Stock-Market-Observations

General postings for the month of August 2006

Aug 28: Posted new Daily Indictor chart and comments at that page in T Theory Graphics.

Aug 24: All four discussion topics are now posted on their individual pages at the T Theory Graphics Blog.
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Aug 21: I have added a new Topic “The Bond T Summary” at the T Theory Graphics site. See link at the left, then check Recent Postings at T Theory Graphics for the Bond link.

Note that each of what will eventually be 4 (or more) separate topics are posted on individually separated pages. When you follow the link you will see only the Topic that discusses the Short Range T picture which was posted a week ago and will be updated next Monday August 28 and thereafter every two weeks, or as necessary. This is my most important topic so it has become the default T Theory Graphics page.

While there, you will see under “Recent Posts” the new page for my Bond T Topic which also contains a few comments on the significance of Gold holding the $600 level and the PDF file showing the updated Bond T plots for Friday Aug 18. It will be updated at least monthly.

Within two weeks, two additional pages will be posted at Theory Graphics and they will be note here. The 3rd page will discuss Nat. Resources, Gold, Oil, etc and their outlook, and the 4th page will deal exclusively withe the A-D line and the key A-D Ts status. These topics will be updated at least monthly.

All four topics are interrelated and I will spend the Monday discussion this aspect whenever making a post.

Each Monday all my time will be devoted to the study of these 4 key topics.

I will make the appropriate changes to these pages by Monday’s market close and I will announce all postings here. Hopefully this will meet the goals set below.

—— Terry Laundry Aug 21

I am now in the process of setting up an August T Theory presentation based on what I researched over the last 8 weeks. I will be adding to this posting as time permits during August. Next posting late Friday Aug 18.

I spent recent weeks focused on publication matters and detailed programing efforts because we are in the late stages of the so called 4 year cycle that has produced key lows at roughly 4 year intervals ever since I became interested in the market back in the early 1970’s. I don’t believe the current environment will support much more than a trading range as occurred in the 4 year cycle that bottomed in late 1986, but as long as the Advance-Decline trends are constructive, as they are now, then the trend can can take the form of a sideways trading range.

The August 11 projected Rate T low appears to have come and gone without any real oversold buying opportunity and I think the market is too overbought to do a lot more on the upside. In any case the current rally will get captured by the next Rate T low scheduled for early November and this is where the normal 4 year cycle bottoms; that is, near the end of the year after tax loss selling is out of the way. I am working on the short range T stuff to refine this and expect to have charts to post later in this week using a new web site format I have worked out and detailed below.

Turning to my research efforts these last few months, I was generally successful in bringing my 1973 publication on T Theory basic principles which was type written by me as a young engineer that had his first glimpse into T Theory. It is now in a computer friendly format and I am close to putting the 130 pages in to a full PDF format file you can download if you wish. Naturally I felt it wise to re-read the material and found a few standouts concepts worth pursuing in the weeks ahead.

The most important finding was the need to treat the bottoming at the center post of any big T with respect for the multiple lows that traditionally mark major turning points near the center post. Most key lows are established by an early momentum low and then later by a retest of that first low. If not considered, this will cause a small misplacement of the T which later will cause wide errors in the target peak date. The study showed how to reduce the errors and its findings needs to be incorporated in my daily charts as my highest priority.

I attempted to program what is essentially a double bottom center criteria but found my old programing environment was obsolete. After wasting a lot of time on that aspect, I have moved to a more capable system, but will be challenged on time to re-learn a new system of programing. Nevertheless this is key to the future, because the double bottom criteria at the center of the Volume Oscillators Ts which I had called an accumulation pattern in my early studies. It is also the basis for the Kemp buy criteria. So in one step I hope to eliminate most of the T projection uncertainties and pick up the important center post low buy criteria. This is under development but is very time consuming. It will start showing up in my new charts in the weeks ahead.

To gain additional insight it will also eventually be necessary for me to use a normalized volume oscillator so oversold conditions will appear more uniform over history. This makes all oversold conditions look similar and eliminates the extra step in the Kemp process of checking for an intermediate low. The level of over-soldness will be easily gauged from a historical perspective and the rising bottoms will be more universally recognized.

However to proceed with all these tasks, as wonderful as they seem to me, I need to streamline this site so I have more time to do the more important research projected needed to advance the State of the Art . In particular I have to eliminate the standard blog format here which puts each post in order and scatters the comments and analysis to the point where I do not have time to do justice to the discussions.

By the end of Wednesday Aug 16 I hope to have the new format ready for the first example. Over the next few weeks, I plan on three topic areas that will be dedicated to the following discussions: First the Daily Indicator Chart for Short Range Ts, Kemp stuff, envelopes, etc; Second a Rate T watch to pick up the new rate Ts not covered in my T Theory Foundation study; and Third the natural resource and gold outlook. Later other discussion areas can be defined as needed.

The next post, which I will announce here, like all the others, will have the following format: It will be fixed in position at the top of the page at my T Theory Graphics site and consist of 4 parts. The first part will be a plain text comments that refers to the PDF file showing the current daily indicator chart. I will probably update this discussion every couple of weeks or as needed. The second part, the chart itself, will only available via PDF view so Acrobat will be the only viewer for the chart. When updated the new Chart will replace the old one etc so pictures don’t accumulate over time.

The third part will be a PDF file of frequently asked questions (FAQ). In it I will place all general questions that need to be answered once, like the oscillator calculation, and it eventually will become the repository for all my other general technical discussions that are now scattered around the site. However it will only deal with general questions relating to the daily indicators. The other topic discussions will address their particular concerns separately. I hope to set up each topic in rough form at one week intervals assuming no problems arise.

The fourth part will be the comments that automatically show up at the end of every discussion. I greatly value thoughtful questions, and understand that I need to answer questions of a general nature, but am limited in my time to address these issues. So to make sure I don’t miss anything important, let me set the procedure for handling this aspect. When I set up the Daily Indicator discussion later this week , please post only questions on this topic and don’t post questions to this Observation blog. I will dispose of discussion comments by the end of the month, then delete all comments for the month to prevent clutter from passing over to the next month.

If your comment or question deserves a full discussion, it will move to the Reply to Comments area and you can find it at the top of the list. If it is of general nature I will respond at the top of the Frequently Asked Questions list. By the end of the month, all comments will be cleared so any important new queries in September won’t be missed. If your question is not answered try to re-phase it in a better more general and relevant form.

Hopefully this will simplify my web activities to the point that I need only spend one morning a week on site matters and can devote my full attention to the new content that is needed to move to a higher level.

Wednesday Aug 16: The new Daily Chart is Posted at the T Theory Graphics page. See link at left.

Next Post Monday Aug 21

Terry Laundry