Stock-Market-Observations

• WHAT’S HAPPENING?

Referring to the chart below, the best guess I can make of the wave count since April 2 is that we “may” have completed 4 steps down (red numbers).  It’s really too early to declare an end to the 4th step down and it’s just a guess at the moment (9 PM EDT).

The white numbers are sub-steps inside of step 2 down.  I have drawn a channel for step 2 (purple) and another channel for the overall decline (white).  It’s a rough estimate and further decline could redefine the count and the lines.

The 5th step down could be a bottoming type step close to the area of the 4th step down or another steep decline similar in nature to step 4.  Whichever results, we are probably close to a rally in the market and depending on the wave count, it could begin on Monday or Tuesday.

If we have finished Intermediate Step #2 Up (blue, chart 10.3, MY CHARTS), any significant rally at this point should mark the end of only the first step down, meaning there is more decline to come.  The end of Intermediate Step #2 Up is dependent on a break of the channel formed since November.

Following is a chart of the SP 500 futures from Sunday 04-09-12 at 8 PM EDT.  The period for each bar is 9 minutes.

Click On Chart To Enlarge

11-08-12 SP500 FUTURES 9 MINUTE

SP 500 futures from Sunday 04-09-12 at 8 PM EDT.  The period for each bar is 2 minutes.

There is no labeling on this chart but you can see the small rally that is in progress from the 4th step down.  I’m watching this rally closely for signs that step 4 down is not finished.

11-08-12 SP500 FUTURES 2 MINUTE

• PAST

I declared a short term peak on 04/03/12.  The actual peak date was 04/02/12.  It’s now prudent to be SHORT TERM bearish.

• FUTURE SCENARIOS

(1) We will have a failed rally attempt at a new high and that will drive the nail into the short term coffin.

(2) We will have a token new high, which could be disregarded under certain circumstances.

(3) We will make a legitimate new high, which means we will have an extension for Very Short Step #4 and #5 (MY CHARTS)

(4) We will have a sideways pattern to break the uptrend since November.

Presently I favor scenario #1

• NEW TO THE BLOG?

If you are new to this blog, please read many of the back issues and the Glossary.  You’ll find a lot of useful information in the past issues that will help you understand the present situation.

Any significant change in my opinion will be followed by a daily blog update.

• WAVE COUNT– MY CHARTS

Chart Number 10.3 – Intermediate Step #2 Up (blue) ended on 04/02/12.  This is not the end of the intermediate advance, just a hiccup on the way up.  A renewed buying opportunity will develop after the correction.

Chart Number 10.5 – “OLD” – Very Short Step #3 Up (black) ended on 04/02/12.

The following is my interpretation of the wave counts over the last 40 years.  The latest wave count is at the bottom of the outline.

The chart numbers refer to the chart placement on the first page of MY CHARTS .  Please see these charts for a visual representation of my wave counts.

For an explanation of how my wave count system functions, please refer to my latest weekly blog update.

SUPER LONG TERM IS UP, (1974 to Present)
Chart Number 10.1, Dark Green Wave Count

Super Step #I Up = 1974 To 1976
Super Step #II Up = 1978 To 1981
Super Step #III Up = 1982 To 2000 – – – – (Conventional peak)
Super Step #IV Up = 2003 To 2007 – – – – (wave extension)
Super Step #V Up = 2009 To present – – – (wave extension)

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VERY LONG TERM IS DOWN, (2000 to Present)
Chart Number 10.1, Red Wave Count

Very Large Step #1 Down = 01/00 To 10/02
Very Large Step #2 Down = 10/07 To 03/09

Very Large Step #3 Down will likely be the longest and largest of the 3 steps, possibly ending in 2018.  For now we will enjoy the present bull market, which should still make new highs.  Because we like to sleep nights and make money in the present, we won’t worry about this step #3 down until it “threatens” to arrive.  The end of the bull market that began in March 2009 will be the beginning of the Very Large Step #3 Down.

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LONG TERM IS UP, (03/09 to Present)
Chart Number 10.2, Black Wave Count

Large Step #1 Up = 03/09 To 05/10
Large Step #2 Up = 07/10 To 05/11
Large Step #3 Up = 10/11 To Present

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INTERMEDIATE TERM IS UP, 10/04/11 to Present
Chart Number 10.3, Blue Wave Count

Intermediate Step #1 Up = 10/04/11 To 10/27/11
Intermediate Step #2 Up = 11/25/11 To 04/02/12

Corrections following step 2 are usually longer and deeper than what followed step 1.  Intermediate Step #3 Up should begin at the conclusion of the current correction.

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“OLD” – SHORT TERM UP IS COMPLETE, 11/25/11 to 04/02/12
Chart Number 10.5 , Black Wave Count

Short Step #1 Up = 11/25/11 To 12/06/11
Short Step #2 Up = 12/19/11 To 02/12
Short Step #3 Up = 03/06/12 To 04/02/12

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“OLD” – VERY SHORT TERM IS COMPLETE, 03/06/12 to 04/02/12
Chart Number 10.5, Red Wave Count

Very Short Step #1 Up = 03/06/12 To 03/19/12
Very Short Step #2 Up = 03/22/12 To 03/27/12
Very Short Step #3 Up = 03/29/12 To 04/02/12

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“NEW” – VERY SHORT TERM IS DOWN
Chart Number 10.5, Violet Wave Count

Very Short Step #1 Down = 04/02/12 To Present

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This will probably be the new format for the updates issued on an intra week basis.

Referring to MY CHARTS, I will likely take down the notes on chart 10.0 in the near future.  The charts will remain untouched, only the notations will disappear.  In the future, the wave counts will only appear in my blog.

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This entry was posted on April 8, 2012 at 7:02 PM and is filed under UPDATE. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site.