June 2004 – T Theory® Update
Short Range T Update June 4 2004
This week saw an expected short-term top in the in the blue volume Oscillator in the Updated Daily Chart below. Click on the image for a larger view.
Note the key 55-day MA is running sideways around 1113. If corrections don’t fall more than a few points below this bullish support level then the trend could maintain a bullish bias through the right side of this very long T. If the S&P falls below 1113,then the T will allow a bearish scenario to continue for some months.
The outcome should be clearer in another week but the result may only be a sideways trading range.
Short Range T Update June 11 2004
This week saw another expected short-term top in the in the blue volume Oscillator in the Updated Daily Chart below. Further consolidation is still likely. Nevertheless the prospects are bullish into the new T’s Projected peak in late September.
Click on the image for a larger view.
Short term oscillators usually need to fall to the zero or neutral level in any short term overbought correction and we have not yet seen this occur. A neutral oscillator reading is typically a buying opportunity as the S&P does not necessarily have to drop to the 55 day MA given the high momentum reading in the blue volume oscillator. Note the key support of the 55-day MA is now running around 1117. Terry Laundry
T Theory Update June 18 2004
Not much to report on the progress of the current Short Range T in the daily charts. Click on the Daily chart for larger image.
The blue volume oscillator has pulled back to the zero level which is all that has to happen after a momentum peak but it is difficult to say if the S&P wants to come back to the 55 Day MA at this point or not.
It is likely to do so at some point. However if the MA is rising, as it should be, the normal requirement for successively higher lows on corrections should play out as we have seen in recent history. So maybe the S&P is just going to move steadily higher for a while.
The next chart reviews the 39-week Adaptive Channels. Click on this Weekly chart for larger image.
The great advantage of this presentation of the S&P data is that target’s for the S&P can be made that are fairly distant in time but still historically reliable as long as one understands the three targeted levels are being altered over time by my adaptive equations.
Fortunately you can see the trends and how they are likely to play out so it is pretty simple to make approximate projections then refine the targets as they are approached. A few months ago this concept was used to conclude that a peaking at the upper (red) envelope would normally results in corrections to the mid channel (black) defined by the 39-week MA.
All this has come to pass because the only likely turning points historically are the three tracked at the top of the page. Just as helpful is the observation that the one furthest away or on the wrong side of the trend is the outcome most unlikely to occur. This greatly simplifies guessing the outcome.
So for the current situation where we have seen a successful bounce off the 39-week MA within a rising trend the obvious next turning point should be at the upper envelope bound, currently at 1193 but rising slowly over time. S&P 1193 is therefore the simple upside target for now. Terry Laundry
General Comments for June 25 2004
I am now shifting to a more relaxed summer mode and will keep my comments brief unless I find anything out of the ordinary, that is which deviates from the prior forecast conclusions of a general market uptrend into September and an expected continuation in the long term Gold advance started two years ago.
With regard to equities, the current trend looks OK but will become influenced more by Fed rate action at the end of the month, then as we move into July, the new earning reports. The Short Range extends to September so later on the next quarters earnings and any further rate increases will also influence the Ts trend. All we need to do is see how the trend absorbs the news. If the trend remains up that is all that matters.
With respect to the long term Gold T discussed earlier, there remains the problem of confirmation that technically requires Gold to break above prior resistance around $430/oz. I believe the big new T exists and the outlook is bullish for the long term but until Gold gets above this key level the big T is not confirmed.
There is no particular reason to spend much time on these issues. When the Gold breakout does occur it likely will be too overbought to be of practical use. The same is true for the market. By the time the trend in the new T looks strong it too will be overbought. So I will simply say each looks up and I look forward to confirmation of the T forecast.
In the meantime I am starting to gear up a very long-term 1926 –2004 study of my key Advance-Decline Studies that are one of the best of my long-range concepts. In this era there are a few problems that may relate to the low interest rates. However I have been able to obtain confidential data that may provide a fuller explanation of this long period. During the summer and fall I will reprogram the data and finally present what potentially may be my most important T Theory historical study. Terry Laundry
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Many thanks to Paula Burke for her permission to re-post Terry’s old T Theory® explanations. The period re-blogged on these pages are some of Terry Laundry’s best work and was published here from public domain.
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I claim no credit for the material found under T Theory® on this blog. All of this material is the creation of Terry Laundry and was downloaded from Terry’s free blog site (TypePad). I have created a mirror of Terry’s original material and now there is a second site containing Terry’s T Theory®. One or both of these websites hopefully will survive through time as Terry’s material is too important to be lost to the ravages of time. This site is simply a memorial to his lifetime work.
The page content re-blogged here is exactly as Terry created on his original webpages (saved on my computer with ScrapBook)). Nothing has been left out from the period Dec 2003 to June 2011. From Terry’s site, I made a lot of formatting changes, creating a more easily readable webpage appearance. The PDF chart duplicates of the JPEGs have been omitted for ease and speed of recreating Terry’s pages. References to PDF charts should be ignored (but no chart was left out).
After June 2011, Terry created a paid subscription website. None of that material is found here.
There were many many, many hours spent on this project; downloading Terry’s individual charts & audio files, followed by the uploading of Terry’s charts and audio to my WordPress blog library, after which I had to insert the uploaded material into my new T Theory® webpages (hopefully in the correct places). This was a dull and arduous project and I hope you enjoy it. I don’t believe there remains any more of Terry’s material in free domain, so my T Theory® project is probably finished. If I’ve missed something, you can leave me a comment.
If you find an uploaded reference error (chart or audio in the wrong place), please note the month and year of the webpage, plus the exact name of the referenced error file. Include any other info that will help me locate the problem file and where it occurs on the webpage. Leave a comment for me with the info and I’ll fix it.
Terry’s material is very long and will take many weeks for you to finish. Don’t hurry, it’s not a marathon and you will absorb more if you go through it at a reasonable rate. This is especially true for those who don’t invest in the T Theory® reference encyclopedia. The encyclopedia is a written reference for T Theory® and includes everything of importance for Terry’s T Theory®. Without the reference encyclopedia you must depend on your memory and Terry’s method carries some rules that you could easily violate. The encyclopedia also includes new information never seen on his website.
You are welcome to save any or all of my blog material to your computer. You also have my permission to re-blog my information, but you must (1) credit me and my blog in an obvious manner and (2) don’t change my material.
FYI – I find the best way to save a webpage is using “ScrapBook” (it’s an add-on for the FireFox browser). ScrapBook saves a webpage to your computer EXACTLY as it appears on the day you saved it. You can’t tell the difference between the internet webpage and your ScrapBook saved webpage. The saved pages are not pictures. Instead the pages consist of HTML and page functionality remains identical on your computer. There is also a second method for using ScrapBook, where you can save all of the webpages down to a defined link depth. This optional method means all links will function on your computer to the link depth specified (meaning you can click on links on your saved webpages and tunnel down into pages within pages). Saving the normal way will only save the top webpage but the links that exist could continue to function by taking you to the website on the internet instead of on your computer. But sometimes the linked website doesn’t exist anymore. I’ve had this happen on some very good webpages with unique information (they just disappear into the internet void). That’s a bummer when you lost some really good info and thus rose my need for ScrapBook. You can also filter the pages saved using the optional ScrapBook method, which can exclude all pages not coming directly from the specified website (filtering is recommended using this method otherwise you wind up with a LOT of useless stuff).
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