December 2004 – T Theory® Update
December 17 2004 Comments
The S&P remains stuck in an overbought condition at the upper envelope of the 39-Week Adaptive Channel. It is likely that a pullback to the 55 day Moving Average will occur before any decent low can be expected.
Currently the 55 day MA is at 1162 and it has been rising a few points each week. This makes the critical level for the shorter term adaptive channels somewhat of a moving target. When the market drops into the 55 Day low, I will post a chart update.
As noted in my prior update I am working on ta daily bases Advance-Decline Ts that are most useful for developing a T Theory 2 to 4 year investment perspective. They are historically accurate and reliable, beginning with the just posted 1930’s example.
The important conclusion for now is that the current bull market is not projected to peak until early 2007. This has bullish implications for the next 2 years and is probably an unexpected conclusion for many, including me.
If you can follow the basic time symmetry in the 1930’s example, let me just summarize the current T construction. The prior peak in the Advance Decline Ratio (point A in the chart) occurred in April 1998. The first of the double bottoms (point B in the chart) occurred in October 2002, as most stocks were beginning to bottom.
The beginning of the advance (point C in the diagram) occurred in March 2003. The use of a double bottom scenario greatly improves the projection of the final market peak at point D. If you make the time calculations an early 2007 peak is expected.
I will provide the current chart here by year end. Then I will monitor its performance on a regular basis . Terry Laundry
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Many thanks to Paula Burke for her permission to re-post Terry’s old T Theory® explanations. The period re-blogged on these pages are some of Terry Laundry’s best work and was published here from public domain.
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I claim no credit for the material found under T Theory® on this blog. All of this material is the creation of Terry Laundry and was downloaded from Terry’s free blog site (TypePad). I have created a mirror of Terry’s original material and now there is a second site containing Terry’s T Theory®. One or both of these websites hopefully will survive through time as Terry’s material is too important to be lost to the ravages of time. This site is simply a memorial to his lifetime work.
The page content re-blogged here is exactly as Terry created on his original webpages (saved on my computer with ScrapBook)). Nothing has been left out from the period Dec 2003 to June 2011. From Terry’s site, I made a lot of formatting changes, creating a more easily readable webpage appearance. The PDF chart duplicates of the JPEGs have been omitted for ease and speed of recreating Terry’s pages. References to PDF charts should be ignored (but no chart was left out).
After June 2011, Terry created a paid subscription website. None of that material is found here.
There were many many, many hours spent on this project; downloading Terry’s individual charts & audio files, followed by the uploading of Terry’s charts and audio to my WordPress blog library, after which I had to insert the uploaded material into my new T Theory® webpages (hopefully in the correct places). This was a dull and arduous project and I hope you enjoy it. I don’t believe there remains any more of Terry’s material in free domain, so my T Theory® project is probably finished. If I’ve missed something, you can leave me a comment.
If you find an uploaded reference error (chart or audio in the wrong place), please note the month and year of the webpage, plus the exact name of the referenced error file. Include any other info that will help me locate the problem file and where it occurs on the webpage. Leave a comment for me with the info and I’ll fix it.
Terry’s material is very long and will take many weeks for you to finish. Don’t hurry, it’s not a marathon and you will absorb more if you go through it at a reasonable rate. This is especially true for those who don’t invest in the T Theory® reference encyclopedia. The encyclopedia is a written reference for T Theory® and includes everything of importance for Terry’s T Theory®. Without the reference encyclopedia you must depend on your memory and Terry’s method carries some rules that you could easily violate. The encyclopedia also includes new information never seen on his website.
You are welcome to save any or all of my blog material to your computer. You also have my permission to re-blog my information, but you must (1) credit me and my blog in an obvious manner and (2) don’t change my material.
FYI – I find the best way to save a webpage is using “ScrapBook” (it’s an add-on for the FireFox browser). ScrapBook saves a webpage to your computer EXACTLY as it appears on the day you saved it. You can’t tell the difference between the internet webpage and your ScrapBook saved webpage. The saved pages are not pictures. Instead the pages consist of HTML and page functionality remains identical on your computer. There is also a second method for using ScrapBook, where you can save all of the webpages down to a defined link depth. This optional method means all links will function on your computer to the link depth specified (meaning you can click on links on your saved webpages and tunnel down into pages within pages). Saving the normal way will only save the top webpage but the links that exist could continue to function by taking you to the website on the internet instead of on your computer. But sometimes the linked website doesn’t exist anymore. I’ve had this happen on some very good webpages with unique information (they just disappear into the internet void). That’s a bummer when you lost some really good info and thus rose my need for ScrapBook. You can also filter the pages saved using the optional ScrapBook method, which can exclude all pages not coming directly from the specified website (filtering is recommended using this method otherwise you wind up with a LOT of useless stuff).
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