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Stock Market Update – 01/22/12 © ™
January 22, 2012 10:41 AM
WHAT’S HAPPENING?
The market is overbought and ripe for a correction . . . BUT when markets are overbought and don’t correct for more than 1-3 days, that’s a sign of an extended move upward.
In the 60 minute chart below you can see since Dec 20th, the market has had very shallow corrections and nothing beyond 3 days. This is a rather narrow channel and probably won’t hold up through time. If the channel widens with a deeper correction that doesn’t exceed 3 days followed by a renewal of the rally, that will be a very good sign for an extended rally.
As we draw nearer to the May 2011 highs, it certainly appears possible that we have entered large step 3 up.
- From the bottom in March 2009
- Large step one up ended in May 2010
- Large step two up ended in May 2011.
If we exceed the May 2011 highs, how the market accomplishes this will be interesting. Will we have a (1) meaningful correction at the May peaks, (2) vacillate in the area of the May peaks, or (3) thrust through the May highs with force. A thrust that continues without a correction exceeding 3 days would be very nice.
Looking at the timing of the previous peaks, does that mean the end of large step 3 will be in May 2012 or possibly May 2013. The stock market tries to always fool you so I wouldn’t put much faith in this but I will certainly be watchful around these dates.
There is a LOT of money on the sidelines and if this money decided to move back into stocks, a melt-up could take place. This could occur when investors realize that interest rates are moving up (bond prices falling). This will force investors to sell bonds and buy stocks. Higher interest rates are not a problem unless the economy begins to overheat. That isn’t a problem presently.
I’m unsure how a melt-up would fit into the Presidential race but the stock market usually figures out the winner before or during the summer months.
As I have proposed since this bull market began in 2009, we had a possibility of exceeding the 2007 all-time highs. This fits perfectly with my very long term megaphone formation beginning in 2000. See “VERY LONG TERM COMMENTS” far down in this update.
01/21/12 – 60 Minute SPX – 5 Day EMA Buy/Sell Signal
No cycles have been posted in this update because nothing has changed. If we continue through January without a correction of consequence, it makes one wonder if the large data-set from 1950 might have the correct bottom, which was indicated in February (see update dated 01/18/11). It’s also possible that we will soon have a vigorous 3 day correction followed by more rally. This 3 day correction could be all that we will get from the January bottoming cycle. If true, this is a good indication of a market that wants to move higher and should be bought.
I remain in an “overall” uptrend theme as per previous updates.
MECHANICAL BUY/SELL SIGNALS
The following paragraphs are a curiosity and not recommended, but I do find this mechanical trading system interesting. With this system you aren’t allowed to stray away from the trend. The chart is from MY CHARTS, page 1, number 10.4
This is a quote from Robert Colby’s book, “The Encyclopedia Of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition” and taken from my notes on chart number 10.4
EMA is an abbreviation for exponential moving average
“This is the best simple trend-following indicator we tested against daily DJIA data. Substituting 5-days for 120-days in the same formula (above), and starting with $100 and reinvesting profits, total net profits for this 5-day EMA Crossover Strategy would have been $16 billion, assuming a fully invested strategy, reinvestment of profits, no transactions costs and no taxes. This would have been 78 million percent better than buy-and-hold. Short selling would have been profitable.” .
In the chart above I have modified the 5 day into a 35 hour EMA. This was due to volatility issues (gaps) that occur in today’s markets. Trading the SP futures (nearly 24 hours/day) can minimize gaps but not completely (who want’s to trade 24 hours per day). To avoid sleepless nights, there are trading algorithms available with some brokerages that can execute this trade automatically.
This system simply states that when the market is above the 35 hour EMA, the market is a buy, below it is a sell.
When the trend is obvious and you decide to stay with the trend (trend is your friend, blah blah blah), you may have to ignore ‘small’ penetrations of the 35 hour EMA otherwise you must trade all of the penetrations. The above chart has many good illustrations of this problem since Dec 20th. The trend is up but it has several small penetrations of the 35 hour EMA. Following this system means a lot of trades on ‘small corrections’. But since online brokerage fees are so low, cost is not a matter of consequence. If you decide to live with small penetrations, you MUST establish a maximum percentage penetration in order to not be caught in a trend reversal. This is important because the entire purpose of this indicator is for you to remain on the correct side of the 5 day trend.
We all know that you can encounter a lot of whipsaws in a non-trending market. This is where the ADX lines can be helpful (see above chart). An ADX signal occurs: (1) When the black line is above or below the red/green horizontal lines coupled with an extreme in the green +DI or red -DI lines; (2) When the green +DI or red -DI lines approach or cross the red or green extreme lines, you ‘may’ have a signal. (approach of similar color lines is bullish, red on red, green on green; approach of dissimilar color lines is bearish, red on green, green on red; (3) In both 1 and 2 you must wait for the reversal in +DI or -DI lines to verify the new trend.
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CHARTS
- These are my personal charts and my playground for doodling trend lines, wave counts and other ideas.
- I draw the trend lines and wave counts on a daily basis (sometimes more often). You can find these doodles from 1 minute to monthly charts.
- You will find the best trend lines and wave counts on charts with longer time frames. This gives perspective to the lines and counts. Perspective was a favorite of Edson Gould.
- I usually restrict my trend lines and wave counts to the first three charts on each page, TSX, DJI & COMPQ. The other charts on the page are usually for confirmation of the trend and wave structure.
- Page 1 – Buy/Sell Signals
- Page 2 – Indexes With 1 Minute Bars
- Page 3 – Indexes With 5 Minute Bars
- Page 4 – Indexes With 15 Minute Bars
- Page 5 – Indexes With 30 Minute Bars
- Page 6 – Indexes With 60 Minute Bars
- Page 7 – Indexes With Daily Bars
- Page 8 – Indexes With Weekly Bars (since 1981)
- Page 9 – Indexes With Monthly Bars (since 1981)
- Page 10 – Indexes With 60 Minute Bars, Candlestick
- Page 11 – Indexes With Daily Bars, Candlesticks
- Page 12 – Indexes With Weekly Bars, Candlestick
- Pages 13 through 14 are shorter term indicators. The indicators are used to simply look for some type of leading action before a turn or confirming action of the wave count. Page 13 is a look-everyday indicator page. The other indicator pages are less frequently visited.
- Page 15 – Hurst FLD Projections
- Page 16 – Indicators, Long Term
- Page 17 – International Indexes
- Page 18 through 30 are sector ETFs. They represent most of the active sector ETFs and are always a good hunting ground when looking for something that is breaking in a new direction.
- Page 31 through 45 are growth stocks with indicators. These are stocks that have been in a lengthy uptrend. One qualification is that they must not be severely damaged in a bear market so they can’t rise to significant new highs in the following bull market.
- The growth stocks show daily market action for the last 3 years and weekly prices since 1992. This gives a good perspective of how they have behaved in the immediate past (daily charts) and how they behaved during good and bad times (weekly charts).
- Page 46 – Misc older charts
WAVE COUNTS SIMPLIFIED
- My wave counts are not Elliott Wave! It’s different, simple and functions without a maze of exclusions.
- There are 3 peaks (or valleys) to a completed wave count. A reversal of trend takes place after a completed wave count. Often times it’s as simple as counting 3 bumps (or dips) on a chart . . . Other times, not so easy.
- In a downtrend the same rules apply except you are counting 3 dips instead of 3 bumps.
- Each group of 3 steps must stay confined to a channel. Laying a pen or pencil on the chart will help you visualize the channel.
- As the trend progresses, all of the steps that make up a larger trend will also be confined to a larger channel. Sometimes the channel is not revealed until the surge phase has ended.
- When the market breaks a channel (regardless of the perceived wave count), the current step has been terminated. (Make sure your channel was correctly drawn before calling a termination).
- The correction following the second step is larger than the correction that followed the first step. Obviously the correction following the third step is a reversal.
- A single wave may sub-divide into another 3 waves. I will call this an extension. When this happens (1) the trend is still intact, (2) the channel will widened and (3) instead of a total of 3 steps, there will be 5 steps.
- Sometimes I will use the terms “step” and “wave” interchangeably.
- Reading the glossary helps in the understanding of this blog. There are many other important facts in the glossary.
- Glossary Link
ABBREVIATIONS
- DJI = Dow Jones Industrials
- DJT = Dow Jones Transportations
- SPX = SP 500
- ES = SP 500 Futures
- COMPQ = Nasdaq Composite Index
- TSX = Toronto Stock Exchange (Canadian blue chips)
- SOX = Semiconductors
- TXX = Technology
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- Long Term – UP
- Uptrend
- Mar 2009 To Present
- Step 2 Up (of 3) Completed
- Step 3 Up Has Possibly Begun
- From the bottom in March 2009
- Large step one up ended in May 2010
- Large step two up ended in May 2011.
- Significant break above the May 2011 highs should signal that Step 3 up is official
12-28-11 LONG TERM
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- Very Long Term – DOWN
- Downtrend
- Jan 2000 To Present
- Step 2 Down (of 3) Completed
- Currently In Rally Phase From Step 2 Down
12-28-11 VERY LONG TERM
VERY LONG TERM COMMENTS
We have 3 possibilities for the future.
- We have entered a very wide swinging market (megaphone formation) similar to that of 1966 to 1974. During that era we had three bear markets with two intervening bull market rallies. Each bear market had a lower low than the previous bear. The intervening bull market rallies saw new all time highs before the next bear market began.
- We also have formed a huge head and shoulders formation since 1998. If this formation is valid, the downside measurement calls for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1,000.
- We began a long term bull market in March 2009. Each subsequent min-bear market will result in higher lows than the prior major low.
- I favor the megaphone formation as the most likely scenario.
Since 2000 we have had two bear markets, 2000 to 2003 and 2007 to 2009. Like 1966 to 1974, the recovery from the first bear market saw a new all time high (2007 peak). It’s possible that we may experience another all time high during the present recovery period. This would support the megaphone formation. A failure to make new highs would support the head and shoulders argument. In both formations the conclusion of the present recovery would call for a third and final bear market. An estimated time for the conclusion of the final bear market is approximately 2018.
The lesser downside target of both formations is the megaphone formation as it likely calls for a bottom 1,000 to 2,000 points below the 2009 low, which would be around Dow 5,000.
In the head and shoulders formation the measurement calls for a bottom around Dow Jones Industrials 1,000. This is almost an unimaginable event regarding the possible fundamentals to create this scenario. If this did happen, everything that could go wrong would have to go wrong. The reasons range from the absurd to the absurdly absurd. This scenario is so dark that it doesn’t seem possible but nevertheless, the head and shoulders formation is there and will be waiting until we pierce the all-time highs of October 2007.
Remember these are simply possible scenarios and are not embedded in fact. Whatever the outcome, it never hurts to be a little cautious with some of your money. But in the worst case scenario, everything that we take for granted as being safe . . . . would not be safe. This is something to never forget in the event things go very badly.
Hopefully we will never have to think about worst case scenarios other than to have a good laugh at them presently.
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EDSON GOULD
- Edson Gould, Premier Stock Market Strategist – Edson Gould had a profound influence on the development of my techniques and indicators. Prior to me subscribing to his advisory service, I was just one of the crowd.
- After 40 years I still have many of the publications from his advisory service, “Findings & Forecasts”. Fearing the loss of these hard copy reports I have recently scanned and created pdf files of these reports. Now I have hard copies and computerized versions of the reports.
- I have used a technique of his that I found in an obscure reference in one of his reports. It was only mentioned once and never again. I believe that he used this tool extensively and never told the world it’s importance. Prior to my finding this tool, I had been trying unsuccessfully to find a different way to chart the market. When I read about his technique I knew instantly that this was exactly what I had been seeking. I have charted this method back to 1939 and found it to be very useful. There is no mention of it in the reports that I posted below as I have deleted any reference to it. It’s a super secret indicator and I’d have to kill you if I told you about it.
- Edson Gould was truly a legend in his own time. It’s too bad that today most people have forgotten or never heard of him or his discoveries. Below you will find only the first page of these reports. A teaser is what you might call it. The rest of the reports are available upon request. This is a man that deserves to be remembered throughout technical analysis market history.
- The following are links to Edson Gould reports.
- My Most Important Discovery by Edson Gould
- It was also my most important discovery, for it explained the irrational volatility of markets that had mystified me in my early years. During those early years I found nothing worked in predicting these irrational market swings. But the fog lifted after reading this report and I began to understand how to begin predicting the market.
- Edson Gould’s 1974 Forecast
- Gould’s 1974 forecast kept me bearish and short throughout 1974 until the week before Christmas 1974, during which I began making long term purchases. After that it was ride the bull phases that transpired from 1975 to 1982. 1982 to 2000 was the greatest bull market of all time.
- Edson Gould’s 1975 Forecast
- Edson Gould’s 1976 Forecast
- Edson Gould’s 1977 Forecast
- Edson Gould’s Five Year Forecast 1977 to 1982
- This was a remarkable forecast in 1977, where the Dow Industrials had never been higher than 1,000. NO ONE predicted a rise of this magnitude in 1977. Most were waiting for a resumption of the bear market.
- As part of the 1977 to 1982 forecast: On Wednesday August 4, 1982 I went long the market for the first time in months. By Friday, August 6 I was worried that I had made a mistake as I was deep in the red (I was long the Kansas City Stock Market Contracts). The Kansas City Stock Market Contract was the first of the stock index contracts (February 1982). It was based on the Value Line Arithmetic Index, margin requirement were quite low, and it had a multiplier of 100 times the Value Line Arithmetic Index, which meant the leverage was very high. On Friday (Aug 6), my wife and I went to dinner and I told her my tale of woe and whether I should sell my long positions. I explained that my key indicator had reversed and continued higher on Thursday and Friday but the market had continued lower. Since the key indicator was usually correct, we decided to stick it out for a few days more (I was crazy in those days). My key indicator was mentioned by Gould only once in his market letters. If you didn’t catch its importance, too bad, because he only gave you a peek. Prior to Gould writing about this indicator I had been looking for one that had similar characteristics without success. Thus when Gould wrote about it, I recognized instantly that I had struck gold. I have modified this indicator slightly and researched it back to 1939. This was a lot of work as it was before computers and online data (remember when Barrons was available only on paper, still is for the distant past). Meanwhile on Monday August 9, 1982 the market took off like a rocket and never looked back. I skyrocketed out of the red and had a big profit. In August 1982 the only people that were bullish were Edson Gould, Robert Prechter and myself (probably a couple of others but I didn’t know them). Everyone else was extremely bearish. It was a perfect example of crowd behavior.
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TRANSACTION SIGNALS
- All actionable signals are only for short term time frames. These signals are not designed for intermediate or long term time frames BUT . . . . .
- After a short term buy signal, long term tax status can be achieved by a continuation of the upward trend, which causes short term actions to morph into long term holdings.
- See more details in the glossary under “Taxes, Futures Contracts” and “Money Management”.
TRANSACTION RECORD
- In this blog a warning of an impending bottom (or top) is often issued well in advance of the formal buy or sell date. This allows thoughtful consideration prior to a formal action signal. To get a sense of how this works, you should read a few days prior to a formal buy/sell signal. I often buy/sell in my personal account based on the early warnings.
- The transaction record near stock market bottoms will show that I am very skittish and usually remain so until the new direction is well underway.
- Qualified buy signal given from December 5th to December 20th, 2011
- Buy signal in October 2011 was never issued due to a SERIOUS family illness
- SELL – SEPTEMBER 9, 2011
- BUY – AUGUST 30, 2011
- SELL – AUGUST 30, 2011 – Stopped out, re-bought quickly
- BUY – AUGUST 29, 2011
- SELL – AUGUST 25, 2011
- BUY – AUGUST 23, 2011
- SELL – AUGUST 1, 2011
- BUY – JUNE 23, 2011
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MISCELLANEOUS
- There are useful items throughout this blog. For instance, the “Wall Street Quotes” can be very instructive. So make sure and look all through the blog.
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Posted by Bob Karrow
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