August 2006 – T Theory® Update

The New Short Range T is probably Bullish Into Year End

The A-D line is breaking out of its bottom pattern and likely makes the new T Bullish.

The T has has a very long time span into late 2006 so I would expect a steady advance with pullbacks holding the 55 day MA.

However near term the Rate T study is projecting a low August 11 plus or minus, so that time period might hold a clue. I will post after that date with a chart and the new T construction etc.

Gold could also be heading higher into its prior projected HUI Gold Stock T and we can take a look at an updated HUI chart as well.

See the archives for these two topics and their prior projections until then.

Terry Laundry

August Observations and Plans

General postings for the month of August 2006

Aug 28: Posted new Daily Indictor chart and comments at that page in T Theory Graphics.

Aug 24: All four discussion topics are now posted on their individual pages at the T Theory Graphics Blog.
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Aug 21: I have added a new Topic “The Bond T Summary” at the T Theory Graphics site. See link at the left, then check Recent Postings at T Theory Graphics for the Bond link.

Note that each of what will eventually be 4 (or more) separate topics are posted on individually separated pages. When you follow the link you will see only the Topic that discusses the Short Range T picture which was posted a week ago and will be updated next Monday August 28 and thereafter every two weeks, or as necessary. This is my most important topic so it has become the default T Theory Graphics page.

While there, you will see under “Recent Posts” the new page for my Bond T Topic which also contains a few comments on the significance of Gold holding the $600 level and the PDF file showing the updated Bond T plots for Friday Aug 18. It will be updated at least monthly.

Within two weeks, two additional pages will be posted at Theory Graphics and they will be note here. The 3rd page will discuss Nat. Resources, Gold, Oil, etc and their outlook, and the 4th page will deal exclusively withe the A-D line and the key A-D Ts status. These topics will be updated at least monthly.

All four topics are interrelated and I will spend the Monday discussion this aspect whenever making a post.

Each Monday all my time will be devoted to the study of these 4 key topics.

I will make the appropriate changes to these pages by Monday’s market close and I will announce all postings here. Hopefully this will meet the goals set below.

—— Terry Laundry Aug 21

I am now in the process of setting up an August T Theory presentation based on what I researched over the last 8 weeks. I will be adding to this posting as time permits during August. Next posting late Friday Aug 18.

I spent recent weeks focused on publication matters and detailed programing efforts because we are in the late stages of the so called 4 year cycle that has produced key lows at roughly 4 year intervals ever since I became interested in the market back in the early 1970’s. I don’t believe the current environment will support much more than a trading range as occurred in the 4 year cycle that bottomed in late 1986, but as long as the Advance-Decline trends are constructive, as they are now, then the trend can can take the form of a sideways trading range.

The August 11 projected Rate T low appears to have come and gone without any real oversold buying opportunity and I think the market is too overbought to do a lot more on the upside. In any case the current rally will get captured by the next Rate T low scheduled for early November and this is where the normal 4 year cycle bottoms; that is, near the end of the year after tax loss selling is out of the way. I am working on the short range T stuff to refine this and expect to have charts to post later in this week using a new web site format I have worked out and detailed below.

Turning to my research efforts these last few months, I was generally successful in bringing my 1973 publication on T Theory basic principles which was type written by me as a young engineer that had his first glimpse into T Theory. It is now in a computer friendly format and I am close to putting the 130 pages in to a full PDF format file you can download if you wish. Naturally I felt it wise to re-read the material and found a few standouts concepts worth pursuing in the weeks ahead.

The most important finding was the need to treat the bottoming at the center post of any big T with respect for the multiple lows that traditionally mark major turning points near the center post. Most key lows are established by an early momentum low and then later by a retest of that first low. If not considered, this will cause a small misplacement of the T which later will cause wide errors in the target peak date. The study showed how to reduce the errors and its findings needs to be incorporated in my daily charts as my highest priority.

I attempted to program what is essentially a double bottom center criteria but found my old programing environment was obsolete. After wasting a lot of time on that aspect, I have moved to a more capable system, but will be challenged on time to re-learn a new system of programing. Nevertheless this is key to the future, because the double bottom criteria at the center of the Volume Oscillators Ts which I had called an accumulation pattern in my early studies. It is also the basis for the Kemp buy criteria. So in one step I hope to eliminate most of the T projection uncertainties and pick up the important center post low buy criteria. This is under development but is very time consuming. It will start showing up in my new charts in the weeks ahead.

To gain additional insight it will also eventually be necessary for me to use a normalized volume oscillator so oversold conditions will appear more uniform over history. This makes all oversold conditions look similar and eliminates the extra step in the Kemp process of checking for an intermediate low. The level of over-soldness will be easily gauged from a historical perspective and the rising bottoms will be more universally recognized.

However to proceed with all these tasks, as wonderful as they seem to me, I need to streamline this site so I have more time to do the more important research projected needed to advance the State of the Art . In particular I have to eliminate the standard blog format here which puts each post in order and scatters the comments and analysis to the point where I do not have time to do justice to the discussions.

By the end of Wednesday Aug 16 I hope to have the new format ready for the first example. Over the next few weeks, I plan on three topic areas that will be dedicated to the following discussions: First the Daily Indicator Chart for Short Range Ts, Kemp stuff, envelopes, etc; Second a Rate T watch to pick up the new rate Ts not covered in my T Theory Foundation study; and Third the natural resource and gold outlook. Later other discussion areas can be defined as needed.

The next post, which I will announce here, like all the others, will have the following format: It will be fixed in position at the top of the page at my T Theory Graphics site and consist of 4 parts. The first part will be a plain text comments that refers to the PDF file showing the current daily indicator chart. I will probably update this discussion every couple of weeks or as needed. The second part, the chart itself, will only available via PDF view so Acrobat will be the only viewer for the chart. When updated the new Chart will replace the old one etc so pictures don’t accumulate over time.

The third part will be a PDF file of frequently asked questions (FAQ). In it I will place all general questions that need to be answered once, like the oscillator calculation, and it eventually will become the repository for all my other general technical discussions that are now scattered around the site. However it will only deal with general questions relating to the daily indicators. The other topic discussions will address their particular concerns separately. I hope to set up each topic in rough form at one week intervals assuming no problems arise.

The fourth part will be the comments that automatically show up at the end of every discussion. I greatly value thoughtful questions, and understand that I need to answer questions of a general nature, but am limited in my time to address these issues. So to make sure I don’t miss anything important, let me set the procedure for handling this aspect. When I set up the Daily Indicator discussion later this week , please post only questions on this topic and don’t post questions to this Observation blog. I will dispose of discussion comments by the end of the month, then delete all comments for the month to prevent clutter from passing over to the next month.

If your comment or question deserves a full discussion, it will move to the Reply to Comments area and you can find it at the top of the list. If it is of general nature I will respond at the top of the Frequently Asked Questions list. By the end of the month, all comments will be cleared so any important new queries in September won’t be missed. If your question is not answered try to re-phase it in a better more general and relevant form.

Hopefully this will simplify my web activities to the point that I need only spend one morning a week on site matters and can devote my full attention to the new content that is needed to move to a higher level.

Wednesday Aug 16: The new Daily Chart is Posted at the T Theory Graphics page. See link at left.

Next Post Monday Aug 21

Terry Laundry

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All Rights Reserved By The T Theory® Foundation ©

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For a complete understanding of the T Theory® and how to successfully use Terry’s unique methods, order the Encyclopedia from Paula at the above link.  There is additional material in the encyclopedia not covered here.  Paula will be more than happy to answer your questions too.

Many thanks to Paula Burke for her permission to re-post Terry’s old T Theory® explanations.  The period re-blogged on these pages are some of Terry Laundry’s best work and was published here from public domain.

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I claim no credit for the material found under T Theory® on this blog.  All of this material is the creation of Terry Laundry and was downloaded from Terry’s free blog site (TypePad).  I have created a mirror of Terry’s original material and now there is a second site containing Terry’s T Theory®.  One or both of these websites hopefully will survive through time as Terry’s material is too important to be lost to the ravages of time.  This site is simply a memorial to his lifetime work.

The page content re-blogged here is exactly as Terry created on his original webpages (saved on my computer with ScrapBook)).  Nothing has been left out from the period Dec 2003 to June 2011.  From Terry’s site, I made a lot of formatting changes, creating a more easily readable webpage appearance.  The PDF chart duplicates of the JPEGs have been omitted for ease and speed of recreating Terry’s pages.  References to PDF charts should be ignored (but no chart was left out).

After June 2011, Terry created a paid subscription website. None of that material is found here.

There were many many, many hours spent on this project; downloading Terry’s individual charts & audio files, followed by the uploading of Terry’s charts and audio to my WordPress blog library, after which I had to insert the uploaded material into my new T Theory® webpages (hopefully in the correct places).  This was a dull and arduous project and I hope you enjoy it.  I don’t believe there remains any more of Terry’s material in free domain, so my T Theory® project is probably finished.  If I’ve missed something, you can leave me a comment.

If you find an uploaded reference error (chart or audio in the wrong place), please note the month and year of the webpage, plus the exact name of the referenced error file.  Include any other info that will help me locate the problem file and where it occurs on the webpage.  Leave a comment for me with the info and I’ll fix it.

Terry’s material is very long and will take many weeks for you to finish.  Don’t hurry, it’s not a marathon and you will absorb more if you go through it at a reasonable rate.  This is especially true for those who don’t invest in the T Theory® reference encyclopedia.  The encyclopedia is a written reference for T Theory® and includes everything of importance for Terry’s T Theory®.  Without the reference encyclopedia you must depend on your memory and Terry’s method carries some rules that you could easily violate.  The encyclopedia also includes new information never seen on his website.

You are welcome to save any or all of my blog material to your computer.  You also have my permission to re-blog my information, but you must (1) credit me and my blog in an obvious manner and (2) don’t change my material.

FYI – I find the best way to save a webpage is using “ScrapBook” (it’s an add-on for the FireFox browser).  ScrapBook saves a webpage to your computer EXACTLY as it appears on the day you saved it.  You can’t tell the difference between the internet webpage and your ScrapBook saved webpage.  The saved pages are not pictures.  Instead the pages consist of HTML and page functionality remains identical on your computer.   There is also a second method for using ScrapBook, where you can save all of the webpages down to a defined link depth.  This optional method means all links will function on your computer to the link depth specified (meaning you can click on links on your saved webpages and tunnel down into pages within pages).  Saving the normal way will only save the top webpage but the links that exist could continue to  function by taking you to the website on the internet instead of on your computer.  But sometimes the linked website doesn’t exist anymore.  I’ve had this happen on some very good webpages with unique information (they just disappear into the internet void).  That’s a bummer when you lost some really good info and thus rose my need for ScrapBook.  You can also filter the pages saved using the optional ScrapBook method, which can exclude all pages not coming directly from the specified website (filtering is recommended using this method otherwise you wind up with a LOT of useless stuff).

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