Stock-Market-Observations

• JUST AN IDEA OF WHAT’S HAPPENING?

At this time I’m unwilling to change the official, “The overall trend in the market is down for the next several weeks/months.  That will remain my view until otherwise stated in the category “SELL/BUY ACTION UPDATE” . . . .  BUT . . .

This market looks like it might be sold out.  If this is true, the market could be ready to rally. 

In the chart below, notice the failure to penetrate the Sunday lows either today or late Monday/Tuesday night.  We’ll see how the market reacts to some of the economic reports on Tuesday morning. 

Presently the market is slowly eroding downward and is unwilling to rally (1:30 AM EDT).  It’s either waiting for Europe to open or tomorrow’s economic reports.

04-16-12, June SP500 Futures, 3 Minute Bars

The following chart is the same chart as above only a longer time frame (22 minute bars).  It shows the entire decline since the April 2nd peak.

04-16-12, June SP 500 Futures, 22 Minute Bars

If we hold in this area meaning we don’t break the lows made today (Monday) . . .  THEN I’m willing to buy for a short term fling on the upside.  If we break the lows shown on the above chart, then buying ain’t such a good idea and one should toss this idea in the trash.  So I’m going to take my cue from the market action and act accordingly.

If we do rally beginning tomorrow, we could be (1) looking for a failed rally attempt at a new high, (2) the market wants to trace out a 4th and 5th step up or (3) maybe the market just wants to rally a little bit and then come down in another step down.  As always, we’ll find out for sure later.

Naturally if Europe decides to have a stroke, all bets are off on the rally front.

04-16-12 RUT 2000 DAILY

Earlier I had stated the following:

• FUTURE SCENARIOS

(1) We will have a failed rally attempt at a new high and that will drive the nail into the short term coffin.

(2) We will have a token new high, which could be disregarded under certain circumstances.

(3) We will make a legitimate new high, which means we will have an extension for Very Short Step #4 and #5.  After 5th step up, we would have a significant correction.

(4) We will have a sideways pattern to break the uptrend since November.

MY CHARTS   This is the link to my charts on StockCharts.  Vote below and tell me how I should arrange the charts on page 1.

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This entry was posted on April 16, 2012 at 10:42 PM and is filed under UPDATE. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.