is to restrict the inflow of funds under our management. As the funds we manage grow, incremental investments must become larger if they are to generate meaningful returns. We believe there is some truth to the adage ‘size is the enemy of performance,’ and would like to maintain our ability to make investments in mid-sized companies that can provide meaningful returns to our shareholders.
The predominant source of the growth in funds under our management in the last five years has derived from appreciation of the price of the equities in the portfolio. Clearly, we’d be pleased if good investment performance continued to drive growth in assets. We seek to curtail growth in assets coming from new investors.
We appreciate the confidence that all of our investors have shown us over many years and we hope that this measure will in small part repay that confidence.
Sincerely,
Richard T. Cunniff
Vice Chairman
Robert D. Goldfarb
President
David M. Poppe
Executive Vice President
——————————– SECTION THREE ——————————–
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- ES is SP 500 futures
- YM is DJ Industrial futures
- NQ is NASDAQ Composite futures
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Stock-Market-Observations 
December 18, 2013 at 9:36 PM
Hi Bob
Thanks
I agree ….. one more step up ….March 2014
regards
Bob Collett
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December 18, 2013 at 10:34 AM
Hi Bob,
I am definitely NOT an expert on T-Theory. I play around with T-Theory, but I’m definitely not an expert. I was always content to let Terry do all the hard work. I had followed Terry since 1974.
I put most of Terry’s old lessons on my blog site to help insure that they wouldn’t be lost. His lessons are in two places now instead of one. Hopefully they’ll remain in place for many many years to come.
If you look at “My Charts” (see blog for link), the chart labeled “30.8 – NYSE WEEKLY VOLUME OSCILLATOR . . . . 10 YEARS . . . . TERRY LAUNDRY’S WEEKLY T OSCILLATOR” has some interesting long range Ts. This chart is on page 3. The part of this chart that I’m pointing out to you is the T marked in green. It shows a “possibility” that a major T for this bull market may have just ended. I was fascinated how this T worked out. This is a very long term chart and the Ts are very crude due to the weekly data used. It just puts you in the “neighborhood” of where a T might end.
From a wave count standpoint, some indexes look complete, while others look like they could have one more step up before ending step 3 that began in late 2012. In other words, it’s a little fuzzy. I tend towards the thought that the top is not quite finished.
Bob
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December 18, 2013 at 5:59 AM
Hi Bob
I was reading on Solar Cycles that the end is at hand and the S & P could fall to 400. You are an expert in T Theory.Where does T Theory show a top or is that no how it works ?
regards
Bob Collett
PS Better still apply it to the South African All Share Index. I guess thats pushing my luck.
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