04/11/12 @ 10:45 PM EDT – More Rally ??? © ™


Tonight we appear to be in the process of tracing out a small 3 step decline (5 steps are always possible).  Regardless, if this decline stays well confined, more rally lies ahead.  At some point I will likely execute additional shorts.

Although a rally is likely, I still favor the downside and don’t expect any change in that status for many weeks (months?).

Worse case scenario is that we quickly punch through the channel in the chart I posted on 4/10/12.  That wouldn’t be good and could reflect more problems in Europe (it never ends).

Can’t show you any charts because I have to reinstall Parallels (Windows virtual program) on my computer.  My charting software is Windows only and I’m a mindless Apple clone now.  The re-install should be done tonight.

Did you see the Euro-zone story on 60 Minutes?  See it online if you missed it because it was explained very clearly.  It’s a problem that has been a concern here for quite some time.

In the past I haven’t been a big fan of the one-world economy.  It’s great when we all go up together (boom times) but then we all go down together (big bust).  Before the one-world economy, every country was almost on their own timetable and peaked and bottomed at different times.  This was particularly useful when smoothing the curve on the downside.  Today we don’t have that luxury and it might be unavoidable that the Euro-zone will trash the USA at some future date.  That would likely be my Very Large Step #3 down.

It can blissful to be unaware of the future but it ain’t prudent.

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2 Comments on “04/11/12 @ 10:45 PM EDT – More Rally ??? © ™”

  1. Bob Says:

    No shorts yet.

    Since catching the top is impossible and the price is the same before or after the peak, I favor the backside of the curve instead of the front-side. I am frequently early and must resist the urge to repeat that mistake.

    We have broken the “look” of the April 2nd decline, which is a requirement for ending the step downward. Technology (TXX) looks miserable after being a leader on the way up. It has not broken the “look” of its downtrend.

    As I had said earlier we have different options available.

    (1) We will have a failed rally attempt at a new high and that will drive the nail into the short term coffin.

    (2) We will have a token new high, which could be disregarded under certain circumstances.

    (3) We will make a legitimate new high, which means we will have an extension for Very Short Step #4 and #5 (MY CHARTS)

    (4) We will have a sideways pattern to break the uptrend since November.

    I still favor scenario #1



  2. focus12345 Says:

    Hey Bob whats your take on todays action still think it is a good short?


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