05/14/12 – Off Line Next Week, Step 3 © ™
INDEXES, INDICATORS & GROWTH STOCKS
CHART LINK – at StockCharts
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BUY/SELL SIGNAL IN FORCE – NEUTRAL
Bought on Thursday 5/11/12 at 2:36 AM EDT
Sold on Friday 5/12/12, not short
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LONG TERM – Up (black 3, chart #10.8)
INTERMEDIATE TERM – Up but Questionable (blue 2, chart #10.6)
SHORT TERM – Down
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BobsWaveCounts – When I don’t blog, I’ll tweet.
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WHAT’S HAPPENING
Just a note that I’m going to be out of the loop for most of next week. I might be available in the evenings and I may post or Tweet but I’m unsure and certainly I won’t say anything if nothing has changed. There is always the possibility that I won’t have access to the internet (horrors).
It’s difficult to judge with certainty what the wave count is doing. I suspect that we never finished 3rd step down (or began it). I think we ended step 2 down and are now beginning step 3 down. Step 3 will likely end on a whimper or a bang. If I were to choose at the moment I would say an ending on a bang. That means there will be a climactic ending to step 3.
With bad luck, step 3 will end while I’m out of the loop. I wouldn’t like that. So I’m rooting for a bottom this week. Jeffrey Saut is looking for a bottom this week. Of course he and I both thought it occurred last week.
I find dramatic and dwindling interest in my blog (and charts), that’s probably a good indication that we are nearing a bottom. Most investors walk away in disgust prior to bottoms. I never walk away because I’m too stubborn and I know how the process works. Presently, I’m like a blind man feeling for the bottom that I dropped. I know it’s there and close by, but I can’t quite put my fingers on it. I’ll find it, I always do.
Of course, there is always the possibility that I’m wrong and Terry Laundry is right. He is a BIG Bear. I don’t even want to think about that because it could kick us into the large step 3 (red, chart #10.9) disaster scenario. I don’t see it (yet). I think there are too many band-aids left in the box to put on the hurt economy. Someday they will run out of band-aids and I will be on the bear side but for now, I have hope.
Don’t forget that the Hurst Cycles are looking for a bottom at ANY MOMENT. It’s a decent length cycle and one that we should see a decent rally.
05-14-12 SP FUTURES 15 MINUTE BARS
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Stock-Market-Observations 
May 15, 2012 at 9:16 AM
I had noticed the timing many weeks ago but wasn’t sure of its validity. It may or may not repeat. Only a breakaway from the top will confirm it.
Why Terry would trot out ECRI at this time is beyond me. That have an excellent record but have calling wolf since last year. There timing for the occurrence of a forthcoming recession has been less than stellar since last year. That doesn’t mean it isn’t going to happen but Terry is grasping at a convenient straw to back up his bear scenario (which may be correct). It’s “almost” like making a bearish call and trotting out Robert Prechter for validation (but not quite as bad). I follow ECRI and I think they are quite good but things haven’t worked right for them recently. I think it may have been the liquidity that the FED provided that screwed them up. Now the FED is finished in the liquidity flow, ECRI “could” get it right. We have to wait and see.
The following was published earlier about ECRI:
“On September 30th, (2011) ECRI publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st. Here is an excerpt from the announcement: Early last week, ECRI notified clients that the U.S. economy is indeed tipping into a new recession. And there’s nothing that policy makers can do to head it off.
ECRI’s recession call isn’t based on just one or two leading indexes, but on dozens of specialized leading indexes, including the U.S. Long Leading Index, which was the first to turn down — before the Arab Spring and Japanese earthquake — to be followed by downturns in the Weekly Leading Index and other shorter-leading indexes. In fact, the most reliable forward-looking indicators are now collectively behaving as they did on the cusp of full-blown recessions, not “soft landings.”
I still am unsure of the direction of the market. We may have finished blue 2, or not. There is a big difference in the following corrections if blue 2 is alive or not.
As I have said previously in my notes on the charts, the next rally will tell us a lot and it should come very soon.
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May 15, 2012 at 2:05 AM
If this plays out like last year- a rally to June- than a deeper correction into to mid June than a rally followed by a collapse sometime in late July. The FAGIX fund shows this scenario. As always time will tell.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAGIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25140507244
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May 15, 2012 at 1:45 AM
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAGIX:VUSTX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44169944952
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May 15, 2012 at 1:44 AM
I think this is why Terry is so bearish same pattern as last year.
http://scharts.co/MfhC5Khttp://scharts.co/MfhC5K
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May 14, 2012 at 1:15 PM
Thanks Bob.
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