August 2009 – T Theory® Update

 Special Update Sept 2 2009

Listen to the audio here  

Download TTO20090902

Update for Sunday August 30 2009

If the audio server becomes overloaded and rejects your request just come back in an hour or so. Jeffery Young has provided a PDF of his A-D Ts

Download Advance_Decline T

advance_decline-t-drawing

Drawing and comments ” Take a look at the different T’s I drew (attachment) using different center post dates for the A/D line. Quite a few of them come out but the interesting T is the green one that would mature on Sept 14th which is within a day or two of the maturity of the mystery volume oscillator T. I could be wrong but it is likely more than just coincidence. The Chinese market may also be tracing what might happen here with the recent high (our September high) and the steep drop and then moving to a new high a month or so later (our maturing of the October T). Just some thoughts and possible outcomes. I would not be surprised if the China A/D line had similar T’s since they printed earlier than ours and became leading examples due to the strength of their economy.”  Jeffrey Young         jeffreyisyoung@yahoo.com

Daily Chart with Ts Download SRT20090818wts

srt20090818wts

Terry’s Audio Commentary of the T Theory Forecast:

Download TTO20090830commentary

Terry’s Questions and Answers for the week

Download TTO20090830Q&A

Comment I am writing you today because I began my own blog, and I use an loose version of your T-theory. I reference you when I use it, but I realized that you may not want someone else posting blogs using your method. I will include some links of how I used them. If you have a problem with this, let me know, and I will remove the posts. Also, for your information, I use Ts when day trading. I create intra-day Ts based on on balance volume. I find they work very well 65-75% of the time. They can range from a few hours to 50 minutes.

Thank you,

George

Update for Saturday August 29 2009 
This weekend I am providing an update that includes the popular request for calculation assistance for the volume oscillator which follows below. The starting point is the chart data so that link comes first. The procedure may yet have some bugs, send corrections to my email address. To be continued Sunday

Download SRT090828

srt090828

Calculation of the T Theory Daily Volume Oscillator

To calculate the progression of the blue Volume Oscillator as depicted in my daily chart above you  need to recalculate the  18 day and 36 day Volume oscillator values  that are noted in the chart for each successive day beyond this chart’s history.  The formulas used are very simple because they are based on exponential moving averages and use recursive equations that are easy to implement in any spreadsheet software package.  Click on the chart PDF image for a  view of the daily August 28 2009 volume oscillator indicators at the top of the chart.

I am providing  these examples of daily calculations  in the daily chart which you can use to check your own calculations or restart the process. I won’t have time to answer specific questions but of course I will make any corrections and listen to suggestions on improvements.  If you have an arithmetic problem, it should be easy to find someone that understand the simple math involved.  Using a simple spreadsheet is best; it is easy to set up, fast to use, and makes the arithmetic  error free.

Super trader Marty  Schwartz who used this oscillator for some decades claims that one is better prepared to use the day to day pattern for finding bottoms or  tops if you plot the oscillator values by hand on real graph paper. Watching the pattern for tops and bottoms evolve from one day to the next gives one better perspective  on how this volume oscillator tends to anticipate changes in price trends.  The computer generated chart is helpful, but he claims the day to day plot helps to get the better feel for it’s leading characteristics.

Each day after the market close you will need to obtain the net on balance  volume data for the NY Exchange. This can be obtained anywhere but is conveniently available on the web in a market summary section. The data is almost always in a Market Diaries section. See this recommended page

Markets Diary: Closing Snapshot – Markets Data Center – WSJ.com

Be sure you  find the number of millions of share traded on the advancing stocks (called the Up volume) and  the number of millions of share traded on the Declining stocks ( called the Down Volume) . These numbers will typically run in the range of 300 to 1200. The Up Volume minus the Down Volume = the net volume for the day (in millions of shares) is the only day’s number needed to complete the calculation. The number should be positive on an up day, negative on a down day and tends to vary in the range of  plus  900 to minus 900.

But to keep the  final number in a better range  for plotting by hand on graph paper, I take this raw net volume and divide it by 10. So this Reduced Net Volume Change  figure is the value  we actually use in the calculation. When charted the volume oscillator generally falls in the 100 plus or minus range which more convenient for plotting.

The Calculation of the next day’s 18 Day Volume Oscillator  is simply a modification of the prior day’s value of the 18 Day Volume Oscillator using the new day’s Reduced  Net Volume number:

Today’s 18 Day Volume Oscillator = 90% of Yesterdays 18 Day Volume Oscillator +1 times Today’s Reduced Net Volume.

Today’s 36 Day Volume Oscillator = 95% of Yesterday’s 36 Day Volume Oscillator 0.5 times Today’s Reduced Net Volume.

To Illustrate the calculation I will discuss how the next days Volume Oscillator value would be calculated from the  August 28 2009 data in the chart.

For August 28 2009 the chart notes the  18 Day VO= 259.8 and the 36 Day VO= 227.9. The blue Volume Oscillator we really want is always  equal to 18 Day VO -36 Day VO,  that is (259.8-227.9)  = +31.8 according to the chart but should be 31.9 according to readings. The discrepancy is just a round off error in the chart’s  print process.

Monday August 31 saw the Up Volume was 273 million shares, and the Down Volume was = 1094  million shares; the  Net Volume for Monday would be 273-1094= -821 and the Reduced Net Volume  therefore would be plus -82 (-82.1 more precisely but not necessary).

The August 31 18 Day Volume Oscillator is always = 90% of Yesterdays 18 Day Volume Oscillator (259.8) +1 time Todays Net Volume (-84).

So = 259.8 times 0.9 (which is 233.8) + (-82) times 1 (which is -82)= 233.8 + -82 which equals 137 for the 18 Day Volume Oscillator

The August 31 Day Volume Oscillator always  = 95% of Yesterdays 36 Day Volume Oscillator  +0.5 times Todays Net Volume .

So  227.9 times .95 (which is 216.5) + -84 times 0.5 (which is 41) =216.5-41 which equals 175 for the 36 Day Volume Oscillator

So for August 31 this sample calculation, the final  Volume Oscillator calculation would be Today’s 18 Day VO – Todays 36 Day VO, that is  137-175= -37 .

For Sept 1 up volume=90 mill  Down vol =1533   Net =-1443; Net Reduced=-144

18 day vo=136(151 times 0.9)-144= -8;  36 day vo= 166 (175 times 0.95)-72( -144 times 0.5)=94;  VO=  -8-94= -102

will continue these daily calcs  this week here.

Download SRT20090831

srt20090831

Terry Laundry

Update for Wed Aug 26:  

T Theory tutorials are now available at ttheoryfoundation.org  or use link here:  T Theory Foundation

Hint: Let the audio download progress until it is complete before clicking on the play button. If you don’t and have a slow connection the audio may abort. Some features are not yet implemented however you can email questions/comments on the tutorial subject matter to my Foundation Mailbox. More on Sunday

Update for Sunday August 23 2009   Today’s  Topics include; T Theory Tutorial coming this week, a look at the Volume Oscillator S&P chart vs the Advance-Decline Line S&P chart and their relationship, the volume oscillator Mystery T, the need to understand the volume oscillator wave pattern in detail, and my response to most all of the questions received last week. Look over the two daily PDF charts  then listen to my long Audio Commentary.

S&PvsVolOsc TDownload SRvoT20090823

srvot20090823

S&PvsA-D line Download SRadT20090821

sradt20090821

Audio Commentary Download TTO20090823

Quick update for August 18 2009

The reaction should be  finding a bottom here or over the next few days. Watch for turning pattern in the oscillator or the market. Market should see new highs  by early Sept.

Update for Sunday August 16 2009  

Today’s  Topics include; Questions and my Answers (Q&A) to; what happens after Oct, where do I learn about T Theory,  Greg asks “Marty:day trader or T Theory”, what about rally last week, where to get data for volume oscillator, what about Gold, why is Oct peak is in seasonally weak period, Ji comments by Marty in Stock Wizards, etc.

Audio Download TTO20090816

Today’s Chart Download SRT20090814

srt20090814

Audio Correction; it was Greg not Jeff who asked about day trading vs T Theory

For Stock Wizards article go to:

Market Wizards: Interviews with Top … – Google Books

Markets Diary: Closing Snapshot – Markets Data Center – WSJ.com

About Oscillator calculation  from Rick ( It was 12180/1000= 12.1  error is due to data differences-Terry)

Thanks for your help here as I am beating my head against the wall. From the website
http://www.mcoscillator.com/data/osc_data/OSC-DATA.xls
I am taking data from the NYSE UV-DV column as the starting point or should I use the McClellan UV-DV OSc column then divide by 10?
McClellan Volume Oscillator

NYSE10%5%McCMcC VOLUV-DV FORUV-DV FORUV-DVTRENDTRENDUV-DVSUMMATIONOSC UNCH’DOSC TO 0(x 1000)UV-DVUV-DVOSCINDEXTOMORROWTOMORROW

948490 309845 203881 105964 1085132 415809 -1703474
420739 320935 214724 106211 1191343 427145 -1697068
807538 369595 244365 125230 1316573 494825 -2009781
-17631 330872 231265 99607 1416181 430480 -1561670
867914 384576 263097 121479 1537660 506056 -1923528
19721 348091 250928 97162 1634822 445253 -1497996
-738718 239410 201446 37964 1672786 277374 -481904
730227 288492 227885 60607 1733393 349098 -863033
381409 297783 235561 62222 1795615 360006 -884436
-640835 203922 191742 12180 1807795 216102 -27500
Feel like I am close to getting this right and once it is then their will be an updated template for others to use as well.
Rick

Update for Sunday August 9 2009  

Today’s  Topics include; The very short term way of looking at T Theory as per the  comments above;

First we will look at the  Short Term picture using the A-D Line then I will comment on the small T, etc.

Daily A-D Chart Download SRTad20090807

srtad20090807

Audio Commentary Download TTO20090809a

Then  we will take the same history in terms of the volume oscillator and look at it from Marty’s very short term trading perspective, maybe 7 days or so.

Daily Vol Chart Download SRTvo20090807

srtvo20090807-1

Daily Audio Vol Chart Commentary Download TTO20090809b

Finally I will answer the question of when a top to the China market might occur  and why my volume oscillator numbers don’t quite match those of McClellan site noted at the bottom of these charts.

Q and A has been re-recorded due to a mic problem.

Audio Q and A Download TTO20090809c

Send any new questions or comments  to terry.laundry@comcast.net

Update for Sunday August 2 2009   

Today’s  Topics include;

1. Discussion of the small black T in the AD Line chart that calls for a small, short correction next week.
2. A review of my companies July 31 2009 report and introduction to the concept of “benchmarking”.
See the  daily Indicator PDF chart below then listen to the audio commentary that follows:
Short Range Indication Chart Download SRT20090731
srt20090731
AudioCommentary Short Term Download TTO20090802
Then read my one page report to clients that  begins to talk about strategies and other concepts to maximize the  longer term A-D Line Ts  rate of return for investments and the Audio Commentary that follows.
ASIC Report Download 2009.07 Report.web
2009.07-report.web

AudioCommentary ASIC Report Download TTO20090802b

****************************************************************************************

All Rights Reserved By The T Theory® Foundation ©

Order the T Theory® Encyclopedia

For a complete understanding of the T Theory® and how to successfully use Terry’s unique methods, order the Encyclopedia from Paula at the above link.  There is additional material in the encyclopedia not covered here.  Paula will be more than happy to answer your questions too.

Many thanks to Paula Burke for her permission to re-post Terry’s old T Theory® explanations.  The period re-blogged on these pages are some of Terry Laundry’s best work and was published here from public domain.

****************************************************************************************

I claim no credit for the material found under T Theory® on this blog.  All of this material is the creation of Terry Laundry and was downloaded from Terry’s free blog site (TypePad).  I have created a mirror of Terry’s original material and now there is a second site containing Terry’s T Theory®.  One or both of these websites hopefully will survive through time as Terry’s material is too important to be lost to the ravages of time.  This site is simply a memorial to his lifetime work.

The page content re-blogged here is exactly as Terry created on his original webpages (saved on my computer with ScrapBook)).  Nothing has been left out from the period Dec 2003 to June 2011.  From Terry’s site, I made a lot of formatting changes, creating a more easily readable webpage appearance.  The PDF chart duplicates of the JPEGs have been omitted for ease and speed of recreating Terry’s pages.  References to PDF charts should be ignored (but no chart was left out).

After June 2011, Terry created a paid subscription website. None of that material is found here.

There were many many, many hours spent on this project; downloading Terry’s individual charts & audio files, followed by the uploading of Terry’s charts and audio to my WordPress blog library, after which I had to insert the uploaded material into my new T Theory® webpages (hopefully in the correct places).  This was a dull and arduous project and I hope you enjoy it.  I don’t believe there remains any more of Terry’s material in free domain, so my T Theory® project is probably finished.  If I’ve missed something, you can leave me a comment.

If you find an uploaded reference error (chart or audio in the wrong place), please note the month and year of the webpage, plus the exact name of the referenced error file.  Include any other info that will help me locate the problem file and where it occurs on the webpage.  Leave a comment for me with the info and I’ll fix it.

Terry’s material is very long and will take many weeks for you to finish.  Don’t hurry, it’s not a marathon and you will absorb more if you go through it at a reasonable rate.  This is especially true for those who don’t invest in the T Theory® reference encyclopedia.  The encyclopedia is a written reference for T Theory® and includes everything of importance for Terry’s T Theory®.  Without the reference encyclopedia you must depend on your memory and Terry’s method carries some rules that you could easily violate.  The encyclopedia also includes new information never seen on his website.

You are welcome to save any or all of my blog material to your computer.  You also have my permission to re-blog my information, but you must (1) credit me and my blog in an obvious manner and (2) don’t change my material.

FYI – I find the best way to save a webpage is using “ScrapBook” (it’s an add-on for the FireFox browser).  ScrapBook saves a webpage to your computer EXACTLY as it appears on the day you saved it.  You can’t tell the difference between the internet webpage and your ScrapBook saved webpage.  The saved pages are not pictures.  Instead the pages consist of HTML and page functionality remains identical on your computer.   There is also a second method for using ScrapBook, where you can save all of the webpages down to a defined link depth.  This optional method means all links will function on your computer to the link depth specified (meaning you can click on links on your saved webpages and tunnel down into pages within pages).  Saving the normal way will only save the top webpage but the links that exist could continue to  function by taking you to the website on the internet instead of on your computer.  But sometimes the linked website doesn’t exist anymore.  I’ve had this happen on some very good webpages with unique information (they just disappear into the internet void).  That’s a bummer when you lost some really good info and thus rose my need for ScrapBook.  You can also filter the pages saved using the optional ScrapBook method, which can exclude all pages not coming directly from the specified website (filtering is recommended using this method otherwise you wind up with a LOT of useless stuff).

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