05/10/12 – Bought and Stopped Out Again © ™

MY CHARTS

BUY/SELL SIGNAL IN FORCE

Bought on Wednesday 5/10/12 at 12 AM EDT
Sold on Wednesday 5/10/12 at 2 AM EDT – stopped out, not short

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LONG TERM – Up (black 3, chart #10.8)

INTERMEDIATE TERM – Up (blue 2, chart #10.6)

SHORT TERM – Down, likely close to a bottom

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WHAT’S HAPPENING

Yesterday I said:

“If the rhythm of the 2 steps down holds, we would have already seen the ultimate low last night/morning.  The current decline in the futures has a 5 count in process and if they don’t violate the prior low, I will likely become a speculative buyer.”

When it was clear that Europe was going up last night, the dollar was declining and commodities were rising, I bought and went to bed.  My stop was too close and was taken out a couple of hours later.  I need something to wake me at night when a stop is triggered.  A phone call would work, is that possible????  Any suggestions???

If the stop hadn’t been taken out during the night I might have liquidated the long position earlier today.

Last night didn’t provide a breakout but that doesn’t mean it can’t happen before Friday’s close.  Yesterday, the market was down for 6 straight days and it’s entitled to a couple of days rally.  The quality of the rally is the question.

As you can tell, I’m feeling around for a bottom much like I did last Summer.  That period was filled with a lot of false starts but the object is to never get hurt while playing for a bottom.  Using the Bressert method, you snatch those profits early when looking for these bottoms.

During last summer there were a lot of blog updates.  I blog frequently when bottoms and tops might be occurring but when the market settles down into a steady rally, I let it lull me to sleep.  Hence no blogs during such periods.  You can almost tell what’s happening by watching the update frequency of my blogs.

I am not a huge bear like Terry (looking below the October lows).  If we got one more rally to new highs, completed the count, I could turn into a bear also.

The dollar could throw a monkey wrench into the one more rally theme.  One note, the dollar doesn’t count well and can be ragged on occasion.  It’s counts are not to be trusted without question.  If the dollar was to rally significantly from this point forward, the market would be in a precarious position and my present position would not be bearish enough.

It appears that the dollar has completed 3 large steps down (4/29 to 5/1) since a January peak.    The question is how important is that bottom and whether there is more decline or rally in its future?  I think FED actions have influenced the dollar strength and I don’t see the FED changing their stance soon. 

It’s all about figuring different scenarios.  I then match the most likely scenario to the count and see if it makes sense.  This is why I have so many different scenarios going at the same time.   Always looking for answers.

Here is a free “real time” SP 500 futures quote and chart.

Go to the advanced chart section and you can have more fun with it.

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5 Comments on “05/10/12 – Bought and Stopped Out Again © ™”

  1. Bob Says:

    I used my iPad Tweeter app and would likely use it again for a late night notification.

    Thanks for the VO verification to both you and Michael.

    Like

  2. crisstoff Says:

    I do Terry’s VO manually and it rose today to -41. same as your chart.

    Keep up the Twitter updates – I have this open all day and find it great for the timely updates. Chris

    Like

  3. focus12345 Says:

    My mistake on the VO I meant up from -59 to- 41.

    Like

  4. Bob Says:

    My StockCharts version of Terry’s VO shows it going up today. Is mine constructed properly (chart #30.8)?

    The black ADX reversed direction on 5/8 and that’s showing an internal rally is under way, feeble as that rally may be.

    I will continue to probe for a bottom until we start making lower lows, crash through the lows or the count on the upside is finished, whichever comes first. The decline that started today bears close scrutiny.

    The dollar is a worrisome factor but I’ve learned to kinda look the other way because sometimes things just work out. Although I’ll stop looking the other way when I get smacked in the face with reality. Losing touch with reality can cost lots of money.

    I reread the Bressert money manangement rules today (at someones suggestion) and I think I need to have an “edited” version ajoining the Bressert rules. I think a more direct less wordy and simplified version is needed.

    Bob

    Like

  5. focus12345 Says:

    Thanks Bob . Terry’s VO dropped today and your 60 minute ADX was declining- black line- I thought the market would have advanced further. Also Treasury’s moved up late in the day. I guess the dollar not moving kept everything in check.

    Like


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